| 1. |
- Chadburn, Sarah E., et al.
(författare)
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Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes : using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 14:22, s. 5143-5169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI), the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our analysis suggests that an improved simulation of photosynthesis would also lead to an improved simulation of soil carbon stocks. However, the stocks are also influenced by soil carbon burial (e.g. through cryoturbation) and the rate of heterotrophic respiration, which depends on the soil physical state. More detailed below-ground measurements are needed to fully evaluate biological and physical soil processes. Furthermore, even if these processes are well modelled, the soil carbon profiles cannot resemble peat layers as peat accumulation processes are not represented in the models. Thus, we identify three priority areas for model development: (1) dynamic vegetation including (a) climate and (b) nutrient limitation effects; (2) adding moss as a plant functional type; and an (3) improved vertical profile of soil carbon including peat processes.
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| 2. |
- Colleoni, Florence, 1983-, et al.
(författare)
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Influence of regional factors on the surface mass balance of the large Eurasian ice sheet during the peak Saalian (140 kyrs BP)
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global and Planetary Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8181 .- 1872-6364. ; 68:1-2, s. 132-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent geologically-based reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet show that during the peak Saalian (≈ 140 kya) the ice sheet was larger over Eurasia than during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at ≈ 21 kya. To address this problem we use the LMDZ4 atmospheric general circulation model to evaluate the impact on the Saalian ice sheet's surface mass balance (SMB) from proglacial lakes, dust deposition on snow, vegetation and sea surface temperatures (SST) since geological records suggest that these environmental parameters were different during the two glacial periods. Seven model simulations have been carried out. Dust deposition decreases the mean SMB by intensifying surface melt during summer while proglacial lakes cool the summer climate and reduce surface melt on the ice sheet. A simulation including both proglacial lakes and dust shows that the presence of the former parameter reduces the impact of the latter, in particular, during summer. A switch from needle-leaf to tundra vegetation affects the regional climate but not enough to significantly influence the SMB of the nearby ice margin. However, a steady-state vegetation in equilibrium with the climate should be computed to improve the boundary conditions for further evaluations of the vegetation impact on the ice sheet's SMB. Finally, changes of the SST broadly affect the regional climate with significant consequences for the SMB.
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| 3. |
- Colleoni, Florence, 1983-, et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of the Late Saalian (140 kyrs BP) and LGM (21 kyrs BP) Eurasian ice sheet surface mass balance to vegetation feedbacks
- 2009
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 36
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This work uses an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) asynchronously coupled to an equilibrium vegetation model to investigate whether vegetation feedbacks could be one of the reasons why the Late Saalian ice sheet (140 kyrs BP) in Eurasia was substantially larger than the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 kyrs BP) Eurasian ice sheet. The modeled vegetation changes induce a regional cooling for the Late Saalian while they cause a slight regional warming for LGM. As a result, ablation along the margins of the Late Saalian ice sheet is significantly reduced, leading to an increased surface mass balance, while there are no significant mass balance changes observed from vegetation feedbacks at LGM.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Colleoni, Florence, et al.
(författare)
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The Late Saalian period (160 - 140 ka): insight on an unusual glaciation
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This work focuses on the climate evolution over the Late Saalian period (160 - 140 ka) over Eurasia. At this time, the Eurasian ice sheet was larger and higher than during the Last Glacial Maximum. June insolation over the high latitudes presents a large fluctuation over this period: two glacial minima toward 160 and 140 ka and a large insolation peak toward 150 ka. From the geological evidence chronology, it seems clear that the large Eurasian ice sheet already reached its maximum extent at 160 ka. To understand how this ice sheet could survive the 150 ka June insolation maximum, we use several numerical models to simulate the evolution of the vegetation cover, the surface ocean temperatures and finally the evolution of the Late Saalian climate over the three time slices 140, 150 and 160 ka. Results show that the Late Saalian climate variations are dominated by orbital forcings, responding to a large eccentricity enhancing the precession effect especially at 140 ka. From 160 to 150 ka, the surface ocean exhibits open water conditions in the North At- lantic during summer while sea surface temperature at 140 ka are clearly colder with a large sea ice extent reaching 40◦ N in both the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. This corresponds to a milder climate before 140 ka inducing a larger positive surface mass balance despite the 150 ka insolation peak because of larger precipitation rates. On the contrary, the drastic cooling caused by the astronomical forcing at 140 ka leads to a drier climate cancelling ablation and reducing the accumulation over the ice sheet.
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| 6. |
- Colleoni, Florence, et al.
(författare)
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The sensitivity of the Late Saalian (140 ka) and LGM (21 ka) Eurasian ice sheets to sea surface conditions
- 2011
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 37:3-4, s. 531-553
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This work focuses on the Late Saalian (140 ka) Eurasian ice sheets’ surface mass balance (SMB) sensitivity to changes in sea surface temperatures (SST). An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), forced with two preexisting Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka) SST reconstructions, is used to compute climate at 140 and 21 ka (reference glaciation). Contrary to the LGM, the ablation almost stopped at 140 ka due to the climatic cooling effect from the large ice sheet topography. Late Saalian SST are simulated using an AGCM coupled with a mixed layer ocean. Compared to the LGM, these 140 ka SST show an inter-hemispheric asymmetry caused by the larger ice-albedo feedback, cooling climate. The resulting Late Saalian ice sheet SMB is smaller due to the extensive simulated sea ice reducing the precipitation. In conclusion, SST are important for the stability and growth of the Late Saalian Eurasian ice sheet.
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| 7. |
- Li, Zhao, et al.
(författare)
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Non-uniform seasonal warming regulates vegetation greening and atmospheric CO2 amplification over northern lands
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 13:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The enhanced vegetation growth by climate warming plays a pivotal role in amplifying the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at northern lands (>50° N) since 1960s. However, the correlation between vegetation growth, temperature and seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 concentration have become elusive with the slowed increasing trend of vegetation growth and weakened temperature control on CO2 uptake since late 1990s. Here, based on in situ atmospheric CO2 concentration records from the Barrow observatory site, we found a slowdown in the increasing trend of the atmospheric CO2 amplitude from 1990s to mid-2000s. This phenomenon was associated with the paused decrease in the minimum CO2 concentration ([CO2]min), which was significantly correlated with the slowdown of vegetation greening and growing-season length extension. We then showed that both the vegetation greenness and growing-season length were positively correlated with spring but not autumn temperature over the northern lands. Furthermore, such asymmetric dependences of vegetation growth upon spring and autumn temperature cannot be captured by the state-of-art terrestrial biosphere models. These findings indicate that the responses of vegetation growth to spring and autumn warming are asymmetric, and highlight the need of improving autumn phenology in the models for predicting seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
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| 8. |
- McGuire, A. David, et al.
(författare)
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Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
- 2016
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 30:7, s. 1015-1037
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8x10(3)km(2)yr(-1)). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954TgCyr(-1) between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982-2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.
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| 9. |
- Qiu, Chunjing, et al.
(författare)
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ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:2, s. 497-519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 Combining double low line 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF Combining double low line 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 Combining double low line 0.78, MEF Combining double low line 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 Combining double low line 0.42, MEF Combining double low line 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 Combining double low line 0.38, MEF Combining double low line 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2<0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.
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| 10. |
- Wang, Wenli, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of air-soil temperature relationships simulated by land surface models during winter across the permafrost region
- 2016
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Ingår i: Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0416. ; 10:4, s. 1721-1737
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20 cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models, and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large cross-model differences in the simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures (ΔT; 3 to 14 °C), in the sensitivity of soil-to-air temperature (0.13 to 0.96 °C °C-1), and in the relationship between ΔT and snow depth. The observed relationship between ΔT and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, hence guide improvements to the model's conceptual structure and process parameterisations. Models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (13.19 to 15.77 million km2). However, there is not a simple relationship between the sophistication of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, because several other factors, such as soil depth used in the models, the treatment of soil organic matter content, hydrology and vegetation cover, also affect the simulated permafrost distribution.
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