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- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 2. |
- Ljung, Lotta, et al.
(författare)
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Performance of the Expanded Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Score for Rheumatoid Arthritis in a geographically distant National Register-based cohort : an external validation
- 2018
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Ingår i: RMD Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2056-5933. ; 4:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) should facilitate evidence-based management. Prior work has derived an internally validated a CV risk score, the Expanded Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Score for Rheumatoid Arthritis (ERS-RA), using US data. The aim of this study was to perform an external validation among unselected patients with RA from Europe. Methods Three large, partially overlapping, cohorts of patients with RA from the Swedish Rheumatology Quality register were identified for external validation, two with information on smoking and two with close to 10 years of median follow-up. The 10-year rate of first CV events was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The performance of ERS-RA was assessed using C-index and comparisons of observed versus predicted risks. Results The C-index for ERS-RA varied across the three RA cohorts, from 0.75 to 0.78. Predicted risks corresponded well to observed risks among individuals with <= 10 % observed 10-year CV risk, but underestimated risk in individuals with a higher observed risk. In the absence of data on smoking, ERS-RA underestimated the CV risk by 3.3%, whereas in the cohorts including data on smoking, the calibration was within 1% (0.06% and 0.7%). In the clinically relevant risk intervals (<5%, 5.0%-<7.5%, 7.5%-<10%), ERS-RA performed well. Conclusions In an unselected Swedish population with RA, ERS-RA performed well, although the 10-year CV risk was underestimated in high-risk groups and in the absence of data on smoking. ERS-RA could be considered as a risk stratification tool for targeted preventive interventions in clinical rheumatology practice.
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