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1.
  • Fullman, Nancy, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>Background: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.</p><p>Methods: Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0–100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita.</p><p>Findings: In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8–98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9–97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5–97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1–24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3–23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2–26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1–93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4–53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6–68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3–38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries.</p><p>Interpretation: GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view—and subsequent provision—of quality health care for all populations.</p>
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2.
  • Fullman, Nancy, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>Background: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.</p><p>Methods: Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita.</p><p>Findings: In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries.</p><p>Interpretation: GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations.</p>
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3.
  • Barber, Ryan M., et al. (författare)
  • Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world.</p>
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4.
  • Choudhary, Anita, et al. (författare)
  • Effect of yoga versus light exercise to improve well-being and promote healthy aging among older adults in central india a study protocol for a randomized controlled trial
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Geriatrics (Basel, Switzerland). - 2308-3417. ; 4:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p><strong>BACKGROUND:</strong> Aging is a natural process associated with many functional and structural changes. These changes may include impaired self-regulation, changes in tissues and organs. Aging also affects mood, physical status and social activity. There are adverse changes in cognitive behavior, perceived sensation and thinking processes. Regular physical activity can alleviate many health problems; yet, many older adults are inactive. Yoga is one of the scientific and popular lifestyle practice considered as the integration of mind, body and soul. Results of previous studies reported positive effects of yoga on multiple health outcomes in elderly. However, there is scarcity of scientific information where yoga's effect is examined on over well-being and on multiple health outcomes simultaneously in elderly. This protocol describes methods for a 12-week yoga-based intervention exploring the effects of yoga on well-being in physically inactive elderly living in community. Methods and analysis: This two group parallel single blind randomized controlled trial that will be conducted at a designated facility of R.D. Gardi Medical College, Ujjain, Madhya Pradesh, Central India. A 12-week 60-min yoga intervention three times weekly is designed. Comparison group participants will undergo a 60-min program comprising light exercise focusing on conventional stretching to improve mobility. After screening, 144 participants aged 60-80 years will be recruited. The primary outcome is subjective well-being. Secondary outcomes include mobility, fall risk, cognition, anxiety and depression, mood and stress, sleep quality, pain, physical activity/sedentary behavior and cardio-metabolic risk factors. Assessments will be conducted at baseline (0 week), after the intervention (12+1 week) and at follow-up (36+1 week). Intention-to-treat analyses with mixed linear modeling will be applied.</p><p><strong>DISCUSSION:</strong> Through this trial, we aim to determine whether elderly people in the intervention group practicing yoga show more favorable primary (well-being) and secondary outcomes than those in the light exercise focusing on conventional stretching group. We assume that yoga may be practiced to maintain health, reduce particular symptoms commonly associated with skeletal pain, assist in pain relief and enhance well-being. We anticipate that practicing yoga will improve well-being and mental health and may lead to significant improvement in depression, pain and sleep quality.Ethics and dissemination: This study is approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of R.D. Gardi Medical College, Ujjain, IEC Ref No. 09/2018. All participants would be provided with written and verbal information about the purpose of the project and would be free to withdraw from the study at any time. Refusal to participate in the study would not have any negative consequences. Confidentiality of the information of each participant would be ensured. Knowledge obtained would be disseminated to stakeholders through workshops, meetings and relevant scientific conferences.</p><p><strong>TRIAL REGISTRATION:</strong> The trial is prospectively registered with the Indian Council of Medical Research Trial Registry CTRI/2018/07/015051.</p>
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5.
  • Choudhary, Anita, et al. (författare)
  • Effect of Yoga versus Light Exercise to Improve Well-Being and Promote Healthy Aging among Older Adults in Central India A Study Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: GERIATRICS. - MDPI. - 2308-3417. ; 4:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>Background: Aging is a natural process associated with many functional and structural changes. These changes may include impaired self-regulation, changes in tissues and organs. Aging also affects mood, physical status and social activity. There are adverse changes in cognitive behavior, perceived sensation and thinking processes. Regular physical activity can alleviate many health problems; yet, many older adults are inactive. Yoga is one of the scientific and popular lifestyle practice considered as the integration of mind, body and soul. Results of previous studies reported positive effects of yoga on multiple health outcomes in elderly. However, there is scarcity of scientific information where yoga's effect is examined on over well-being and on multiple health outcomes simultaneously in elderly. This protocol describes methods for a 12-week yoga-based intervention exploring the effects of yoga on well-being in physically inactive elderly living in community.</p><p>Methods and analysis: This two group parallel single blind randomized controlled trial that will be conducted at a designated facility of R.D. Gardi Medical College, Ujjain, Madhya Pradesh, Central India. A 12-week 60-min yoga intervention three times weekly is designed. Comparison group participants will undergo a 60-min program comprising light exercise focusing on conventional stretching to improve mobility. After screening, 144 participants aged 60-80 years will be recruited. The primary outcome is subjective well-being. Secondary outcomes include mobility, fall risk, cognition, anxiety and depression, mood and stress, sleep quality, pain, physical activity/sedentary behavior and cardio-metabolic risk factors. Assessments will be conducted at baseline (0 week), after the intervention (12+1 week) and at follow-up (36+1 week). Intention-to-treat analyses with mixed linear modeling will be applied.</p><p>Discussion: Through this trial, we aim to determine whether elderly people in the intervention group practicing yoga show more favorable primary (well-being) and secondary outcomes than those in the light exercise focusing on conventional stretching group. We assume that yoga may be practiced to maintain health, reduce particular symptoms commonly associated with skeletal pain, assist in pain relief and enhance well-being. We anticipate that practicing yoga will improve well-being and mental health and may lead to significant improvement in depression, pain and sleep quality.</p><p>Ethics and dissemination: This study is approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of R.D. Gardi Medical College, Ujjain, IEC Ref No. 09/2018. All participants would be provided with written and verbal information about the purpose of the project and would be free to withdraw from the study at any time. Refusal to participate in the study would not have any negative consequences. Confidentiality of the information of each participant would be ensured. Knowledge obtained would be disseminated to stakeholders through workshops, meetings and relevant scientific conferences.</p><p>Trial Registration: The trial is prospectively registered with the Indian Council of Medical Research Trial Registry CTRI/2018/07/015051.</p>
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6.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas, et al. (författare)
  • Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015 : Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - AMER MEDICAL ASSOC. - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 171:6, s. 573-592
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p><strong>Importance:</strong> Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.</p><p><strong>Objective:</strong> To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.</p><p><strong>Evidence Review:</strong> Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.</p><p><strong>Findings:</strong> Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.</p><p><strong>Conclusions and Relevance:</strong> Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.</p>
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7.
  • Kinyoki, Damaris K., et al. (författare)
  • Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature. - Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 577:7789, s. 231-234
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0-59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization's median growth reference standards for a healthy population. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces); the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped highspatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrativelevel units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications.</p>
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8.
  • Murray, Christopher J L, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; :9947, s. 1005-1070
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p><strong>BACKGROUND:</strong> The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.</p><p><strong>METHODS:</strong> To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.</p><p><strong>FINDINGS:</strong> Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.</p><p><strong>INTERPRETATION:</strong> Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.</p><p></p>
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9.
  • Roth, Gregory A, et al. (författare)
  • Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015.
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 70:1, s. 1-25
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p><strong>BACKGROUND:</strong> The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world.</p><p><strong>OBJECTIVES:</strong> The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.</p><p><strong>METHODS:</strong> CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.</p><p><strong>RESULTS:</strong> In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI &gt;0.75.</p><p><strong>CONCLUSIONS:</strong> CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.</p>
  •  
10.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p><strong>BACKGROUND:</strong> Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.</p><p><strong>METHODS:</strong> For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.</p><p><strong>FINDINGS:</strong> Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.</p><p><strong>INTERPRETATION:</strong> Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.</p><p><strong></strong></p>
  •  
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