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Sökning: WFRF:(Lee Andrew) > (2015-2019) > Samhällsvetenskap

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1.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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2.
  • Minns, Sean, et al. (författare)
  • Immersive 3D exposure-based treatment for spider fear : A randomized controlled trial
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Journal of Anxiety Disorders. - : Elsevier. - 0887-6185 .- 1873-7897. ; 58, s. 1-7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Stereoscopic 3D gives the viewer the same shape, size, perspective and depth they would experience viewing the real world and could mimic the perceptual threat cues present in real life. This is the first study to investigate whether an immersive stereoscopic 3D video exposure-based treatment would be effective in reducing fear of spiders. Participants with a fear of spiders (N = 77) watched two psychoeducational videos with facts about spiders and phobias. They were then randomized to a treatment condition that watched a single session of a stereoscopic 3D immersive video exposure-based treatment (six 5-min exposures) delivered through a virtual reality headset or a psychoeducation only control condition that watched a 30-min neutral video (2D documentary) presented on a computer monitor. Assessments of spider fear (Fear of Spiders Questionnaire [FSQ], Behavioral Approach Task [BAT], & subjective ratings of fear) were completed pre- and post-treatment. Consistent with prediction, the stereoscopic 3D video condition outperformed the control condition in reducing fear of spiders showing a large between-group effect size on the FSQ (Cohen's d = 0.85) and a medium between group effect size on the BAT (Cohen's d = 0.47). This provides initial support for stereoscopic 3D video in treating phobias.
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3.
  • Minns, Sean, et al. (författare)
  • Immersive 3D exposure-based treatment for spider fear : A randomized controlled trial
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Journal of Anxiety Disorders. - : Elsevier BV. - 0887-6185 .- 1873-7897. ; 61, s. 37-44
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Stereoscopic 3D gives the viewer the same shape, size, perspective and depth they would experience viewing the real world and could mimic the perceptual threat cues present in real life. This is the first study to investigate whether an immersive stereoscopic 3D video exposure-based treatment would be effective in reducing fear of spiders. Participants with a fear of spiders (N = 77) watched two psychoeducational videos with facts about spiders and phobias. They were then randomized to a treatment condition that watched a single session of a stereoscopic 3D immersive video exposure-based treatment (six 5-minute exposures) delivered through a virtual reality headset or a psychoeducation only control condition that watched a 30-minute neutral video (2D documentary) presented on a computer monitor. Assessments of spider fear (Fear of Spiders Questionnaire [FSQ], Behavioral Approach Task [BAT], & subjective ratings of fear) were completed pre- and post-treatment. Consistent with prediction, the stereoscopic 3D video condition outperformed the control condition in reducing fear of spiders showing a large between-group change effect size on the FSQ (Cohen's d = 0.85) and a medium between-group effect size on the BAT (Cohen's d = 0.47). This provides initial support for stereoscopic 3D video in treating phobias.
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4.
  • Treverton, Gregory F., et al. (författare)
  • Addressing Hybrid Threats
  • 2018
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Hybrid threats have become the 21st security challenge for Western countries. They reflect significant change in the nature of international security. Change tends to increase feelings of insecurity and, historically, frictions in society, all the more so because hybrid threats are complex and ambiguous. Some people look to the past for answers, while others have forgotten the past. There are those who argue more vigorously for adapting to change, and there are those who try to defend the status quo. In some cases facts turn into views, opinions and perspectives – or worse, vice versa. This means that the picture of the security environment is not simply black or white. It is complex, multi-layeredand multidimensional. Thus, analysis of what has changed, how it is changed and what does it mean for democratic states is at the core of understanding the nature of the current security environment in Europe.This report gives us a rich understanding of what we mean when we talk about hybrid threats drawing upon two case studies: Russia’s interventions in Crimea and Ukraine and in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. It also addresses whatkind of threats we are facing and what tools are being used against the democratic states.
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