| 1. |
- Bett, Bernard, et al.
(författare)
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Spatiotemporal analysis of historical records (2001-2012) on dengue fever in Vietnam and development of a statistical model for forecasting risk
- 2019
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 14:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is the most widespread infectious disease of humans transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. It is the leading cause of hospitalization and death in children in the Southeast Asia and western Pacific regions. We analyzed surveillance records from health centers in Vietnam collected between 2001-2012 to determine seasonal trends, develop risk maps and an incidence forecasting model.METHODS: The data were analyzed using a hierarchical spatial Bayesian model that approximates its posterior parameter distributions using the integrated Laplace approximation algorithm (INLA). Meteorological, altitude and land cover (LC) data were used as predictors. The data were grouped by province (n = 63) and month (n = 144) and divided into training (2001-2009) and validation (2010-2012) sets. Thirteen meteorological variables, 7 land cover data and altitude were considered as predictors. Only significant predictors were kept in the final multivariable model. Eleven dummy variables representing month were also fitted to account for seasonal effects. Spatial and temporal effects were accounted for using Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) and autoregressive (1) models. Their levels of significance were analyzed using deviance information criterion (DIC). The model was validated based on the Theil's coefficient which compared predicted and observed incidence estimated using the validation data. Dengue incidence predictions for 2010-2012 were also used to generate risk maps.RESULTS: The mean monthly dengue incidence during the period was 6.94 cases (SD 14.49) per 100,000 people. Analyses on the temporal trends of the disease showed regular seasonal epidemics that were interrupted every 3 years (specifically in July 2004, July 2007 and September 2010) by major fluctuations in incidence. Monthly mean minimum temperature, rainfall, area under urban settlement/build-up areas and altitude were significant in the final model. Minimum temperature and rainfall had non-linear effects and lagging them by two months provided a better fitting model compared to using unlagged variables. Forecasts for the validation period closely mirrored the observed data and accurately captured the troughs and peaks of dengue incidence trajectories. A favorable Theil's coefficient of inequality of 0.22 was generated.CONCLUSIONS: The study identified temperature, rainfall, altitude and area under urban settlement as being significant predictors of dengue incidence. The statistical model fitted the data well based on Theil's coefficient of inequality, and risk maps generated from its predictions identified most of the high-risk provinces throughout the country.
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| 2. |
- Ha, Tuyen V., et al.
(författare)
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Spatial distribution of Culex mosquito abundance and associated risk factors in Hanoi, Vietnam
- 2021
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Ingår i: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2727 .- 1935-2735. ; 15:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the major cause of viral encephalitis (VE) in most AsianPacific countries. In Vietnam, there is no nationwide surveillance system for JE due to lack of medical facilities and diagnoses. Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Culex vishnui, and Culex quin-quefasciatus have been identified as the major JE vectors in Vietnam. The main objective of this study was to forecast a risk map of Culex mosquitoes in Hanoi, which is one of the most densely populated cities in Vietnam. A total of 10,775 female adult Culex mosquitoes were collected from 513 trapping locations. We collected temperature and precipitation information during the study period and its preceding month. In addition, the other predictor variables (e.g., normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI], land use/land cover and human population density), were collected for our analysis. The final model selected for estimating the Culex mosquito abundance included centered rainfall, quadratic term rainfall, rice cover ratio, forest cover ratio, and human population density variables. The estimated spatial distribution of Culex mosquito abundance ranged from 0 to more than 200 mosquitoes per 900m2. Our model estimated that 87% of the Hanoi area had an abundance of mosquitoes from 0 to 50, whereas approximately 1.2% of the area showed more than 150 mosquitoes, which was mostly in the rural/peri-urban districts. Our findings provide better insight into understanding the spatial distribution of Culex mosquitoes and its associated environmental risk factors. Such information can assist local clinicians and public health policymakers to identify potential areas of risk for JE virus. Risk maps can be an efficient way of raising public awareness about the virus and further preventive measures need to be considered in order to prevent outbreaks and onwards transmission of JE virus.
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| 3. |
- Lee, Hu Suk, et al.
(författare)
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An investigation into aflatoxin M 1 in slaughtered fattening pigs and awareness of aflatoxins in Vietnam.
- 2017
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Ingår i: BMC Veterinary Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1746-6148. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) is a hydroxylated metabolite formed after aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is consumed by humans and animals; it can be detected in urine, milk and blood. It is well recognized that AFB1 is toxic to humans and other animals. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies aflatoxins as group 1 carcinogens and AFM1 as group 2B carcinogen. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the exposure of pigs to aflatoxins as well as to assess the public awareness of aflatoxins among people in five provinces in Vietnam.RESULTS: A total of 1920 urine samples were collected from slaughterhouses located in five provinces. Overall, the positive rate of AFM1 was 53.90% (95% confidence interval 51.64-56.15) using a cut-off of 0.15 μg/kg (range: limit of detection to 13.66 μg/kg, median: 0.2 μg/kg and mean: 0.63 μg/kg). A total of 252 people from the general population were interviewed from 5 provinces, and overall 67.86% reported being aware of aflatoxins. We also found that men and more highly educated had significantly increased awareness of aflatoxins compared to the females and primary/secondary school group. The respective odds ratios (ORs) were as follows: "male" group (OR: 2.64), "high school educated" group (OR: 3.40) and "college/university or more educated" group (OR: 10.20).CONCLUSIONS: We can conclude that pigs in Vietnam are exposed to aflatoxins to varying degrees, and there may be a risk that pork products could contain AFM1. Further investigation is needed into the possible health impacts as well as to aid in establishing regulations for animal feed to reduce the health impacts in humans and animals.
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| 4. |
- Pham-Thanh, Long, et al.
(författare)
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Dogs as Sentinels for Flavivirus Exposure in Urban, Peri-Urban and Rural Hanoi, Vietnam
- 2021
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Ingår i: Viruses. - : MDPI. - 1999-4915. ; 13:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diseases caused by flaviviruses, including dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis, are major health problems in Vietnam. This cross-sectional study explored the feasibility of domestic dogs as sentinels to better understand risks of mosquito-borne diseases in Hanoi city. A total of 475 dogs serum samples from 221 households in six districts of Hanoi were analyzed by a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) for antibodies to the pr-E protein of West Nile virus and other flaviviruses due to cross-reactivity. The overall flavivirus seroprevalence in the dog population was 70.7% (95% CI = 66.4-74.8%). At the animal level, significant associations between seropositive dogs and district location, age, breed and keeping practice were determined. At the household level, the major risk factors were rural and peri-urban locations, presence of pigs, coil burning and households without mosquito-borne disease experience (p < 0.05). Mosquito control by using larvicides or electric traps could lower seropositivity, but other measures did not contribute to significant risk mitigation of flavivirus exposure in dogs. These results will support better control of mosquito-borne diseases in Hanoi, and they indicate that dogs can be used as sentinels for flavivirus exposure.
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