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1.
  • Aaron-Morrison, A. P., et al. (författare)
  • State of the climate in 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 98:8, s. Si-S280
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 ± 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 ± 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Niña evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Niño conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44°C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0°C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8°C, representing a 3.5°C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute ∼7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01°C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st centuryto-date of +0.162°C decade-1 is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100°C decade-1. Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Niño at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Niña contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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2.
  • Acciari, V. A., et al. (författare)
  • Radio Imaging of the Very-High-Energy gamma-Ray Emission Region in the Central Engine of a Radio Galaxy
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 325:5939, s. 444-448
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>The accretion of matter onto a massive black hole is believed to feed the relativistic plasma jets found in many active galactic nuclei (AGN). Although some AGN accelerate particles to energies exceeding 10(12) electron volts and are bright sources of very-high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission, it is not yet known where the VHE emission originates. Here we report on radio and VHE observations of the radio galaxy Messier 87, revealing a period of extremely strong VHE gamma-ray flares accompanied by a strong increase of the radio flux from its nucleus. These results imply that charged particles are accelerated to very high energies in the immediate vicinity of the black hole.</p>
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3.
  • Acero, F., et al. (författare)
  • Prospects for Cherenkov Telescope Array Observations of the Young Supernova Remnant RX J1713.7-3946
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 840:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>We perform simulations for future Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) observations of RX J1713.7-3946, a young supernova remnant (SNR) and one of the brightest sources ever discovered in very high energy (VHE) gamma rays. Special attention is paid to exploring possible spatial (anti) correlations of gamma rays with emission at other wavelengths, in particular X-rays and CO/H I emission. We present a series of simulated images of RX J1713.7-3946 for CTA based on a set of observationally motivated models for the gamma-ray emission. In these models, VHE gamma rays produced by high-energy electrons are assumed to trace the nonthermal X-ray emission observed by XMM-Newton, whereas those originating from relativistic protons delineate the local gas distributions. The local atomic and molecular gas distributions are deduced by the NANTEN team from CO and H I observations. Our primary goal is to show how one can distinguish the emission mechanism(s) of the gamma rays (i.e., hadronic versus leptonic, or a mixture of the two) through information provided by their spatial distribution, spectra, and time variation. This work is the first attempt to quantitatively evaluate the capabilities of CTA to achieve various proposed scientific goals by observing this important cosmic particle accelerator.</p>
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4.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.METHODS: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.FINDINGS: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.INTERPRETATION: GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
5.
  • Fitzmauric, C., et al. (författare)
  • Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017 : A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: JAMA Oncology. - American Medical Association. - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 5:12, s. 1749-1768
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p><strong>Importance:</strong> Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.</p><p><strong>Objective:</strong> To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.</p><p><strong>Evidence Review:</strong> We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.</p><p><strong>Findings:</strong> In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).</p><p><strong>Conclusions and Relevance:</strong> The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. </p>
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6.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations.
7.
  • Abdo, A. A., et al. (författare)
  • Multi-wavelength observations of the flaring gamma-ray blazar 3C 66A in 2008 October
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 726:1, s. 43
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>The BL Lacertae object 3C 66A was detected in a flaring state by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) and VERITAS in 2008 October. In addition to these gamma-ray observations, F-GAMMA, GASP-WEBT, PAIRITEL, MDM, ATOM, Swift, and Chandra provided radio to X-ray coverage. The available light curves show variability and, in particular, correlated flares are observed in the optical and Fermi-LAT gamma-ray band. The resulting spectral energy distribution can be well fitted using standard leptonic models with and without an external radiation field for inverse Compton scattering. It is found, however, that only the model with an external radiation field can accommodate the intra-night variability observed at optical wavelengths.</p>
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8.
  • Ahnen, M. L., et al. (författare)
  • Constraints on particle acceleration in SS433/W50 from MAGIC and HESS observations
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>Context. The large jet kinetic power and non-thermal processes occurring in the microquasar SS 433 make this source a good candidate for a very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emitter. Gamma-ray fluxes above the sensitivity limits of current Cherenkov telescopes have been predicted for both the central X-ray binary system and the interaction regions of SS 433 jets with the surrounding W50 nebula. Non-thermal emission at lower energies has been previously reported, indicating that efficient particle acceleration is taking place in the system. Aims. We explore the capability of SS 433 to emit VHE gamma rays during periods in which the expected flux attenuation due to periodic eclipses (P-orb similar to 13.1 days) and precession of the circumstellar disk (P-pre similar to 162 days) periodically covering the central binary system is expected to be at its minimum. The eastern and western SS 433/W50 interaction regions are also examined using the whole data set available. We aim to constrain some theoretical models previously developed for this system with our observations. Methods. We made use of dedicated observations from the Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cherenkov telescopes (MAGIC) and High Energy Spectroscopic System (H.E.S.S.) of SS 433 taken from 2006 to 2011. These observation were combined for the first time and accounted for a total effective observation time of 16.5 h, which were scheduled considering the expected phases of minimum absorption of the putative VHE emission. Gamma-ray attenuation does not affect the jet/medium interaction regions. In this case, the analysis of a larger data set amounting to similar to 40-80 h, depending on the region, was employed. Results. No evidence of VHE gamma-ray emission either from the central binary system or from the eastern/western interaction regions was found. Upper limits were computed for the combined data set. Differential fluxes from the central system are found to be less than or similar to 10(-12)-10(-13) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1) in an energy interval ranging from similar to few x 100 GeV to similar to few TeV. Integral flux limits down to similar to 10(-12)-10(-13) ph cm(-2) s(-1) and similar to 10(-13)-10(-14) ph cm(-2) s(-1) are obtained at 300 and 800 GeV, respectively. Our results are used to place constraints on the particle acceleration fraction at the inner jet regions and on the physics of the jet/medium interactions. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the fraction of the jet kinetic power that is transferred to relativistic protons must be relatively small in SS 433, q(p) &lt;= 2.5 x 10(-5), to explain the lack of TeV and neutrino emission from the central system. At the SS 433/W50 interface, the presence of magnetic fields greater than or similar to 10 mu G is derived assuming a synchrotron origin for the observed X-ray emission. This also implies the presence of high-energy electrons with E-e up to 50 TeV, preventing an efficient production of gamma-ray fluxes in these interaction regions.</p>
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9.
  • Gakidou, E., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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10.
  • Abramowski, A., et al. (författare)
  • The 2010 very high energy gamma-RAY flare and 10 years of multi-wavelength observations of M 87
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 746:2, s. 151
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>The giant radio galaxy M 87 with its proximity (16 Mpc), famous jet, and very massive black hole ((3-6) x 10(9) M-circle dot) provides a unique opportunity to investigate the origin of very high energy (VHE; E &gt; 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission generated in relativistic outflows and the surroundings of supermassive black holes. M 87 has been established as a VHE gamma-ray emitter since 2006. The VHE gamma-ray emission displays strong variability on timescales as short as a day. In this paper, results from a joint VHE monitoring campaign on M 87 by the MAGIC and VERITAS instruments in 2010 are reported. During the campaign, a flare at VHE was detected triggering further observations at VHE (H.E.S.S.), X-rays (Chandra), and radio (43 GHz Very Long Baseline Array, VLBA). The excellent sampling of the VHE gamma-ray light curve enables one to derive a precise temporal characterization of the flare: the single, isolated flare is well described by a two-sided exponential function with significantly different flux rise and decay times of tau(rise)(d) = (1.69 +/- 0.30) days and tau(decay)(d) = (0.611 +/- 0.080) days, respectively. While the overall variability pattern of the 2010 flare appears somewhat different from that of previous VHE flares in 2005 and 2008, they share very similar timescales (similar to day), peak fluxes (Phi(&gt;0.35 TeV) similar or equal to (1-3) x 10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1)), and VHE spectra. VLBA radio observations of 43 GHz of the inner jet regions indicate no enhanced flux in 2010 in contrast to observations in 2008, where an increase of the radio flux of the innermost core regions coincided with a VHE flare. On the other hand, Chandra X-ray observations taken similar to 3 days after the peak of the VHE gamma-ray emission reveal an enhanced flux from the core (flux increased by factor similar to 2; variability timescale &lt;2 days). The long-term (2001-2010) multi-wavelength (MWL) light curve of M 87, spanning from radio to VHE and including data from Hubble Space Telescope, Liverpool Telescope, Very Large Array, and European VLBI Network, is used to further investigate the origin of the VHE gamma-ray emission. No unique, common MWL signature of the three VHE flares has been identified. In the outer kiloparsec jet region, in particular in HST-1, no enhanced MWL activity was detected in 2008 and 2010, disfavoring it as the origin of the VHE flares during these years. Shortly after two of the three flares (2008 and 2010), the X-ray core was observed to be at a higher flux level than its characteristic range (determined from more than 60 monitoring observations: 2002-2009). In 2005, the strong flux dominance of HST-1 could have suppressed the detection of such a feature. Published models for VHE gamma-ray emission from M 87 are reviewed in the light of the new data.</p>
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