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Sökning: WFRF:(Leighton Jonathan A.)

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1.
  • Hudson, Lawrence N, et al. (författare)
  • The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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2.
  • Hudson, Lawrence N., et al. (författare)
  • The PREDICTS database : a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 4:24, s. 4701-4735
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - ). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.
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3.
  • Grossmann, Igor, et al. (författare)
  • Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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4.
  • Haas, Brian J., et al. (författare)
  • Genome sequence and analysis of the Irish potato famine pathogen Phytophthora infestans
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 461:7262, s. 393-398
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Phytophthora infestans is the most destructive pathogen of potato and a model organism for the oomycetes, a distinct lineage of fungus-like eukaryotes that are related to organisms such as brown algae and diatoms. As the agent of the Irish potato famine in the mid-nineteenth century, P. infestans has had a tremendous effect on human history, resulting in famine and population displacement(1). To this day, it affects world agriculture by causing the most destructive disease of potato, the fourth largest food crop and a critical alternative to the major cereal crops for feeding the world's population(1). Current annual worldwide potato crop losses due to late blight are conservatively estimated at $6.7 billion(2). Management of this devastating pathogen is challenged by its remarkable speed of adaptation to control strategies such as genetically resistant cultivars(3,4). Here we report the sequence of the P. infestans genome, which at similar to 240 megabases (Mb) is by far the largest and most complex genome sequenced so far in the chromalveolates. Its expansion results from a proliferation of repetitive DNA accounting for similar to 74% of the genome. Comparison with two other Phytophthora genomes showed rapid turnover and extensive expansion of specific families of secreted disease effector proteins, including many genes that are induced during infection or are predicted to have activities that alter host physiology. These fast-evolving effector genes are localized to highly dynamic and expanded regions of the P. infestans genome. This probably plays a crucial part in the rapid adaptability of the pathogen to host plants and underpins its evolutionary potential.
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5.
  • Leighton, Jonathan A., et al. (författare)
  • Capsule Endoscopy Is Superior to Small-bowel Follow-through and Equivalent to Ileocolonoscopy in Suspected Crohn's Disease
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1542-7714 .- 1542-3565. ; 12:4, s. 609-615
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND & AIMS: Evaluation of the small intestine for inflammation has traditionally relied on small-bowel follow-through (SBFT), but multiple studies have demonstrated its low diagnostic accuracy. Capsule endoscopy (CE) transmits high-quality images of the small intestinal mucosa; it can be used to visualize the entire length of the small bowel and much of the mucosa. We compared the diagnostic yields of CE vs SBFT in a prospective study of patients with suspected small-bowel Crohn's disease. METHODS: Eighty patients with signs and/or symptoms of small-bowel Crohn's disease (age, 10-65 years) underwent CE, followed by SBFT and ileocolonoscopy. Readers were blinded to other test results. The primary outcome was the diagnostic yield for inflammatory lesions found with CE before ileocolonoscopy compared with SBFT and ileocolonoscopy. A secondary outcome was the incremental diagnostic yield of CE compared with ileocolonoscopy and CE compared with SBFT. RESULTS: The combination of CE and ileocolonoscopy detected 107 of 110 inflammatory lesions (97.3%), whereas the combination of SBFT and ileocolonoscopy detected only 63 lesions (57.3%) (P < .001). The diagnostic yield of CE compared with ileocolonoscopy was not different (P = .09). The diagnostic yield was higher for CE than for SBFT (P < .001). Of the 80 patients with suspected Crohn's disease, 25 (31.3%) had the diagnosis confirmed. Eleven were diagnosed by CE findings alone and 5 by ileocolonoscopy findings alone. In the remaining 9 patients, diagnostic findings were identified by at least 2 of the 3 modalities. No diagnoses were made on the basis of SBFT findings alone. CONCLUSIONS: CE was better than SBFT and equivalent to ileocolonoscopy in detecting small-bowel inflammation. Although ileocolonoscopy remains the initial diagnostic test of choice, CE is safe and can establish the diagnosis of Crohn's disease in patients when ileocolonoscopy results are negative or the terminal ileum cannot be evaluated. ClinicalTrials.gov Number: NCT00487396.
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