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- Harvey, N. C., et al.
(författare)
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FRAX predicts incident falls in elderly men : findings from MrOs Sweden
- 2016
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 27:1, s. 267-274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A Summary Falls and fractures share several common risk factors. Although past falls is not included as an input variable in the FRAX calculator, we demonstrate that FRAX probability predicts risk of incident falls in the MrOs Sweden cohort. Introduction Although not included in the FRAXA (R) algorithm, it is possible that increased falls risk is partly dependent on other risk factors that are incorporated into FRAX. The aim of the present study was to determine whether fracture probability generated by FRAX might also predict risk of incident falls and the extent that a falls history would add value to FRAX. Methods We studied the relationship between FRAX probabilities and risk of falls in 1836 elderly men recruited to the MrOS study, a population-based prospective cohort of men from Sweden. Baseline data included falls history, clinical risk factors, bone mineral density (BMD) at femoral neck, and calculated FRAX probabilities. Incident falls were captured during an average of 1.8 years of follow-up. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between FRAX, other risk variables, and the time-to-event hazard function of falls. All associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline. Results At enrolment, 15.5 % of the men had fallen during the preceding 12 months (past falls) and 39 % experienced one or more falls during follow-up (incident falls). The risk of incident falls increased with increasing FRAX probabilities at baseline (hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.16; 95 % confidence interval (95%CI), 1.06 to 1.26). The association between incident falls and FRAX probability remained after adjustment for past falls (HR per SD, 1.12; 95%CI, 1.03 to 1.22). High compared with low baseline FRAX score (>15 vs <15 % probability of major osteoporotic fracture) was strongly predictive of increased falls risk (HR, 1.64; 95%CI, 1.36 to 1.97) and remained stable with time. Whereas past falls were a significant predictor of incident falls (HR, 2.75; 95%CI, 2.32 to 3.25), even after adjustment for FRAX, the hazard ratio decreased markedly with increasing follow-up time. Conclusions Although falls are not included as an input variable, FRAX captures a component of risk for future falls and outperforms falls history with an extended follow-up time.
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- Jonsson, E., et al.
(författare)
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A health economic simulation model for the clinical management of osteoporosis
- 2018
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 29:3, s. 545-555
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The objective was to estimate the burden of osteoporosis in Sweden based on current clinical practice and the cost-effectiveness of improvements in the management of osteoporosis over the clinical management compared to current clinical practice. Results showed that better compliance to treatment guidelines is associated with better projected outcomes and cost-savings.IntroductionThe purpose of this study is to estimate the burden of osteoporosis in Sweden based on current clinical practice and the cost-effectiveness of improvements in the management of osteoporosis over the clinical management compared to current clinical practice.MethodsThe analysis was carried out using a model that simulates the individual patients considered for pharmacological treatment during 1 year and their projected osteoporosis treatment pathway, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs over their remaining lifetime. All patients regardless of treatment or no treatment were simulated. Information on current management of osteoporosis in terms of patient characteristics and treatment patterns were derived from a Swedish osteoporosis research database based on national registers and patient records. Current (standard) clinical management was compared with alternative scenarios mirroring Swedish treatment guidelines.ResultsThe national burden in terms of lost QALYs was estimated at 14,993 QALYs and the total economic cost at €776M. Scenario analyses showed that 382–3864 QALYs could be gained at a cost/QALY ranging from cost-saving to €31368, depending on the scenario. The margin of investment, i.e. the maximum amount that could be invested in the healthcare system to achieve these improvements up to the limit of the willingness to pay/QALY, was estimated at €199M on a population level (€3,634/patient).ConclusionsThe analysis showed that better compliance to treatment guidelines is associated with better projected outcomes and cost-savings. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, there is also considerable room for investment to achieve these improvements in the management of osteoporosis.
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