| 1. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Reifarth, R., et al.
(författare)
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Nuclear astrophysics with radioactive ions at FAIR
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics: Conference Series. - : IOP Publishing. - 1742-6588 .- 1742-6596. ; 665:1
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The nucleosynthesis of elements beyond iron is dominated by neutron captures in the s and r processes. However, 32 stable, proton-rich isotopes cannot be formed during those processes, because they are shielded from the s-process flow and r-process beta-decay chains. These nuclei are attributed to the p and rp process. For all those processes, current research in nuclear astrophysics addresses the need for more precise reaction data involving radioactive isotopes. Depending on the particular reaction, direct or inverse kinematics, forward or time-reversed direction are investigated to determine or at least to constrain the desired reaction cross sections. The Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) will offer unique, unprecedented opportunities to investigate many of the important reactions. The high yield of radioactive isotopes, even far away from the valley of stability, allows the investigation of isotopes involved in processes as exotic as the r or rp processes.
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| 3. |
- Haagsma, JA, et al.
(författare)
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Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention. - : BMJ. - 1475-5785 .- 1353-8047. ; 26:SUPP_1Supp 1, s. 12-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.MethodsInjury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.ResultsFor many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.ConclusionsThe overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
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| 4. |
- Ferrari, P., et al.
(författare)
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Model-Based Stealth Attack to Networked Control System Based on Real-Time Ethernet
- 2021
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Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. - 0278-0046 .- 1557-9948. ; 68:8, s. 7672-7683
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this article, industrial control systems include networked control systems (NCS), which use real-time Ethernet (RTE) protocols since many years, well before the time sensitive networking initiative debut. Today, ethernet-based control systems are used all across Industry 4.0, including in critical applications, allowing for straight integration with information technology layers. Even if it is known that current RTE protocols do not have strong authentication or ciphering options, it is still very challenging to perform undetected cyber-attacks to these protocols while the NSC is in operation, in particular because such attacks must comply with very strict and small temporal constraints. In this article, a model-based attack is proposed for service degradation of NCS. The attack is carried out in real-time and it can remain undetected for the entire plant life. The attack can be applied to any RTE protocols and, without loss of generality, a detailed analysis of stealth techniques is provided for a specific real use case based on PROFINET. The experimental results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed attack and its high effectiveness. The article also points out some possible future investigation directions in order to mitigate the attack. © 1982-2012 IEEE.
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| 5. |
- Ferrari, P., et al.
(författare)
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Work-in-Progress : Compromising Security of Real-time Ethernet Devices by means of Selective Queue Saturation Attack
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. - 9781728152974
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The industrial control systems (ICS) are using Real-Time Ethernet (RTE) protocols for many years. Today, Ethernet based control systems are widely used in industries. The Time Sensitive Networking (TSN) initiative will definitely push their further diffusion. With the introduction of Industry 4.0, production machines and their components have been connected to the Internet. Currently adopted RTE protocols do not require authentication, and hence may exchange data also with potentially malicious partners. In this paper, a selective Denial of Service (DoS) attack is presented. The proposed Selective Queue Saturation Attack (SQSA) is aimed to jam the message queue of the RTE communication stack in selected devices. The SQSA minimizes the chances of being detected by keeping its requirements (in term generated traffic) as low as possible. The SQSA has been applied to a real scenario based on PROFINET. The results of the use case demonstrate: the feasibility of the proposed attack; the reduced footprint compared to known DoS attacks (more than one thousand times less); and the selectivity of the attack, which can disrupt the realtime behavior of even a single target node inside the RTE network. © 2020 IEEE.
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| 6. |
- Pasetti, M., et al.
(författare)
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Artificial Neural Network-Based Stealth Attack on Battery Energy Storage Systems
- 2021
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Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. - 1949-3053 .- 1949-3061.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the number of installed Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSs) increases, the concerns related to possible cyberattacks to these systems rise accordingly. The most of BESS owners knows their systems may be vulnerable, but they often consider only denial of service attacks in their risk assessment. Unfortunately, other, subtler and more dangerous attacks exist. In this paper we show that a stealth attack to BESSs can be performed by applying a Man-in-the-Middle (MitM) approach. The aim of the attack is to stealthily manage the physical system by hiding the actual behavior of the system to its supervisory controller. In this case the attacker would be able to: (i) degrade the BESS by reducing its expected lifetime, (ii) produce economic losses for the prosumer, and (iii) affect the security and stability of the grid. The feasibility of the attack is demonstrated by providing an example of a stealth MitM attack on a real BESS coupled with a photovoltaic power plant. The proposed case study demonstrates that such attack can be performed without being discovered by end-users and shows that its effects can be severe. Finally, possible strategies to avoid or detect such kind of attack are discussed. IEEE
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