| 1. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(author)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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| 2. |
- Gallego-Sala, Angela V., et al.
(author)
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Latitudinal limits to the predicted increase of the peatland carbon sink with warming
- 2018
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 8:10, s. 907-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The carbon sink potential of peatlands depends on the balance of carbon uptake by plants and microbial decomposition. The rates of both these processes will increase with warming but it remains unclear which will dominate the global peatland response. Here we examine the global relationship between peatland carbon accumulation rates during the last millennium and planetary-scale climate space. A positive relationship is found between carbon accumulation and cumulative photosynthetically active radiation during the growing season for mid- to high-latitude peatlands in both hemispheres. However, this relationship reverses at lower latitudes, suggesting that carbon accumulation is lower under the warmest climate regimes. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate that the present-day global sink will increase slightly until around AD 2100 but decline thereafter. Peatlands will remain a carbon sink in the future, but their response to warming switches from a negative to a positive climate feedback (decreased carbon sink with warming) at the end of the twenty-first century.
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| 3. |
- Karyotaki, Eirini, et al.
(author)
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Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Depression : A Systematic Review and Individual Patient Data Network Meta-analysis
- 2021
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In: JAMA psychiatry. - : American Medical Association. - 2168-6238 .- 2168-622X. ; 78:4, s. 361-371
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: Personalized treatment choices would increase the effectiveness of internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) for depression to the extent that patients differ in interventions that better suit them.OBJECTIVE: To provide personalized estimates of short-term and long-term relative efficacy of guided and unguided iCBT for depression using patient-level information.DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, Embase, PsycInfo, and Cochrane Library to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) published up to January 1, 2019.STUDY SELECTION: Eligible RCTs were those comparing guided or unguided iCBT against each other or against any control intervention in individuals with depression. Available individual patient data (IPD) was collected from all eligible studies. Depression symptom severity was assessed after treatment, 6 months, and 12 months after randomization.DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We conducted a systematic review and IPD network meta-analysis and estimated relative treatment effect sizes across different patient characteristics through IPD network meta-regression.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores.RESULTS: Of 42 eligible RCTs, 39 studies comprising 9751 participants with depression contributed IPD to the IPD network meta-analysis, of which 8107 IPD were synthesized. Overall, both guided and unguided iCBT were associated with more effectiveness as measured by PHQ-9 scores than control treatments over the short term and the long term. Guided iCBT was associated with more effectiveness than unguided iCBT (mean difference [MD] in posttreatment PHQ-9 scores, -0.8; 95% CI, -1.4 to -0.2), but we found no evidence of a difference at 6 or 12 months following randomization. Baseline depression was found to be the most important modifier of the relative association for efficacy of guided vs unguided iCBT. Differences between unguided and guided iCBT in people with baseline symptoms of subthreshold depression (PHQ-9 scores 5-9) were small, while guided iCBT was associated with overall better outcomes in patients with baseline PHQ-9 greater than 9.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this network meta-analysis with IPD, guided iCBT was associated with more effectiveness than unguided iCBT for individuals with depression, benefits were more substantial in individuals with moderate to severe depression. Unguided iCBT was associated with similar effectiveness among individuals with symptoms of mild/subthreshold depression. Personalized treatment selection is entirely possible and necessary to ensure the best allocation of treatment resources for depression.
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| 4. |
- Furukawa, Toshi A., et al.
(author)
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Dismantling, optimising, and personalising internet cognitive behavioural therapy for depression : a systematic review and component network meta-analysis using individual data
- 2021
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In: Lancet psychiatry. - London, United Kingdom : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 8:6, s. 500-511
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Findings We identified 76 RCTs, including 48 trials contributing individual participant data (11 704 participants) and 28 trials with aggregate data (6474 participants). The participants' weighted mean age was 42.0 years and 12 406 (71%) of 17 521 reported were women. There was suggestive evidence that behavioural activation might be beneficial (iMD -1.83 [95% credible interval (CrI) -2.90 to -0.80]) and that relaxation might be harmful (1.20 [95% CrI 0.17 to 2.27]). Baseline severity emerged as the strongest prognostic factor for endpoint depression. Combining human and automated encouragement reduced dropouts from treatment (incremental odds ratio, 0.32 [95% CrI 0.13 to 0.93]). The risk of bias was low for the randomisation process, missing outcome data, or selection of reported results in most of the included studies, uncertain for deviation from intended interventions, and high for measurement of outcomes. There was moderate to high heterogeneity among the studies and their components. 511
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| 5. |
- Karyotaki, Eirini, et al.
(author)
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Do guided internet-based interventions result in clinically relevant changes for patients with depression? : An individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2018
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In: Clinical Psychology Review. - : Elsevier. - 0272-7358 .- 1873-7811. ; 63, s. 80-92
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Little is known about clinically relevant changes in guided Internet-based interventions for depression. Moreover, methodological and power limitations preclude the identification of patients' groups that may benefit more from these interventions. This study aimed to investigate response rates, remission rates, and their moderators in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the effect of guided Internet-based interventions for adult depression to control groups using an individual patient data meta-analysis approach. Literature searches in PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO and Cochrane Library resulted in 13,384 abstracts from database inception to January 1, 2016. Twenty-four RCTs (4889 participants) comparing a guided Internet-based intervention with a control group contributed data to the analysis. Missing data were multiply imputed. To examine treatment outcome on response and remission, mixed-effects models with participants nested within studies were used. Response and remission rates were calculated using the Reliable Change Index. The intervention group obtained significantly higher response rates (OR = 2.49, 95% CI 2.17-2.85) and remission rates compared to controls (OR = 2.41, 95% CI 2.07-2.79). The moderator analysis indicated that older participants (OR = 1.01) and native-born participants (1.66) were more likely to respond to treatment compared to younger participants and ethnic minorities respectively. Age (OR = 1.01) and ethnicity (1.73) also moderated the effects of treatment on remission.Moreover, adults with more severe depressive symptoms at baseline were more likely to remit after receiving intemet-based treatment (OR = 1.19). Guided Internet-based interventions lead to substantial positive treatment effects on treatment response and remission at post-treatment. Thus, such interventions may complement existing services for depression and potentially reduce the gap between the need and provision of evidence-based treatments.
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| 6. |
- Klein, Robert M., et al.
(author)
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Baltics Left of Bang : the Role of NATO with Partners in Denial-Based Deterrence
- 2019
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s military contribution to deter Russian aggression in the Baltic region should begin with an overall strategic concept that seamlessly transitions from deterrence through countering Russia’s gray zone activities and onto conventional war, only if necessary. NATO should augment its ongoing program to enhance the denial-based deterrence for the region with threats of punishment that demonstrate to Russian leaders they cannot achieve their aims at acceptable costs. Rather than forward-position military forces in the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), NATO should consider keeping forces further back to take advantage of strategic depth to limit vulnerability to Russian attack and increase operational flexibility. To support the overall denial-based deterrence concept, the Baltics must commit wholeheartedly to the concept of total defense including significant increases to their active and reserves forces.
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| 7. |
- Klein, Paul
(author)
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Papers on the macroeconomics of fiscal policy
- 1997
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This thesis consists of six independent papers, which are summarized as follows."Stochastic Fiscal Policy and the Swedish Business Cycle" shows that fluctuations in distortive taxes can account for some of the key features of the Swedish post-war business cycle. The empirical fit of a simple stochastic growth model is found to significantly improve when it is amended to include imperfectly predictable fluctuations in payroll taxes, consumption taxes and government consumption."Swedish Income Taxes 1951-1990" reconstructs Swedish income tax schedules for the years 1951-1990. The main finding is that tax schedules can be very well approximated by an isoelastic function."The Relationship Between Money and Interest Rates: How Well Do Equilibrium Models Perform?" studies the extent to which dynamic monetary equilibrium models can account for the differences in the character of the money demand curve between Sweden and the United States. The main finding is that they can account for the main properties of the data remarkably well."The Welfare Costs of Stochastic Distortionary Taxation" presents estimates of the welfare costs of distortionary taxation (including inflation) calculated by using general equilbirium models calibrated for the United States and Sweden. The main finding is that the total welfare costs of the distortionary taxes are about five times higher in Sweden than in the United States."The Welfare Gains From Optimal Tax Reform" attempts to calculate how much the representative household in the United States would gain by a transition from current fiscal and monetary policy to a Ramsey optimal tax and inflation policy, which finances given government purchases and transfer payments in the most efficient way possible. I find that those gains correspond to an increment in consumption of about 3.8 percent."Using the Generalized Schur Form to Solve a System of Linear Expectational Difference Equations" presents a quick and convenient way of solving systems of linear expectational difference equations. It also presents very weak sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique solution.
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| 8. |
- Kowalski, Przemysław, et al.
(author)
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China’s 10 Years in the WTO : Sustaining Openness-based Growth into the Future
- 2012
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In: China in Focus. - Paris : OECD Publishing. ; , s. 50-71
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Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- China’s WTO accession led to deep structural changes that are at the core of its transformation towards a modern market-based economy. In order to sustain high growth and its position in the global economy, China needs to continue with—and in some areas accelerate—structural reforms. This includes removing remaining pockets of border and behind-the-border protection, progressive reforms of the state-owned enterprise sector and agriculture, as well as rethinking of its strategy with respect to raw materials markets. Reforms of services sectors, in particular, will be key to avoid the pitfalls of middle-income transition. If China is to achieve in services trade what it has accomplished in manufacturing then it needs to reform its services sector in the same spirit as it has done with its manufacturing sector. Liberalised business services will facilitate and accelerate the process of moving up the value chain; reforms of telecommunications will foster the information economy; and, access to better and more efficient financial services will support the development process in general.
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| 9. |
- ODonnell, Michael, et al.
(author)
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Registered Replication Report: Dijksterhuis and van Knippenberg (1998)
- 2018
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In: Perspectives on Psychological Science. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD. - 1745-6916 .- 1745-6924. ; 13:2, s. 268-294
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Dijksterhuis and van Knippenberg (1998) reported that participants primed with a category associated with intelligence (professor) subsequently performed 13% better on a trivia test than participants primed with a category associated with a lack of intelligence (soccer hooligans). In two unpublished replications of this study designed to verify the appropriate testing procedures, Dijksterhuis, van Knippenberg, and Holland observed a smaller difference between conditions (2%-3%) as well as a gender difference: Men showed the effect (9.3% and 7.6%), but women did not (0.3% and -0.3%). The procedure used in those replications served as the basis for this multilab Registered Replication Report. A total of 40 laboratories collected data for this project, and 23 of these laboratories met all inclusion criteria. Here we report the meta-analytic results for those 23 direct replications (total N = 4,493), which tested whether performance on a 30-item general-knowledge trivia task differed between these two priming conditions (results of supplementary analyses of the data from all 40 labs, N = 6,454, are also reported). We observed no overall difference in trivia performance between participants primed with the professor category and those primed with the hooligan category (0.14%) and no moderation by gender.
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| 10. |
- Pfeiffer, Thomas, et al.
(author)
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Predicting the replicability of social and behavioural science claims in a crisis: The COVID-19 Preprint Replication Project
- 2023
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Replications are important for assessing the reliability of published findings. However, they are costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything. Accurate, fast, lower-cost alternatives such as eliciting predictions could accelerate assessment for rapid policy implementation in a crisis. We elicited judgments from participants on 100 claims from preprints about an emerging area of research (COVID-19 pandemic) using an interactive structured elicitation protocol, and we conducted 29 new high-powered replications. After interacting with their peers, participant groups with lower task expertise (‘beginners’) updated their estimates and confidence in their judgements significantly more than groups with greater task expertise (‘experienced’). For experienced individuals, the average accuracy was 0.57 (95% CI: [0.53, 0.61]) after interaction, and they correctly classified 61% of claims; beginners’ average accuracy was 0.58 (95% CI: [0.54, 0.62]), correctly classifying 69% of claims. The difference in accuracy between groups was not statistically significant, and their judgments on the full set of claims were correlated (r=.48). These results suggest that both beginners and more experienced participants using a structured process have some ability to make better-than-chance predictions about the reliability of ‘fast science’ under conditions of high uncertainty. However, given the importance of such assessments for making evidence-based critical decisions in a crisis, more research is required to understand who the right experts in forecasting replicability are and how their judgements ought to be elicited.
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