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Sökning: WFRF:(Lunt Mark)

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1.
  • Herrick, A. L., et al. (författare)
  • Patterns and predictors of skin score change in early diffuse systemic sclerosis from the European Scleroderma Observational Study
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ Publishing Group. - 0003-4967. ; 77:4, s. 563-570
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives Our aim was to use the opportunity provided by the European Scleroderma Observational Study to (1) identify and describe those patients with early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) with progressive skin thickness, and (2) derive prediction models for progression over 12 months, to inform future randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Methods The modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) was recorded every 3 months in 326 patients. 'Progressors' were defined as those experiencing a 5-unit and 25% increase in mRSS score over 12 months (±3 months). Logistic models were fitted to predict progression and, using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, were compared on the basis of the area under curve (AUC), accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV). Results 66 patients (22.5%) progressed, 227 (77.5%) did not (33 could not have their status assessed due to insufficient data). Progressors had shorter disease duration (median 8.1 vs 12.6 months, P=0.001) and lower mRSS (median 19 vs 21 units, P=0.030) than non-progressors. Skin score was highest, and peaked earliest, in the anti-RNA polymerase III (Pol3+) subgroup (n=50). A first predictive model (including mRSS, duration of skin thickening and their interaction) had an accuracy of 60.9%, AUC of 0.666 and PPV of 33.8%. By adding a variable for Pol3 positivity, the model reached an accuracy of 71%, AUC of 0.711 and PPV of 41%. Conclusions Two prediction models for progressive skin thickening were derived, for use both in clinical practice and for cohort enrichment in RCTs. These models will inform recruitment into the many clinical trials of dcSSc projected for the coming years. Trial registration number NCT02339441. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
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2.
  • Little, Jayne, et al. (författare)
  • Glucocorticoid use and factors associated with variability in this use in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Inception Cohort
  • Ingår i: Rheumatology (United Kingdom). - : Oxford University Press. - 1462-0324. ; 57:4, s. 677-687
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives. To describe glucocorticoid (GC) use in the SLICC inception cohort and to explore factors associated with GC use. In particular we aimed to assess temporal trends in GC use and to what extent physician-related factors may influence use. Methods. Patients were recruited within 15 months of diagnosis of SLE from 33 centres between 1999 and 2011 and continue to be reviewed annually. Descriptive statistics were used to detail oral and parenteral GC use. Cross sectional and longitudinal analyses were performed to explore factors associated with GC use at enrolment and over time. Results. We studied 1700 patients with a mean (S.D.) follow-up duration of 7.26 (3.82) years. Over the entire study period, 1365 (81.3%) patients received oral GCs and 447 (26.3%) received parenteral GCs at some point. GC use was strongly associated with treatment centre, age, race/ethnicity, sex, disease duration and disease activity. There was no change in the proportion of patients on GCs or the average doses of GC used over time according to year of diagnosis. Conclusion. GCs remain a cornerstone in SLE management and there have been no significant changes in their use over the past 10-15 years. While patient and disease factors contribute to the variation in GC use, between-centre differences suggest that physician-related factors also contribute. Evidence-based treatment algorithms are needed to inform a more standardized approach to GC use in SLE.
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3.
  • Parker, Ben, et al. (författare)
  • Clinical associations of the metabolic syndrome in systemic lupus erythematosus: data from an international inception cohort
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ Publishing Group. - 1468-2060. ; 72:8, s. 1308-1314
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The metabolic syndrome (MetS) may contribute to increased cardiovascular risk in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to examine the association of demographic factors, lupus phenotype and therapy exposure with the presence of MetS. Methods The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Registry for Atherosclerosis inception cohort enrolled recently diagnosed (<15months) SLE patients from 30 centres across 11 countries from 2000. Clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data were collected according to a standardised protocol. MetS was defined according to the 2009 consensus statement from the International Diabetes Federation. Univariate and backward stepwise multivariate logistic regression were used to assess the relationship of individual variables with MetS. Results We studied 1686 patients, of whom 1494 (86.6%) had sufficient data to determine their MetS status. The mean (SD) age at enrolment and disease duration was 35.2years (13.4) and 24.1weeks (18.0), respectively. MetS was present at the enrolment visit in 239 (16%). In backward stepwise multivariable regression analysis, higher daily average prednisolone dose (mg) (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.03), older age (years) (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.06), Korean (OR 6.33, 95% CI 3.68 to 10.86) and Hispanic (OR 6.2, 95% CI 3.78 to 10.12) ethnicity, current renal disease (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.80) and immunosuppressant use (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.78) were associated with MetS. Conclusions Renal lupus, higher corticosteroid doses, Korean and Hispanic ethnicity are associated with MetS in SLE patients. Balancing disease control and minimising corticosteroid exposure should therefore be at the forefront of personalised treatment decisions in SLE patients.
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4.
  • Parker, Ben, et al. (författare)
  • Impact of early disease factors on metabolic syndrome in systemic lupus erythematosus: data from an international inception cohort
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ Publishing Group. - 1468-2060. ; 74:8, s. 1530-1536
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The metabolic syndrome (MetS) may contribute to the increased cardiovascular risk in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We examined the association between MetS and disease activity, disease phenotype and corticosteroid exposure over time in patients with SLE. Methods Recently diagnosed (< 15 months) patients with SLE from 30 centres across 11 countries were enrolled into the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort from 2000 onwards. Baseline and annual assessments recorded clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data. A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with MetS in the first 2 years of follow-up was performed using random effects logistic regression. Results We studied 1150 patients with a mean (SD) age of 34.9 (13.6) years and disease duration at enrolment of 24.2 (18.0) weeks. In those with complete data, MetS prevalence was 38.2% at enrolment, 34.8% at year 1 and 35.4% at year 2. In a multivariable random effects model that included data from all visits, prior MetS status, baseline renal disease, SLICC Damage Index > 1, higher disease activity, increasing age and Hispanic or Black African race/ethnicity were independently associated with MetS over the first 2 years of follow-up in the cohort. Conclusions MetS is a persistent phenotype in a significant proportion of patients with SLE. Renal lupus, active inflammatory disease and damage are SLE-related factors that drive MetS development while antimalarial agents appear to be protective from early in the disease course.
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5.
  • Armbrecht, Gabriele, et al. (författare)
  • Degenerative inter-vertebral disc disease osteochondrosis intervertebralis in Europe : Prevalence, geographic variation and radiological correlates in men and women aged 50 and over
  • Ingår i: Rheumatology. - : Oxford University Press. - 1462-0324. ; 56:7, s. 1189-1199
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives. To assess the prevalences across Europe of radiological indices of degenerative inter-vertebral disc disease (DDD); and to quantify their associations with, age, sex, physical anthropometry, areal BMD (aBMD) and change in aBMD with time. Methods. In the population-based European Prospective Osteoporosis Study, 27 age-stratified samples of men and women from across the continent aged 50+ years had standardized lateral radiographs of the lumbar and thoracic spine to evaluate the severity of DDD, using the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) scale. Measurements of anterior, mid-body and posterior vertebral heights on all assessed vertebrae from T4 to L4 were used to generate indices of end-plate curvature. Results. Images from 10 132 participants (56% female, mean age 63.9 years) passed quality checks. Overall, 47% of men and women had DDD grade 3 or more in the lumbar spine and 36% in both thoracic and lumbar spine. Risk ratios for DDD grades 3 and 4, adjusted for age and anthropometric determinants, varied across a three-fold range between centres, yet prevalences were highly correlated in men and women. DDD was associated with flattened, non-ovoid inter-vertebral disc spaces. KL grade 4 and loss of inter-vertebral disc space were associated with higher spine aBMD. Conclusion. KL grades 3 and 4 are often used clinically to categorize radiological DDD. Highly variable European prevalences of radiologically defined DDD grades 3+ along with the large effects of age may have growing and geographically unequal health and economic impacts as the population ages. These data encourage further studies of potential genetic and environmental causes.
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6.
  • Coda, S., et al. (författare)
  • Physics research on the TCV tokamak facility: From conventional to alternative scenarios and beyond
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP PUBLISHING LTD. - 0029-5515 .- 1741-4326. ; 59:11
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The research program of the TCV tokamak ranges from conventional to advanced-tokamak scenarios and alternative divertor configurations, to exploratory plasmas driven by theoretical insight, exploiting the device's unique shaping capabilities. Disruption avoidance by real-time locked mode prevention or unlocking with electron-cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH) was thoroughly documented, using magnetic and radiation triggers. Runaway generation with high-Z noble-gas injection and runaway dissipation by subsequent Ne or Ar injection were studied for model validation. The new 1 MW neutral beam injector has expanded the parameter range, now encompassing ELMy H-modes in an ITER-like shape and nearly non-inductive H-mode discharges sustained by electron cyclotron and neutral beam current drive. In the H-mode, the pedestal pressure increases modestly with nitrogen seeding while fueling moves the density pedestal outwards, but the plasma stored energy is largely uncorrelated to either seeding or fueling. High fueling at high triangularity is key to accessing the attractive small edge-localized mode (type-II) regime. Turbulence is reduced in the core at negative triangularity, consistent with increased confinement and in accord with global gyrokinetic simulations. The geodesic acoustic mode, possibly coupled with avalanche events, has been linked with particle flow to the wall in diverted plasmas. Detachment, scrape-off layer transport, and turbulence were studied in L- and H-modes in both standard and alternative configurations (snowflake, super-X, and beyond). The detachment process is caused by power 'starvation' reducing the ionization source, with volume recombination playing only a minor role. Partial detachment in the H-mode is obtained with impurity seeding and has shown little dependence on flux expansion in standard single-null geometry. In the attached L-mode phase, increasing the outer connection length reduces the in-out heat-flow asymmetry. A doublet plasma, featuring an internal X-point, was achieved successfully, and a transport barrier was observed in the mantle just outside the internal separatrix. In the near future variable-configuration baffles and possibly divertor pumping will be introduced to investigate the effect of divertor closure on exhaust and performance, and 3.5 MW ECRH and 1 MW neutral beam injection heating will be added.
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7.
  • Haywood, Alan M., et al. (författare)
  • The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 : large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:6, s. 2095-2123
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near similar to 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 degrees C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 degrees C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 degrees C over land and 2.8 degrees C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 degrees N and 60 degrees S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8 degrees C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
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8.
  • Herrick, Ariane L, et al. (författare)
  • Treatment outcome in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis : The European Scleroderma Observational Study (ESOS)
  • Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ Publishing Group. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 76:7, s. 1207-1218
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives: The rarity of early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) makes randomised controlled trials very difficult. We aimed to use an observational approach to compare effectiveness of currently used treatment approaches. Methods: This was a prospective, observational cohort study of early dcSSc (within three years of onset of skin thickening). Clinicians selected one of four protocols for each patient: methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil (MMF), cyclophosphamide or 'no immunosuppressant'. Patients were assessed three-monthly for up to 24 months. The primary outcome was the change in modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS). Confounding by indication at baseline was accounted for using inverse probability of treatment (IPT) weights. As a secondary outcome, an IPT-weighted Cox model was used to test for differences in survival. Results Of 326 patients recruited from 50 centres, 65 were prescribed methotrexate, 118 MMF, 87 cyclophosphamide and 56 no immunosuppressant. 276 (84.7%) patients completed 12 and 234 (71.7%) 24 months follow-up (or reached last visit date). There were statistically significant reductions in mRSS at 12 months in all groups: -4.0 (-5.2 to -2.7) units for methotrexate, -4.1 (-5.3 to -2.9) for MMF, -3.3 (-4.9 to -1.7) for cyclophosphamide and -2.2 (-4.0 to -0.3) for no immunosuppressant (p value for between-group differences=0.346). There were no statistically significant differences in survival between protocols before (p=0.389) or after weighting (p=0.440), but survival was poorest in the no immunosuppressant group (84.0%) at 24 months. Conclusions: These findings may support using immunosuppressants for early dcSSc but suggest that overall benefit is modest over 12 months and that better treatments are needed.
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9.
  • Labit, B., et al. (författare)
  • Dependence on plasma shape and plasma fueling for small edge-localized mode regimes in TCV and ASDEX Upgrade
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0029-5515 .- 1741-4326. ; 59:8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • © 2019 Institute of Physics Publishing. All rights reserved. Within the EUROfusion MST1 work package, a series of experiments has been conducted on AUG and TCV devices to disentangle the role of plasma fueling and plasma shape for the onset of small ELM regimes. On both devices, small ELM regimes with high confinement are achieved if and only if two conditions are fulfilled at the same time. Firstly, the plasma density at the separatrix must be large enough (ne,sep/nG ∼ 0.3), leading to a pressure profile flattening at the separatrix, which stabilizes type-I ELMs. Secondly, the magnetic configuration has to be close to a double null (DN), leading to a reduction of the magnetic shear in the extreme vicinity of the separatrix. As a consequence, its stabilizing effect on ballooning modes is weakened.
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10.
  • Meyer, H.F., et al. (författare)
  • Overview of physics studies on ASDEX Upgrade
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP PUBLISHING LTD. - 0029-5515 .- 1741-4326. ; 59:11
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) programme, jointly run with the EUROfusion MST1 task force, continues to significantly enhance the physics base of ITER and DEMO. Here, the full tungsten wall is a key asset for extrapolating to future devices. The high overall heating power, flexible heating mix and comprehensive diagnostic set allows studies ranging from mimicking the scrape-off-layer and divertor conditions of ITER and DEMO at high density to fully non-inductive operation (q 95 = 5.5, ) at low density. Higher installed electron cyclotron resonance heating power 6 MW, new diagnostics and improved analysis techniques have further enhanced the capabilities of AUG. Stable high-density H-modes with MW m-1 with fully detached strike-points have been demonstrated. The ballooning instability close to the separatrix has been identified as a potential cause leading to the H-mode density limit and is also found to play an important role for the access to small edge-localized modes (ELMs). Density limit disruptions have been successfully avoided using a path-oriented approach to disruption handling and progress has been made in understanding the dissipation and avoidance of runaway electron beams. ELM suppression with resonant magnetic perturbations is now routinely achieved reaching transiently . This gives new insight into the field penetration physics, in particular with respect to plasma flows. Modelling agrees well with plasma response measurements and a helically localised ballooning structure observed prior to the ELM is evidence for the changed edge stability due to the magnetic perturbations. The impact of 3D perturbations on heat load patterns and fast-ion losses have been further elaborated. Progress has also been made in understanding the ELM cycle itself. Here, new fast measurements of and E r allow for inter ELM transport analysis confirming that E r is dominated by the diamagnetic term even for fast timescales. New analysis techniques allow detailed comparison of the ELM crash and are in good agreement with nonlinear MHD modelling. The observation of accelerated ions during the ELM crash can be seen as evidence for the reconnection during the ELM. As type-I ELMs (even mitigated) are likely not a viable operational regime in DEMO studies of 'natural' no ELM regimes have been extended. Stable I-modes up to have been characterised using -feedback. Core physics has been advanced by more detailed characterisation of the turbulence with new measurements such as the eddy tilt angle - measured for the first time - or the cross-phase angle of and fluctuations. These new data put strong constraints on gyro-kinetic turbulence modelling. In addition, carefully executed studies in different main species (H, D and He) and with different heating mixes highlight the importance of the collisional energy exchange for interpreting energy confinement. A new regime with a hollow profile now gives access to regimes mimicking aspects of burning plasma conditions and lead to nonlinear interactions of energetic particle modes despite the sub-Alfvénic beam energy. This will help to validate the fast-ion codes for predicting ITER and DEMO.
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