| 1. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(författare)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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| 2. |
- Brovkin, Victor, et al.
(författare)
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Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:8, s. 550-558
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- A synthesis of intervals of rapid climatic change evident in the geological record reveals some of the Earth system processes and tipping points that could lead to similar events in the future. The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate-ecological-social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.
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| 3. |
- Fischer, Hubertus, et al.
(författare)
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Reconstruction of millennial changes in dust emission, transport and regional sea ice coverage using the deep EPICA ice cores from the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sector of Antarctica
- 2007
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Ingår i: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-821X. ; 260, s. 340-354
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Continuous sea salt and mineral dust aerosol records have been studied on the two EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring inAntarctica) deep ice cores. The joint use of these records from opposite sides of the East Antarctic plateau allows for an estimate ofchanges in dust transport and emission intensity as well as for the identification of regional differences in the sea salt aerosolsource. The mineral dust flux records at both sites show a strong coherency over the last 150 kyr related to dust emission changes inthe glacial Patagonian dust source with three times higher dust fluxes in the Atlantic compared to the Indian Ocean sector of theSouthern Ocean (SO). Using a simple conceptual transport model this indicates that transport can explain only 40% of theatmospheric dust concentration changes in Antarctica, while factor 5–10 changes occurred. Accordingly, the main cause for the strong glacial dust flux changes in Antarctica must lie in environmental changes in Patagonia. Dust emissions, hence environmentalconditions in Patagonia, were very similar during the last two glacials and interglacials, respectively, despite 2–4 °C warmertemperatures recorded in Antarctica during the penultimate interglacial than today. 2–3 times higher sea salt fluxes found in bothice cores in the glacial compared to the Holocene are difficult to reconcile with a largely unchanged transport intensity and thedistant open ocean source. The substantial glacial enhancements in sea salt aerosol fluxes can be readily explained assuming sea iceformation as the main sea salt aerosol source with a significantly larger expansion of (summer) sea ice in the Weddell Sea than inthe Indian Ocean sector. During the penultimate interglacial, our sea salt records point to a 50% reduction of winter sea icecoverage compared to the Holocene both in the Indian and Atlantic Ocean sector of the SO. However, from 20 to 80 ka beforepresent sea salt fluxes show only very subdued millennial changes despite pronounced temperature fluctuations, likely due to thelarge distance of the sea ice salt source to our drill sites.
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