| 1. |
- Graham, L. Phil, et al.
(författare)
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Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium
- 2009
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Ingår i: Boreal Environment Research. - 1239-6095. ; 14:1, s. 173-182
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study was to reconstruct river flow to the Baltic Sea using data from different periods during the past thousand years. A hydrological model coupled to simulations from climate models was used to estimate river flow. A "millennium" simulation of past climate from the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model provided climatological inputs. Results from this global model were downscaled with the RCA3 regional climate model over northern Europe. Temperature and precipitation from the downscaled simulation results were then used in the HBV hydrological model to simulate river flows to the Baltic Sea for the periods 1000-1199 and 1551-1929. These were compared with observations for the period 1921-2002. A general conclusion from this work is that although climate has varied during the past millennium, variability in annual river flow to the Baltic Sea does not appear more pronounced in recent years than during the previous millennium, or vice versa.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Kjellstrom, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe
- 2007
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 81, s. 249-265
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records. All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature during summer is smaller than 3 (+/- 5 degrees C) when averaged over most (all) European sub-regions. The simulated changes in extreme temperatures both in summer and winter are larger than changes in the median for large areas. Differences between models are larger for the extremes than for mean temperatures. A comparison with historical data shows that the spread in model predicted changes in extreme temperatures is larger than the natural variability during the last centuries.
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| 4. |
- Meier, Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics
- 2011
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Ingår i: Oceanologia. - 0078-3234. ; 53:1-TI, s. 193-227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate model results for the Baltic Sea region from an ensemble of eight simulations using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model version 3 (RCA3) driven with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs) are compared with results from a downscaled ERA40 simulation and gridded observations from 1980-2006. The results showed that data from RCA3 scenario simulations should not be used as forcing for Baltic Sea models in climate change impact studies because biases of the control climate significantly affect the simulated changes of future projections. For instance, biases of the sea ice cover in RCA3 in the present climate affect the sensitivity of the model's response to changing climate due to the ice-albedo feedback. :From the large ensemble of available RCA3 scenario simulations two GCMs with good performance in downscaling experiments during the control period 1980-2006 were selected. In this study, only the quality of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea was chosen as a selection criterion. For the greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B two transient simulations for 1961 2100 driven by these two GCMs were performed using the regional, fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCAO. It was shown that RCAO has the potential to improve the results in downscaling experiments driven by GCMs considerably, because sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are calculated more realistically with RCAO than when RCA3 has been forced with surface boundary data from GCMs. For instance, the seasonal 2 m air temperature cycle is closer to observations in RCAO than in RCA3 downscaling simulations. However, the parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in RCAO need to be improved.
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| 5. |
- Strandberg, Gustav, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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High-resolution regional simulation of last glacial maximum climate in Europe
- 2011
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 63:1, s. 107-125
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is used to simulate climate conditions during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Forcing conditions include astronomical parameters, greenhouse gases, ice sheets and vegetation. A 50-yr period of the global simulation is dynamically downscaled to 50 km horizontal resolution over Europe with a regional climate model (RCM). A dynamic vegetation model is used to produce vegetation that is consistent with the climate simulated by the RCM. This vegetation is used in a final simulation with the RCM. The resulting climate is 5-10 degrees C colder than the recent past climate (representative of year 1990) over ice-free parts of Europe as an annual average; over the ice-sheet up to 40 degrees C colder in winter." The average model-proxy error is about the same for summer and winter, for pollen-based proxies. The RCM results are within (outside) the uncertainty limits for winter (summer). Sensitivity studies performed with the RCM indicate that the simulated climate is sensitive to changes in vegetation, whereas the location of the ice sheet only affects the climate around the ice sheet. The RCM-simulated interannual variability in near surface temperature is significantly larger at LGM than in the recent past climate.
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| 6. |
- Sveger, Tomas, et al.
(författare)
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Apolipoprotein A-I:B ratio and B screening: a preliminary study of 10- and 11-year-old children
- 1990
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Ingår i: Journal of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition - Jpgn. - 1536-4801. ; 10:2, s. 179-184
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The apolipoprotein (apo) A-I:B ratio and the apo B concentration were determined by radial immunodiffusion in dried blood spot samples from 1,767 10- and 11-year-old children. Children with either apo A-I:B ratios below the first percentile or apo B levels above the 99th were recalled and plasma lipid and apolipoprotein profiles were determined for both children and parents. Of 17 children (one family was lost to follow-up) recalled due to abnormal apo A-I:B ratios, apo B levels were above the 95th percentile in 13 children, and of 18 children with abnormal apo B screening levels (three of them also had abnormal apo A-I:B ratios), the plasma apo B level was elevated in 13 children. The 23 children with abnormal blood lipid and/or apolipoprotein concentrations were divided into two main groups: (a) children with type IIa hyperlipoproteinemia and (b) children with hyperapo B lipoproteinemia (hyperapo B) and normal blood lipid levels. Twelve children had the type IIa pattern. Five children likely had familial hypercholesterolemia (FH), the other seven children may have hypercholesterolemia due to obesity or environmental factors. Eleven children had the hyperapo B abnormality. In four children, the elevated apo B level probably was an indication of the occurrence of familial combined hypercholesterolemia (FCH) in the family. Of the remaining seven hyperapo B children, three children also had a parent with hyperapo B and a fourth family suffered from obesity.
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