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| 2. |
- Algaba, Juan-Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 911:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M o˙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87's spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded.
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| 3. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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Gamma-ray blazar spectra with HESS II mono analysis : The case of PKS2155-304 and PG1553+113
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 600
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. The addition of a 28 m Cherenkov telescope (CT5) to the H.E.S.S. array extended the experiment's sensitivity to lower energies. The lowest energy threshold is obtained using monoscopic analysis of data taken with CT5, providing access to gamma-ray energies below 100 GeV for small zenith angle observations. Such an extension of the instrument's energy range is particularly beneficial for studies of active galactic nuclei with soft spectra, as expected for those at a redshift >= 0.5. The high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects PKS 2155-304 (z = 0.116) and PG 1553 + 113 (0.43 < z < 0.58) are among the brightest objects in the gamma-ray sky, both showing clear signatures of gamma-ray absorption at E > 100 GeV interpreted as being due to interactions with the extragalactic background light (EBL). Aims. The aims of this work are twofold: to demonstrate the monoscopic analysis of CT5 data with a low energy threshold, and to obtain accurate measurements of the spectral energy distributions (SED) of PKS 2155-304 and PG 1553 + 113 near their SED peaks at energies approximate to 100 GeV. Methods. Multiple observational campaigns of PKS 2155 304 and PG 1553 + 113 were conducted during 2013 and 2014 using the full H.E.S.S. II instrument (CT1-5). A monoscopic analysis of the data taken with the new CT5 telescope was developed along with an investigation into the systematic uncertainties on the spectral parameters which are derived from this analysis. Results. Using the data from CT5, the energy spectra of PKS 2155 304 and PG 1553 + 113 were reconstructed down to conservative threshold energies of 80 GeV for PKS 2155 304, which transits near zenith, and 110 GeV for the more northern PG 1553 + 113. The measured spectra, well fitted in both cases by a log-parabola spectral model ( with a 5.0 similar to statistical preference for non-zero curvature for PKS 2155 304 and 4.5 sigma for PG 1553+113), were found consistent with spectra derived from contemporaneous Fermi-LAT data, indicating a sharp break in the observed spectra of both sources at E approximate to 100 GeV. When corrected for EBL absorption, the intrinsic H.E.S.S. II mono and Fermi-LAT spectrum of PKS 2155 304 was found to show significant curvature. For PG 1553+113, however, no significant detection of curvature in the intrinsic spectrum could be found within statistical and systematic uncertainties.
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| 4. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 5. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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| 6. |
- Li, Jie, et al.
(författare)
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Sphenostylisins A-K : bioactive modified isoflavonoid constituents of the root bark of Sphenostylis marginata ssp. erecta
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Organic Chemistry. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0022-3263 .- 1520-6904. ; 78:20, s. 10166-10177
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sphenostylisins A-C (1-3), three complex dimeric compounds representing two novel carbon skeletons, along with an additional eight new compounds, sphenostylisins D-K (4-11), were isolated from the active chloroform-soluble extract of the root bark of Sphenostylis marginata ssp. erecta using a bioactivity-guided isolation approach. The structures were elucidated by means of detailed spectroscopic analysis, including NMR and HRESIMS analysis, and tandem MS fragmentation was utilized to further support the structures of 1-3. The absolute configuration of sphenostylisin C (3) was established by electronic circular dichroism analysis. Plausible biogenetic relationships between the modified isoflavonoids 1-11 are proposed, and a cyclization reaction of 9 was conducted to support one of the biogenetic proposals made. All of these pure isolates were evaluated against a panel of in vitro bioassays, and among the results obtained, sphenostylisin A (1) was found to be a very potent NF-κB inhibitor (IC50 = 6 nM).
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| 7. |
- Petropoulos, Fotios, et al.
(författare)
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Operational Research : methods and applications
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of the Operational Research Society. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0160-5682 .- 1476-9360. ; 75:3, s. 423-617
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Throughout its history, Operational Research has evolved to include methods, models and algorithms that have been applied to a wide range of contexts. This encyclopedic article consists of two main sections: methods and applications. The first summarises the up-to-date knowledge and provides an overview of the state-of-the-art methods and key developments in the various subdomains of the field. The second offers a wide-ranging list of areas where Operational Research has been applied. The article is meant to be read in a nonlinear fashion and used as a point of reference by a diverse pool of readers: academics, researchers, students, and practitioners. The entries within the methods and applications sections are presented in alphabetical order. The authors dedicate this paper to the 2023 Turkey/Syria earthquake victims. We sincerely hope that advances in OR will play a role towards minimising the pain and suffering caused by this and future catastrophes.
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| 8. |
- Bernhard, G. H., et al.
(författare)
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Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change : UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019
- 2020
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Ingår i: Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences. - : Royal Society of Chemistry. - 1474-905X .- 1474-9092. ; 19:5, s. 542-584
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595–828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.
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| 9. |
- Bueno Pérez, Lynette, et al.
(författare)
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Caeruleanone A, a rotenoid with a new arrangement of the D-ring from the fruits of Millettia caerulea.
- 2014
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Ingår i: Organic Letters. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1523-7060 .- 1523-7052. ; 16:5, s. 1462-1465
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Caeruleanone A (1), a novel rotenoid with an unprecedented arrangement of the D-ring, was isolated with another two new analogues, caeruleanones B (2) and C (3), together with 11 known rotenoids from the fruits of Millettia caerulea. The structures of the new compounds were determined by spectroscopic data analysis, with that of 1 being confirmed by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. Compounds 2 and 3 displayed potent mitochondrial transmembrane potential inhibitory and quinone reductase induction activities.
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| 10. |
- Aquino, Caroline D., et al.
(författare)
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Influence of test methodology on the characterization of the parallel-to-grain timber embedment strength and foundation modulus of dowels
- 2024
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Ingår i: Wood Material Science & Engineering. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 1748-0272 .- 1748-0280.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A reliable determination of the embedment strength and foundation modulus of timber elements is critical for the design and safety assessment of joints in timber structures. However, the existence of various test configurations for characterising the embedding properties of large diameter steel fasteners in timber elements poses challenges in directly comparing and utilising available test data. This paper aims to provide an insight into the influence of embedment property test methods, comparing experimental results from different test setups within the guidelines of the EN 383 and ASTM D 5764-97a standards for European softwood species, Scots pine wood (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). In addition to the test guidelines, the thickness of the specimen and the application of the load was evaluated within the protocols. A comprehensive statistical analysis was performed to identify statistically significant differences between the groups evaluated. The results of the analysis revealed disagreement between the standards in the evaluation of the strength of the embedding, highlighting the potential bias inserted by the experimental setup and protocol. Furthermore, it was proven that the thickness of the specimens influences both the embedding strength and the foundation modulus of the wood species tested. Finally, no distinctions were observed between tensile and compressive loading within the guidelines of the EN 383 standard.
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