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- Carvalho, Bruno M., et al.
(författare)
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A climatic suitability indicator to support Leishmania infantum surveillance in Europe : a modelling study
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet Regional Health. - : Elsevier. - 2666-7762. ; 43
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Leishmaniases are neglected diseases transmitted by sand flies. They disproportionately affect vulnerable groups globally. Understanding the relationship between climate and disease transmission allows the development of relevant decision-support tools for public health policy and surveillance. The aim of this modelling study was to develop an indicator that tracks climatic suitability for Leishmania infantum transmission in Europe at the subnational level.Methods: Historical records of sand fly vectors, human leishmaniasis, bioclimatic indicators, and environmental variables were integrated in a machine learning framework (XGBoost) to predict suitability in two past periods (2001–2010 and 2011–2020). We further assessed if predictions were associated with human and animal disease data from selected countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain).Findings: An increase in the number of climatically suitable regions for leishmaniasis was detected, especially in southern and eastern countries, coupled with a northward expansion towards central Europe. The final model had excellent predictive ability (AUC = 0.970 [0.947–0.993]), and the suitability predictions were positively associated with human leishmaniasis incidence and canine seroprevalence for Leishmania.Interpretation: This study demonstrates how key epidemiological data can be combined with open-source climatic and environmental information to develop an indicator that effectively tracks spatiotemporal changes in climatic suitability and disease risk. The positive association between the model predictions and human disease incidence demonstrates that this indicator could help target leishmaniasis surveillance to transmission hotspots.Funding: European Union Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme (European Climate-Health Cluster), United Kingdom Research and Innovation.
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| 2. |
- Colon-Gonzalez, J. Felipe, et al.
(författare)
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Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world : a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 5:7, s. E404-E414
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient.Methods: Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways.Findings: We show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and urban areas.Interpretation: Rising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission.
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| 4. |
- O'Reilly, Kathleen M., et al.
(författare)
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Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America : a modelling analysis
- 2018
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Ingår i: BMC Medicine. - : BioMed Central. - 1741-7015. ; 16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.Methods: Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories.Results: There was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p < 0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases.Conclusions: The findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.
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| 5. |
- Rocklöv, Joacim, Professor, 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Decision-support tools to build climate resilience against emerging infectious diseases in Europe and beyond
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet Regional Health. - : Elsevier. - 2666-7762. ; 32
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is one of several drivers of recurrent outbreaks and geographical range expansion of infectious diseases in Europe. We propose a framework for the co-production of policy-relevant indicators and decision-support tools that track past, present, and future climate-induced disease risks across hazard, exposure, and vulnerability domains at the animal, human, and environmental interface. This entails the co-development of early warning and response systems and tools to assess the costs and benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures across sectors, to increase health system resilience at regional and local levels and reveal novel policy entry points and opportunities. Our approach involves multi-level engagement, innovative methodologies, and novel data streams. We take advantage of intelligence generated locally and empirically to quantify effects in areas experiencing rapid urban transformation and heterogeneous climate-induced disease threats. Our goal is to reduce the knowledge-to-action gap by developing an integrated One Health—Climate Risk framework.
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| 9. |
- Romanello, Marina, et al.
(författare)
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Tracking progress on health and climate change in Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet Public Health. - : Elsevier. - 2468-2667. ; 6:11, s. e858-e865
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Left unabated, climate change will have catastrophic effects on the health of present and future generations. Such effects are already seen in Europe, through more frequent and severe extreme weather events, alterations to water and food systems, and changes in the environmental suitability for infectious diseases. As one of the largest current and historical contributors to greenhouse gases and the largest provider of financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation, Europe's response is crucial, for both human health and the planet. To ensure that health and wellbeing are protected in this response it is essential to build the capacity to understand, monitor, and quantify health impacts of climate change and the health co-benefits of accelerated action. Responding to this need, the Lancet Countdown in Europe is established as a transdisciplinary research collaboration for monitoring progress on health and climate change in Europe. With the wealth of data and academic expertise available in Europe, the collaboration will develop region-specific indicators to address the main challenges and opportunities of Europe's response to climate change for health. The indicators produced by the collaboration will provide information to health and climate policy decision making, and will also contribute to the European Observatory on Climate and Health.
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