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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Zhu, Shanshan, et al.
(författare)
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Genomic insights on the contribution of balancing selection and local adaptation to the long-term survival of a widespread living fossil tree,Cercidiphyllum japonicum
- 2020
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : WILEY. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 228:5, s. 1674-1689
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 'Living fossils' are testimonies of long-term sustained ecological success, but how demographic history and natural selection contributed to their survival, resilience, and persistence in the face of Quaternary climate fluctuations remains unclear. To better understand the interplay between demographic history and selection in shaping genomic diversity and evolution of such organisms, we assembled the whole genome ofCercidiphyllum japonicum, a widespread East Asian Tertiary relict tree, and resequenced 99 individuals ofC. japonicumand its sister species,Cercidiphyllum magnificum(Central Japan). We dated this speciation event to the mid-Miocene, and the intraspecific lineage divergence ofC. japonicum(China vs Japan) to the Early Pliocene. Throughout climatic upheavals of the late Tertiary/Quaternary, population bottlenecks greatly reduced the genetic diversity ofC. japonicum. However, this polymorphism loss was likely counteracted by, first, long-term balancing selection at multiple chromosomal and heterozygous gene regions, potentially reflecting overdominance, and, second, selective sweeps at stress response and growth-related genes likely involved in local adaptation. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how living fossils have survived climatic upheaval and maintained an extensive geographic range; that is, both types of selection could be major factors contributing to the species' survival, resilience, and persistence.
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| 4. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 5. |
- Dang, Junhua, et al.
(författare)
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The Beauty of the Zero : Replications and Extensions of the Hidden-Zero Effect in Delay Discounting Tasks
- 2021
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Ingår i: Social Psychology and Personality Science. - : SAGE Publications. - 1948-5506 .- 1948-5514. ; 12:4, s. 544-549
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Unlike the presentation format in a typical delay discounting task (e.g., Would you prefer [A] US$4.3 today OR [B] US$7.5 in 22 days?), Magen et al. inserted a zero to each alternative (e.g., Would you prefer [A] US$4.3 today and US$0 in 22 days OR [B] US$0 today and US$7.5 in 22 days?) and found this manipulation effectively reduced delay discounting (d= .84), which was referred to as the hidden-zero effect. Study 1 was a direct replication of this effect. In Study 2, we tested whether the explicit-zero format could buffer against the detrimental effect of exposure to sexy cues on delay discounting. In Study 3, we explored the mechanism underlying the hidden-zero effect. Taken together, the hidden-zero effect was consistently found across all studies (N= 2,440) and our internal meta-analysis yielded a medium to large effect size (d= .52).
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| 6. |
- Liu, Yu, et al.
(författare)
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Diagnostic Values of METTL1-Related Genes and Immune Characteristics in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Inflammation Research. - : Dove Medical Press. - 1178-7031. ; 16, s. 5367-5383
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: Methyltransferase like 1 (METTL1) regulates epitranscriptomes via the m7G modification in mammalian mRNA and microRNA. Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is caused by abnormal immune reactivity and has diverse clinical manifestations. RNA methylation as a mechanism to regulate gene expression is widely implicated in immune regulation. However, the role of m7G in immune response of SLE has not been extensively studied.Patients and Methods: Expression of METTL1 was identified in the public dataset GSE122459 and validated in an independent cohort of SLE patients. We investigated the association between METTL1-expression and clinical manifestations of SLE. Subsequently, differentially expressed genes (DEG) that were correlated with METTL1-expression in GSE122459 were used for functional enrichment analysis. The correlation between infiltrating immune cells and METTL1, as well as candidate biomarkers identified to be correlated with either METTL1 or immune cell infiltration were assessed by single-sample GSEA. Potential mechanisms were explored with Gene ontology and KEGG pathway enrichment. Diagnostic performances of candidate biomarkers in SLE were analyzed.Results: The mRNA and protein expression of METTL1 in SLE patients were significantly decreased in both datasets. METTL1-coexpressed DEGs were enriched in several key immune-related pathways. Activated CD8 T cells, activated CD4 T cells, memory B cells and type 2 helper T cells were different between patients with high and low METTL1 expression. Further, activated CD8 T-cells, activated CD4 T-cells, memory B-cells were correlated with METTL1. The genes of LAMP3, CD83, PDCD1LG2, IGKVD3D-20, IGKV5-2, IGKV2D-30, IGLV3-19 and IGLV4-60 were identified as candidate targets that were correlated with immune cell proportion. Moreover, LAMP3, CD83, and PDCD1LG2 expression were of diagnostic value in SLE as indicated by ROC analysis.Conclusion: Our findings suggested that METTL1 and its candidate targets LAMP3, CD83, PDCD1LG2 may be used for diagnosing SLE and could be explored for developing targeted molecular therapy for SLE.
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