| 1. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N., et al.
(författare)
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The PREDICTS database : a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 4:24, s. 4701-4735
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - ). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.
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| 2. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 3. |
- Blenckner, Thorsten, et al.
(författare)
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Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures
- 2015
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 282:1803
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socioeconomic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million E per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.
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| 4. |
- Davies, Stuart J., et al.
(författare)
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ForestGEO: Understanding forest diversity and dynamics through a global observatory network
- 2021
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Ingår i: Biological Conservation. - : Elsevier BV. - 0006-3207. ; 253
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ForestGEO is a network of scientists and long-term forest dynamics plots (FDPs) spanning the Earth's major forest types. ForestGEO's mission is to advance understanding of the diversity and dynamics of forests and to strengthen global capacity for forest science research. ForestGEO is unique among forest plot networks in its large-scale plot dimensions, censusing of all stems ≥1 cm in diameter, inclusion of tropical, temperate and boreal forests, and investigation of additional biotic (e.g., arthropods) and abiotic (e.g., soils) drivers, which together provide a holistic view of forest functioning. The 71 FDPs in 27 countries include approximately 7.33 million living trees and about 12,000 species, representing 20% of the world's known tree diversity. With >1300 published papers, ForestGEO researchers have made significant contributions in two fundamental areas: species coexistence and diversity, and ecosystem functioning. Specifically, defining the major biotic and abiotic controls on the distribution and coexistence of species and functional types and on variation in species' demography has led to improved understanding of how the multiple dimensions of forest diversity are structured across space and time and how this diversity relates to the processes controlling the role of forests in the Earth system. Nevertheless, knowledge gaps remain that impede our ability to predict how forest diversity and function will respond to climate change and other stressors. Meeting these global research challenges requires major advances in standardizing taxonomy of tropical species, resolving the main drivers of forest dynamics, and integrating plot-based ground and remote sensing observations to scale up estimates of forest diversity and function, coupled with improved predictive models. However, they cannot be met without greater financial commitment to sustain the long-term research of ForestGEO and other forest plot networks, greatly expanded scientific capacity across the world's forested nations, and increased collaboration and integration among research networks and disciplines addressing forest science.
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| 5. |
- Reed, Mark S., et al.
(författare)
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The future of the uplands
- 2009
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Ingår i: Land use policy. - : Elsevier Limited. - 0264-8377 .- 1873-5754. ; 26:Supplement 1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Upland areas provide UK society with many important functions, goods and services, but have experienced a number of disturbing trends and face an uncertain future. This paper outlines historic, current and future drivers of environmental, economic, socio-cultural and policy change in UK uplands, and assesses how these have affected or are likely to affect ways in which land is used and the provision of ecosystem services. Information is synthesised into scenarios summarising a range of possible futures anticipated for UK uplands to 2060 and beyond. Finally, innovations in science, technology, governance and policy are evaluated that could enable uplands to continue providing key ecosystem services under a range of scenarios. The paper concludes that many upland areas will need to be prepared for significant reductions in grazing and prescribed burning. Conversely, other areas could experience agricultural intensification, for example significant increases in grazing or an expansion of arable or bioenergy crops into upland valleys, due to anticipated increases in global demand for food and energy. These scenarios will take place in the context of climate change. Many may take place together and may interact with each other, with complex and unpredictable implications for the upland environment, economy and society. In this context, a number of advances are needed in science, technology and policy to maintain viable uplandcommunities and the future provision of ecosystem services. These may include funding for ecological and hydrological restoration via carbon offsetting or other means. It may also involve advances in ecosystem service modelling, mapping and valuation, which through stakeholder participation could facilitate more integrated rural planning. New forms of environmental governance need to be explored that can empower those interested in developing upland economies to maintain thriving upland communities, while managing the ecosystem services they provide as efficiently as possible.
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| 6. |
- Schoville, Sean D., et al.
(författare)
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A model species for agricultural pest genomics : The genome of the Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Colorado potato beetle is one of the most challenging agricultural pests to manage. It has shown a spectacular ability to adapt to a variety of solanaceaeous plants and variable climates during its global invasion, and, notably, to rapidly evolve insecticide resistance. To examine evidence of rapid evolutionary change, and to understand the genetic basis of herbivory and insecticide resistance, we tested for structural and functional genomic changes relative to other arthropod species using genome sequencing, transcriptomics, and community annotation. Two factors that might facilitate rapid evolutionary change include transposable elements, which comprise at least 17% of the genome and are rapidly evolving compared to other Coleoptera, and high levels of nucleotide diversity in rapidly growing pest populations. Adaptations to plant feeding are evident in gene expansions and differential expression of digestive enzymes in gut tissues, as well as expansions of gustatory receptors for bitter tasting. Surprisingly, the suite of genes involved in insecticide resistance is similar to other beetles. Finally, duplications in the RNAi pathway might explain why Leptinotarsa decemlineata has high sensitivity to dsRNA. The L. decemlineata genome provides opportunities to investigate a broad range of phenotypes and to develop sustainable methods to control this widely successful pest.
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| 7. |
- Svensson, Carl, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Norway spruce productivity in southern Sweden is equally limited by nitrogen and phosphorous
- 2024
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Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier. - 0378-1127 .- 1872-7042. ; 572
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nutrient limitation of forest growth, especially nitrogen (N) deficiency, is widespread in the boreal region. N fertilisation has thus become a common silvicultural practice in Fennoscandian Norway spruce stands, but to what extent phosphorus (P) is co-limiting productivity and how initial basal area affects the growth response to N addition remains unresolved. To address these questions, two experiments were established in mid-rotation Norway spruce stands in southern Sweden where decades of high atmospheric N deposition have reduced the severity of N-limitation. In a P experiment initiated in 2011, we tested P addition alone (two applications of 200 kg P ha−1) and in a second study also starting in 2011 (NP experiment), a single dose of N was administered alone (200 kg ha−1 in thinned and unthinned stands, hereafter called N and N-unthinned treatments) and in combination with P (N+P = one-time 200 kg N ha−1, two applications of 200 kg P ha−1 in thinned stands). P addition alone increased PAI (periodic annual increment) significantly by 21 % during the first, moister assessment period up to 2014 and by 18 % in the drier 2015–2019 period, resulting in a 10 % increase in final stem volume yield. In the NP experiment, significant PAI increases under favourable meteorological conditions up to 2014 occurred in all fertilisation treatments. The strongest effects were seen in the N-unthinned treatment while no significant additive effect resulted from the joint addition of N and P (N: +20 %, N-unthinned: +38 %, N+P: +23 %). In the drier 2015–2019 period, only the N+P treatment caused significantly greater PAI (+29 %). Final stem volume yield in the NP experiment significantly increased by 10 %, 39 % and 16 % in the N, N-unthinned and N+P plots, respectively. In both experiments, foliar P and thus P/N rose drastically in response to P addition alone or in combination with N. Minor increases in leaf area index (LAI) only occurred in P-containing treatments. Our findings indicate that Norway spruce productivity in southern Sweden is constrained to a similar extent by both N and P. Sustainable nutrient management in Norway spruce growing regions with high N loading (like southern Sweden) should prioritise P over N supply.
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| 8. |
- Van Sundert, Kevin, et al.
(författare)
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When things get MESI : The Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative—A coordinated effort to synthesize terrestrial global change experiments
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 29:7, s. 1922-1938
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Responses of the terrestrial biosphere to rapidly changing environmental conditions are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. In an effort to reduce this uncertainty, a wide range of global change experiments have been conducted that mimic future conditions in terrestrial ecosystems, manipulating CO2, temperature, and nutrient and water availability. Syntheses of results across experiments provide a more general sense of ecosystem responses to global change, and help to discern the influence of background conditions such as climate and vegetation type in determining global change responses. Several independent syntheses of published data have yielded distinct databases for specific objectives. Such parallel, uncoordinated initiatives carry the risk of producing redundant data collection efforts and have led to contrasting outcomes without clarifying the underlying reason for divergence. These problems could be avoided by creating a publicly available, updatable, curated database. Here, we report on a global effort to collect and curate 57,089 treatment responses across 3644 manipulation experiments at 1145 sites, simulating elevated CO2, warming, nutrient addition, and precipitation changes. In the resulting Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative (MESI) database, effects of experimental global change drivers on carbon and nutrient cycles are included, as well as ancillary data such as background climate, vegetation type, treatment magnitude, duration, and, unique to our database, measured soil properties. Our analysis of the database indicates that most experiments are short term (one or few growing seasons), conducted in the USA, Europe, or China, and that the most abundantly reported variable is aboveground biomass. We provide the most comprehensive multifactor global change database to date, enabling the research community to tackle open research questions, vital to global policymaking. The MESI database, freely accessible at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7153253, opens new avenues for model evaluation and synthesis-based understanding of how global change affects terrestrial biomes. We welcome contributions to the database on GitHub.
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| 9. |
- Vicente-Serrano, S. M., et al.
(författare)
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Vegetation greening in Spain detected from long term data (1981-2015)
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Remote Sensing. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0143-1161 .- 1366-5901. ; 41:5, s. 1709-1740
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study describes a newly developed high-resolution (1.1 km) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset for the peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands (Sp_1km_NDVI). This dataset is developed based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA–AVHRR) afternoon images, spanning the past three decades (1981–2015). After a careful pre-processing procedure, including calibration with post-launch calibration coefficients, geometric and topographic corrections, cloud removal, temporal filtering, and bi-weekly composites by maximum NDVI-value, we assessed changes in vegetation greening over the study domain using Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen statistics. Our trend results were compared with those derived from some widely recognized global NDVI datasets [e.g. the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation (GIMMS3g), Smoothed NDVI (SMN) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)]. Results demonstrate that there is a good agreement between the annual trends based on Sp_1km_NDVI product and other datasets. Nonetheless, we found some differences in the spatial patterns of the NDVI trends at the seasonal scale. Overall, in comparison to the available global NDVI datasets, Sp_1km_NDVI allows for characterizing changes in vegetation greening at a more-detailed spatial and temporal scale. In specific, our dataset provides relatively long-term corrected satellite time series (>30 years), which are crucial to understand the response of vegetation to climate change and human-induced activities. Also, given the complex spatial structure of NDVI changes over the study domain, particularly due to the rapid land intensification processes, the spatial resolution (1.1 km) of our dataset can provide detailed spatial information on the inter-annual variability of vegetation greening in this Mediterranean region and assess its links to climate change and variability.
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| 10. |
- Langeveld, H., et al.
(författare)
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Assessing Environmental Impacts of Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) Expansion: Model Definition and Preliminary Results
- 2012
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Ingår i: Bioenergy Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1939-1242 .- 1939-1234. ; 5:3, s. 621-635
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Short rotation coppice (SRC) systems can play a role as feedstock for bioenergy supply contributing to EU energy and climate policy targets. A scenario depicting intensive arable crop cultivation in a homogeneous landscape (lacking habitat structures) was compared to a scenario including SRC cultivation on 20 % of arable land. A range of indicators was selected to assess the consequences of SRC on soil, water and biodiversity, using data from the Rating-SRC project (Sweden and Germany). The results of the assessment were presented using spider diagrams. Establishment and use of SRC for bioenergy has both positive and negative effects. The former include increased carbon sequestration and reduced GHG emissions as well as reduced soil erosion, groundwater nitrate and surface runoff. SRC can be used in phytoremediation and improves plant and breeding bird biodiversity (exceptions: grassland and arable land species) but should not be applied in dry areas or on soils high in toxic trace elements (exception: cadmium). The scenario-based analysis was found useful for studying the consequences of SRC cultivation at larger scales. Limitations of the approach are related to data requirements and compatibility and its restricted ability to cover spatial diversity and dynamic processes. The findings should not be generalised beyond the representativeness of the data used.
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