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- Alexander, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 23:2, s. 767-781
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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| 2. |
- Guardia Velarde, Lorena De Jesus, et al.
(författare)
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Differential breeding targets in wheat influence non-target traits related to grain quality, but not crop nitrogen requirement
- 2023
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Agronomy. - 2673-3218. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wheat is considered an established crop with a long breeding history. Its varieties are being developed with differential breeding targets, e.g. high grain yield or high grain protein content. The different breeding targets strongly influence performance in the targeted traits, but may also influence non-target traits related to grain quality, biofortification potential, and nutrient accumulation. This influence of non-targeted traits may, in turn, affect the environmental performance and ecological sustainability of the crop. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationships between breeding target traits such as grain yield and grain quality, and non-target traits for three groups of spring wheat varieties differing in breeding targets, i.e. high yield (I), organic high protein (II), and intermediate (III) wheat types. Data from a field trial with nine spring wheat varieties grown under two soil compaction treatments over two years with contrasting weather were used. We found that wheat type affected most target and non-target traits with partly large effect sizes (0.874≤η 2p≤0.173) , but not nitrogen (N) uptake efficiency ( η 2p =0.006), which reflects the potential N resource requirement of the crop. Associations shown between target and non-target traits will be advantageous for wheat breeding programs. Wheat type and environment had similarly sized effects on grain yield and quality traits. Grain concentrations of various macro- and micro-nutrients were frequently, but not always, correlated, indicating that the biofortification potential varied between wheat types and was affected by environmental conditions. The grain and starch yields per accumulated plant N were higher in the wheat varieties bred for high grain yields than those bred for high grain protein content; whilst the protein yield per accumulated whole-plant N was similar across all wheat types despite much higher grain N concentrations in the high-protein varieties. Additionally, most of the evaluated traits tended to preserve their static stability across environments. The results link grain yield and grain quality traits to crop nutrient accumulation aspects relevant for the environmental performance and ecological sustainability of the crop. Future breeding strategies should consider the non-target effects in traits that influence the environmental performance of the crop.
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