| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Fang, Evandro F., et al.
(författare)
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A research agenda for ageing in China in the 21st century (2nd edition): Focusing on basic and translational research, long-term care, policy and social networks.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ageing Research Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1568-1637. ; 64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the key issues facing public healthcare is the global trend of an increasingly ageing society which continues to present policy makers and caregivers with formidable healthcare and socio-economic challenges. Ageing is the primary contributor to a broad spectrum of chronic disorders all associated with a lower quality of life in the elderly. In 2019, the Chinese population constituted 18 % of the world population, with 164.5 million Chinese citizens aged 65 and above (65+), and 26 million aged 80 or above (80+). China has become an ageing society, and as it continues to age it will continue to exacerbate the burden borne by current family and public healthcare systems. Major healthcare challenges involved with caring for the elderly in China include the management of chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs), physical frailty, neurodegenerative diseases, cardiovascular diseases, with emerging challenges such as providing sufficient dental care, combating the rising prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases among nursing home communities, providing support for increased incidences of immune diseases, and the growing necessity to provide palliative care for the elderly. At the governmental level, it is necessary to make long-term strategic plans to respond to the pressures of an ageing society, especially to establish a nationwide, affordable, annual health check system to facilitate early diagnosis and provide access to affordable treatments. China has begun work on several activities to address these issues including the recent completion of the of the Ten-year Health-Care Reform project, the implementation of the Healthy China 2030 Action Plan, and the opening of the National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders. There are also societal challenges, namely the shift from an extended family system in which the younger provide home care for their elderly family members, to the current trend in which young people are increasingly migrating towards major cities for work, increasing reliance on nursing homes to compensate, especially following the outcomes of the ‘one child policy’ and the ‘empty-nest elderly’ phenomenon. At the individual level, it is important to provide avenues for people to seek and improve their own knowledge of health and disease, to encourage them to seek medical check-ups to prevent/manage illness, and to find ways to promote modifiable health-related behaviors (social activity, exercise, healthy diets, reasonable diet supplements) to enable healthier, happier, longer, and more productive lives in the elderly. Finally, at the technological or treatment level, there is a focus on modern technologies to counteract the negative effects of ageing. Researchers are striving to produce drugs that can mimic the effects of ‘exercising more, eating less’, while other anti-ageing molecules from molecular gerontologists could help to improve ‘healthspan’ in the elderly. Machine learning, ‘Big Data’, and other novel technologies can also be used to monitor disease patterns at the population level and may be used to inform policy design in the future. Collectively, synergies across disciplines on policies, geriatric care, drug development, personal awareness, the use of big data, machine learning and personalized medicine will transform China into a country that enables the most for its elderly, maximizing and celebrating their longevity in the coming decades. This is the 2nd edition of the review paper (Fang EF et al., Ageing Re. Rev. 2015).
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| 3. |
- Reitsma, Marissa B., et al.
(författare)
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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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| 4. |
- Stephan, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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Act or Wait-and-See? Adversity, Agility, and Entrepreneur Wellbeing across Countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic
- 2023
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Ingår i: Entrepreneurship. - : Sage Publications. - 1042-2587 .- 1540-6520. ; 47:3, s. 682-723
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How can entrepreneurs protect their wellbeing during a crisis? Does engaging agility (namely, opportunity agility and planning agility) in response to adversity help entrepreneurs safeguard their wellbeing? Activated by adversity, agility may function as a specific resilience mechanism enabling positive adaption to crisis. We studied 3162 entrepreneurs from 20 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and found that more severe national lockdowns enhanced firm-level adversity for entrepreneurs and diminished their wellbeing. Moreover, entrepreneurs who combined opportunity agility with planning agility experienced higher wellbeing but planning agility alone lowered wellbeing. Entrepreneur agility offers a new agentic perspective to research on entrepreneur wellbeing.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Stephan, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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Agility or Wait-and-See? : How the Covid-19 Crisis Impacts Entrepreneurs’ Well-being across Countries
- 2021
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Ingår i: Academy of management annual meeting proceedings. - Briarcliff Manor, NY, USA : Academy of Management.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We study how entrepreneurs and their well-being are impacted by crises and which entrepreneurs are able to safeguard their well-being. We examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in a multilevel study of 3,149 entrepreneurs from 20 countries and draw attention to entrepreneur agility (flexible and adaptive action) both as a crisis response strategy and as a possible way for entrepreneurs to protect their well-being. We find that agile entrepreneurs, especially those that recognized new opportunities for their business in the pandemic, had better well-being during the pandemic (life satisfaction and vitality). Our findings offer further insights into agility as a response to adversity and whether it is enabled by cultural contexts supporting agility and entrepreneurs? human capital.
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| 7. |
- Xiao, Jun, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the Effectiveness of the Augmented Reality Courseware for Starry Sky Exploration
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Distance Education Technologies. - 1539-3100 .- 1539-3119. ; 18:1, s. 19-35
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Augmented reality tools and applications have been shown to have powerfully impelled the development of the field of education. In this article, the authors designed and developed an augmented reality technology-based courseware Starry Sky Exploration-Eight Planets in the Solar System and explored how AR can bring an immersive learning experience to students and improve students' learning effectiveness. This article presents and evaluates AR courseware applicable for the geography curriculum in secondary schools in China. In this study, 36 students from Shanghai secondary vocational school were invited to participate in the experiment, the authors use reliability analysis, regression analysis and brainwave analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of the AR course. The authors found that students have higher learning satisfaction and behavioral willingness in AR-based experiential learning activities. It can be seen that AR helps to stimulate students' interest in learning.
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| 8. |
- Younan, Diana, et al.
(författare)
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Ambient Temperature and Externalizing Behaviors of Adolescents in Southern California : A Longitudinal Analysis
- 2016
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Introduction: The climate-violence relationship has been debated for over 20 years, primarily because the supportive evidence was either ecological in nature or based on cross-sectional data. We conducted an individual-level, longitudinal analysis to investigate the association between temperature and externalizing behaviors in an urban-dwelling population.Methods: Participants (N=1287) of the Risk Factors for Antisocial Behavior Study, a multi-ethnic cohort of twins/triplets living in Southern California, were examined in 2000-2012 (aged 9 to 18 years) with repeated assessments of their aggressive and delinquent behaviors by the parent-reported Child Behavior Checklist. Ambient temperature was obtained from the local Meteorological Information System, with recordings from the closest site assigned to each geocoded residence. A monthly time-series from 1990 to 2012 was constructed and aggregated in 1-, 3-, and 6-month and 1-, 2-, and 3-year averages prior to each behavioral assessment. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to estimate the effects of temperature, adjusting for within-family/within-individual correlations and other potential confounders.Results: Statistically significant associations (all p<0.05) were found between aggression and average temperature aggregated over 6 months or longer. Increasing aggressive behaviors were associated with rising 6-month average temperatures. However, longer-term (1- to 3-year average) temperatures showed a non-linear U-shaped association, with less aggressive behaviors at moderate temperatures (15-20°C), but increasing aggression at higher or lower temperatures. No significant effects were found on delinquency.Conclusions: Our study provides the first individual-level epidemiologic evidence supporting the adverse temperature effects on aggressive human behaviors. Similar approaches to studying violent crimes may further inform the scientific debates on climate changes and violence.
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| 9. |
- Younan, Diana, et al.
(författare)
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Environmental Determinants of Aggression in Adolescents : Role of Urban Neighborhood Greenspace
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. - Amsterdam, Netherlands : Elsevier. - 0890-8567 .- 1527-5418. ; 55:7, s. 591-601
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: Neighborhood greenspace improves mental health of urban-dwelling populations, but its putative neurobehavioral benefits in adolescents remain unclear. We conducted a prospective study on urban-dwelling adolescents to examine the association between greenspace in residential neighborhood and aggressive behaviors.Method: Participants (n = 1,287) of the Risk Factors for Antisocial Behavior Study, a multi-ethnic cohort of twins and triplets born in 1990 to 1995 and living in Southern California, were examined in 2000 to 2012 (aged 9-18 years) with repeated assessments of their aggressive behaviors by the parent-reported Child Behavior Checklist. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from satellite imagery was used as a proxy for residential neighborhood greenspace aggregated over various spatiotemporal scales before each assessment. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to estimate the effects of greenspace on aggressive behaviors, adjusting for within-family/within-individual correlations and other potential confounders.Results: Both short-term (1- to 6-month) and long-term (1- to 3-year) exposures to greenspace within 1,000 meters surrounding residences were associated with reduced aggressive behaviors. The benefit of increasing vegetation over the range (∼0.12 in NDVI) commonly seen in urban environments was equivalent to approximately 2 to 2.5 years of behavioral maturation. Sociodemographic factors (e.g., age, gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status) and neighborhood quality did not confound or modify these associations, and the benefits remained after accounting for temperature.Conclusion: Our novel findings support the benefits of neighborhood greenspace in reducing aggressive behaviors of urban-dwelling adolescents. Community-based interventions are needed to determine the efficacy of greenspace as a preemptive strategy to reduce aggressive behaviors in urban environments.
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| 10. |
- Zhang, Rongwei, et al.
(författare)
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Chinese Students' Satisfaction with Life Relative to Psychological Capital and Mediated by Purpose in Life
- 2019
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Ingår i: Current Psychology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1046-1310 .- 1936-4733. ; 38:1, s. 260-271
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Altogether 700 college students aged 18 to 24years (M=20.81, SD=1.29) originating from six universities in China participated in this study. The current aim was to find out whether a student's sense of purpose in life mediated the relationship between his/her psychological capital (PsyCap) comprising hope, generalized self-efficacy, resilience, optimism (HERO; Luthans and Youssef-Morgan. Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior, 4, 339-366, 2017) and satisfaction with life. Furthermore, it was asked which factor contributes more to students' satisfaction with life, PsyCap or purpose in life? Thus, apprentices completed the Adult Dispositional Hope Scale (Snyder et al. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60(4), 570-585, 1991), General Self-Efficacy Scale (Schwarzer and Jerusalem. Causal and Control Beliefs, 1, 35-37, 1995), Resilience Scale (Wagnild and Young. Journal of Nursing Measurement, 1(2), 165-17847, 1993), Life Orientation Test-Revised (Scheier et al. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(6), 1063-1078, 1994) along with the completion of the Purpose in Life Test (Crumbaugh and Maholick. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 20(2), 200-207, 1964) and Satisfaction with life scale (Diener et al. Journal of Personality Assessment, 49(1), 71-75, 1985). The results disclosed grade differences in PsyCap elements. Moreover, positive and significant correlations between any of two variables were found, thus allowing for further analysis. Structural equation modeling revealed that students' satisfaction with life was directly predicted by PsyCap per se as well as indirectly projected by means of the construct purpose in life. Based on the present assessment, PsyCap contributed more to students' satisfaction with life than their experienced purpose in life.
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