| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Pattaro, Cristian, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic associations at 53 loci highlight cell types and biological pathways relevant for kidney function
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reduced glomerular filtration rate defines chronic kidney disease and is associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), combining data across 133,413 individuals with replication in up to 42,166 individuals. We identify 24 new and confirm 29 previously identified loci. Of these 53 loci, 19 associate with eGFR among individuals with diabetes. Using bioinformatics, we show that identified genes at eGFR loci are enriched for expression in kidney tissues and in pathways relevant for kidney development and transmembrane transporter activity, kidney structure, and regulation of glucose metabolism. Chromatin state mapping and DNase I hypersensitivity analyses across adult tissues demonstrate preferential mapping of associated variants to regulatory regions in kidney but not extra-renal tissues. These findings suggest that genetic determinants of eGFR are mediated largely through direct effects within the kidney and highlight important cell types and biological pathways.
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| 4. |
- Chapuis, Julien, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide, high-content siRNA screening identifies the Alzheimer’s genetic risk factor FERMT2 as a major modulator of APP metabolism
- 2017
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Ingår i: Acta Neuropathologica. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0001-6322 .- 1432-0533. ; 133:6, s. 955-966
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified 19 susceptibility loci for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). However, understanding how these genes are involved in the pathophysiology of AD is one of the main challenges of the “post-GWAS” era. At least 123 genes are located within the 19 susceptibility loci; hence, a conventional approach (studying the genes one by one) would not be time- and cost-effective. We therefore developed a genome-wide, high-content siRNA screening approach and used it to assess the functional impact of gene under-expression on APP metabolism. We found that 832 genes modulated APP metabolism. Eight of these genes were located within AD susceptibility loci. Only FERMT2 (a β3-integrin co-activator) was also significantly associated with a variation in cerebrospinal fluid Aβ peptide levels in 2886 AD cases. Lastly, we showed that the under-expression of FERMT2 increases Aβ peptide production by raising levels of mature APP at the cell surface and facilitating its recycling. Taken as a whole, our data suggest that FERMT2 modulates the AD risk by regulating APP metabolism and Aβ peptide production.
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| 5. |
- Elbaz, Alexis, et al.
(författare)
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Independent and Joint Effects of the MAPT and SNCA Genes in Parkinson Disease
- 2011
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Ingår i: Annals of Neurology. - : Wiley. - 1531-8249 .- 0364-5134. ; 69:5, s. 778-792
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: We studied the independent and joint effects of the genes encoding alpha-synuclein (SNCA) and microtubule-associated protein tau (MAPT) in Parkinson disease (PD) as part of a large meta-analysis of individual data from case-control studies participating in the Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's Disease (GEO-PD) consortium. Methods: Participants of Caucasian ancestry were genotyped for a total of 4 SNCA (rs2583988, rs181489, rs356219, rs11931074) and 2 MAPT (rs1052553, rs242557) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs). Individual and joint effects of SNCA and MAPT SNPs were investigated using fixed- and random-effects logistic regression models. Interactions were studied on both a multiplicative and an additive scale, and using a case-control and case-only approach. Results: Fifteen GEO-PD sites contributed a total of 5,302 cases and 4,161 controls. All 4 SNCA SNPs and the MAPT H1-haplotype-defining SNP (rs1052553) displayed a highly significant marginal association with PD at the significance level adjusted for multiple comparisons. For SNCA, the strongest associations were observed for SNPs located at the 30 end of the gene. There was no evidence of statistical interaction between any of the 4 SNCA SNPs and rs1052553 or rs242557, neither on the multiplicative nor on the additive scale. Interpretation: This study confirms the association between PD and both SNCA SNPs and the H1 MAPT haplotype. It shows, based on a variety of approaches, that the joint action of variants in these 2 loci is consistent with independent effects of the genes without additional interacting effects. ANN NEUROL 2011; 69: 778-792
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| 6. |
- Evangelou, Evangelos, et al.
(författare)
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Non-replication of association for six polymorphisms from meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of Parkinson's disease : large-scale collaborative study
- 2010
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Ingår i: American Journal of Medical Genetics, Part B: Neuropsychiatric Genetics. - : Wiley. - 1552-4841 .- 1552-485X. ; 153B:1, s. 8-220
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Early genome-wide association (GWA) studies on Parkinson's disease (PD) have not been able to yield conclusive, replicable signals of association, perhaps due to limited sample size. We aimed to investigate whether association signals derived from the meta-analysis of the first two GWA investigations might be replicable in different populations. We examined six single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs1000291, rs1865997, rs2241743, rs2282048, rs2313982, and rs3018626) that had reached nominal significance with at least two of three different strategies proposed in a previous analysis of the original GWA studies. Investigators from the "Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's Disease" (GEOPD) consortium were invited to join in this study. Ten teams contributed replication data from 3,458 PD cases and 3,719 controls. The data from the two previously published GWAs (599 PD cases, 592 controls and 443 sibling pairs) were considered as well. All data were synthesized using both fixed and random effects models. The summary allelic odds ratios were ranging from 0.97 to 1.09 by random effects, when all data were included. The summary estimates of the replication data sets (excluding the original GWA data) were very close to 1.00 (range 0.98-1.09) and none of the effects were nominally statistically significant. The replication data sets had significantly different results than the GWA data. Our data do not support evidence that any of these six SNPs reflect susceptibility markers for PD. Much stronger signals of statistical significance in GWA platforms are needed to have substantial chances of replication. Specifically in PD genetics, this would require much larger GWA studies and perhaps novel analytical techniques.
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| 7. |
- Krüger, Rejko, et al.
(författare)
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A large-scale genetic association study to evaluate the contribution of Omi/HtrA2 (PARK13) to Parkinson's disease
- 2011
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Ingår i: Neurobiology of Aging. - : Elsevier BV. - 1558-1497 .- 0197-4580. ; 32:3, s. 9-548
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High-profile studies have provided conflicting results regarding the involvement of the Omi/HtrA2 gene in Parkinson's disease (PD) susceptibility. Therefore, we performed a large-scale analysis of the association of common Omi/HtrA2 variants in the Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's disease (GEO-PD) consortium. GEO-PD sites provided clinical and genetic data including affection status, gender, ethnicity, age at study, age at examination (all subjects); age at onset and family history of PD (patients). Genotyping was performed for the five most informative SNPs spanning the Omi/HtrA2 gene in approximately 2-3 kb intervals (rs10779958, rs2231250, rs72470544, rs1183739, rs2241028). Fixed as well as random effect models were used to provide summary risk estimates of Omi/HtrA2 variants. The 20 GEO-PD sites provided data for 6378 cases and 8880 controls. No overall significant associations for the five Omi/HtrA2 SNPs and PD were observed using either fixed effect or random effect models. The summary odds ratios ranged between 0.98 and 1.08 and the estimates of between-study heterogeneity were not large (non-significant Q statistics for all 5 SNPs; I(2) estimates 0-28%). Trends for association were seen for participants of Scandinavian descent for rs2241028 (OR 1.41, p=0.04) and for rs1183739 for age at examination (cut-off 65 years; OR 1.17, p=0.02), but these would not be significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons and their Bayes factors were only modest. This largest association study performed to define the role of any gene in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease revealed no overall strong association of Omi/HtrA2 variants with PD in populations worldwide.
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