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Sökning: WFRF:(Kuhry Peter) > Christensen Torben R.

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1.
  • Abbott, Benjamin W., et al. (författare)
  • Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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2.
  • Lindgren, Amelie, et al. (författare)
  • GIS-based Maps and Area Estimates of Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Extent during the Last Glacial Maximum
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. - : Wiley. - 1045-6740 .- 1099-1530. ; 27:1, s. 6-16
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study presents GIS-based estimates of permafrost extent in the northern circumpolar region during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), based on a review of previously published maps and compilations of field evidence in the form of ice-wedge pseudomorphs and relict sand wedges. We focus on field evidence localities in areas thought to have been located along the past southern border of permafrost. We present different reconstructions of permafrost extent, with areal estimates of exposed sea shelf, ice sheets and glaciers, to assess areas of minimum, likely and maximum permafrost extents. The GIS-based mapping of these empirical reconstructions allows us to estimate the likely area of northern permafrost during the LGM as 34.5 million km(2) (which includes 4.7 million km(2) of permafrost on exposed coastal sea shelves). The minimum estimate is 32.7 million km(2) and the maximum estimate is 35.3 million km(2). The extent of LGM permafrost is estimated to have been between c. 9.1 to 11.7 million km(2) larger than its current extent on land (23.6 million km(2)). However, 2.4 million km(2) of the lost land area currently remains as subsea permafrost on the submerged coastal shelves. The LGM permafrost extent in the northern circumpolar region during the LGM was therefore about 33 percent larger than at present. The net loss of northern permafrost since the LGM is due to its disappearance in large parts of Eurasia, which is not compensated for by gains in North America in areas formerly covered by the Laurentide ice sheet.
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