| 1. |
- Carrero, Juan Jesus, et al.
(författare)
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Albuminuria changes are associated with subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality
- 2017
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Ingår i: Kidney International. - : Elsevier BV. - 0085-2538 .- 1523-1755. ; 91:1, s. 244-251
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Current guidelines for chronic kidney disease (CKD) recommend using albuminuria as well as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to stage CKD. However, CKD progression is solely defined by change in eGFR with little regard to the risk implications of change in albuminuria. This is an observational study from the Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements (SCREAM) project, a health care utilization cohort from Stockholm, Sweden, with laboratory measures from 2006-2011 and follow-up through December 2012. Included were 31,732 individuals with two or more ambulatory urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR) tests. We assessed the association between change in ACR during a baseline period of 1, 2, or 3 years and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. Using a 2-year baseline period, there were 378 ESRD events and 1712 deaths during a median of 3 years of follow-up. Compared to stable ACR, a 4-fold increase in ACR was associated with a 3.08-times (95% confidence interval 2.59 to 3.67) higher risk of ESRD while a 4-fold decrease in ACR was associated with a 0.34-times (0.26 to 0.45) lower risk of ESRD. Similar associations were found in people with and without diabetes mellitus, with and without hypertension, and also when adjusted for the change in eGFR during the same period. The association between change in ACR and mortality was weaker: ACR increase was associated with mortality, but the relationship was largely flat for ACR decline. Results were consistent for 1-, 2-, and 3-year ACR changes. Thus, changes in albuminuria are strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and death.
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| 2. |
- Coresh, Josef, et al.
(författare)
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Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 311:24, s. 2518-2531
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event.OBJECTIVE: To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated.DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data.DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR.RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.
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| 3. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Fox, Caroline S, et al.
(författare)
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Associations of kidney disease measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease in individuals with and without diabetes : a meta-analysis
- 2012
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 380:9854, s. 1662-73
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is characterised by low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high albuminuria, and is associated with adverse outcomes. Whether these risks are modified by diabetes is unknown.METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of studies selected according to Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium criteria. Data transfer and analyses were done between March, 2011, and June, 2012. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) associated with eGFR and albuminuria in individuals with and without diabetes.FINDINGS: We analysed data for 1,024,977 participants (128,505 with diabetes) from 30 general population and high-risk cardiovascular cohorts and 13 chronic kidney disease cohorts. In the combined general population and high-risk cohorts with data for all-cause mortality, 75,306 deaths occurred during a mean follow-up of 8·5 years (SD 5·0). In the 23 studies with data for cardiovascular mortality, 21,237 deaths occurred from cardiovascular disease during a mean follow-up of 9·2 years (SD 4·9). In the general and high-risk cohorts, mortality risks were 1·2-1·9 times higher for participants with diabetes than for those without diabetes across the ranges of eGFR and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). With fixed eGFR and ACR reference points in the diabetes and no diabetes groups, HR of mortality outcomes according to lower eGFR and higher ACR were much the same in participants with and without diabetes (eg, for all-cause mortality at eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) [vs 95 mL/min per 1·73 m(2)], HR 1·35; 95% CI 1·18-1·55; vs 1·33; 1·19-1·48 and at ACR 30 mg/g [vs 5 mg/g], 1·50; 1·35-1·65 vs 1·52; 1·38-1·67). The overall interactions were not significant. We identified much the same findings for ESRD in the chronic kidney disease cohorts.INTERPRETATION: Despite higher risks for mortality and ESRD in diabetes, the relative risks of these outcomes by eGFR and ACR are much the same irrespective of the presence or absence of diabetes, emphasising the importance of kidney disease as a predictor of clinical outcomes.FUNDING: US National Kidney Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Grams, Morgan, et al.
(författare)
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Decline in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate After Acute Kidney Injury: A Surrogate Endpoint?
- 2015
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Ingår i: ASN (American Society of Nephrology).
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Often a transient condition, acute kidney injury (AKI) is not currently accepted as an endpoint for drug registration trials by the US FDA. We sought to determine whether an intermediate-term change in eGFR after AKI has a sufficiently strong relationship with subsequent ESRD to serve as an alternative endpoint in clinical trials of AKI preventionand/or treatment.Methods: We evaluated 161,185 US veterans who underwent major surgery between2004-2011. Post-surgical AKI was defined by the KDIGO creatinine criteria;decline in eGFR was calculated from pre-hospitalization value to two time-points post-discharge (60-days, 90-days) and related to ESRD and mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: In-hospital mortality varied by AKI status, ranging from 1% for patients without AKI to 35% for those with dialysis-requiring AKI. An eGFR decline of ³30% at 60-days was relatively frequent: 2.5%, 9.7%, 17.2%, and 28.6% in those with no AKI, Stage 1 AKI, Stage 2 AKI, and Stage 3 AKI, respectively. There was a graded relationship between eGFR decline at 60-days and risk of ESRD in persons both with and without AKI (Figure). Compared to stable eGFR/no in-hospital AKI, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of ESRD associated with a 30% decline at 60-days after AKI was 6.42 (95% CI: 4.8-8.7). Risks for mortality associated with eGFR decline were smaller: the HR for 30% decline 60-days after in-hospital AKI was 1.59 (95% CI: 1.46-1.73). Risk relationships were similar at 90-days.Conclusions: A 30% decline in eGFR from pre-hospitalization baseline to 60-days or 90-days after an episode of AKI may be an acceptable surrogate endpoint in trials of AKI prevention and/or treatment.
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| 6. |
- Grams, Morgan E, et al.
(författare)
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Acute Kidney Injury After Major Surgery : A Retrospective Analysis of Veterans Health Administration Data.
- 2016
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Ingår i: American Journal of Kidney Diseases. - : Saunders Elsevier. - 0272-6386 .- 1523-6838. ; 67:6, s. 872-880
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Few trials of acute kidney injury (AKI) prevention after surgery have been conducted, and most observational studies focus on AKI following cardiac surgery. The frequency of, risk factors for, and outcomes after AKI following other types of major surgery have not been well characterized and may present additional opportunities for trials in AKI.STUDY DESIGN: Observational cohort study.SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3.6 million US veterans followed up from 2004 to 2011 for the receipt of major surgery (cardiac; general; ear, nose, and throat; thoracic; vascular; urologic; and orthopedic) and postoperative outcomes.FACTORS: Demographics, health characteristics, and type of surgery.OUTCOMES: Postoperative AKI defined by the KDIGO creatinine criteria, postoperative length of stay, end-stage renal disease, and mortality.RESULTS: Postoperative AKI occurred in 11.8% of the 161,185 major surgery hospitalizations (stage 1, 76%; stage 2, 15%, stage 3 [without dialysis], 7%; and AKI requiring dialysis, 2%). Cardiac surgery had the highest postoperative AKI risk (relative risk [RR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.17-1.27), followed by general (reference), thoracic (RR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98), orthopedic (RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.67-0.73), vascular (RR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64-0.71), urologic (RR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.61-0.69), and ear, nose, and throat (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37) surgery. Risk factors for postoperative AKI included older age, African American race, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and, for estimated glomerular filtration rate < 90mL/min/1.73m(2), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Participants with postoperative AKI had longer lengths of stay (15.8 vs 8.6 days) and higher rates of 30-day hospital readmission (21% vs 13%), 1-year end-stage renal disease (0.94% vs 0.05%), and mortality (19% vs 8%), with similar associations by type of surgery and more severe stage of AKI relating to poorer outcomes.LIMITATIONS: Urine output was not available to classify AKI; cohort included mostly men.CONCLUSIONS: AKI was common after major surgery, with similar risk factor and outcome associations across surgery type. These results can inform the design of clinical trials in postoperative AKI to the noncardiac surgery setting.
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| 7. |
- Grams, Morgan E, et al.
(författare)
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Candidate Surrogate End Points for ESRD after AKI
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Society of Nephrology. - : American Society of Nephrology. - 1046-6673 .- 1533-3450. ; 27:9, s. 2851-2859
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AKI, a frequently transient condition, is not accepted by the US Food and Drug Association as an end point for drug registration trials. We assessed whether an intermediate-term change in eGFR after AKI has a sufficiently strong relationship with subsequent ESRD to serve as an alternative end point in trials of AKI prevention and/or treatment. Among 161,185 United States veterans undergoing major surgery between 2004 and 2011, we characterized in-hospital AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and decline in eGFR from prehospitalization to postdischarge time points and quantified associations of these values with ESRD and mortality over a median of 3.8 years. An eGFR decline of ≥30% at 30, 60, and 90 days after discharge occurred in 3.1%, 2.5%, and 2.6%, of survivors without AKI and 15.9%, 12.2%, and 11.7%, of survivors with AKI. For patients with in-hospital AKI compared with those with no AKI and stable eGFR, a 30% decline in eGFR at 30, 60, and 90 days after discharge demonstrated adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of ESRD of 5.60 (4.06 to 7.71), 6.42 (4.76 to 8.65), and 7.27 (5.14 to 10.27), with corresponding estimates for 40% decline in eGFR of 6.98 (5.21 to 9.35), 8.03 (6.11 to 10.56), and 10.95 (8.10 to 14.82). Risks for mortality were smaller but consistent in direction. A 30%-40% decline in eGFR after AKI could be a surrogate end point for ESRD in trials of AKI prevention and/or treatment, but additional trial evidence is needed.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Hallan, Stein I, et al.
(författare)
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Age and association of kidney measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 308:22, s. 2349-60
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CONTEXT: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent in older individuals, but the risk implications of low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high albuminuria across the full age range are controversial.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate possible effect modification (interaction) by age of the association of eGFR and albuminuria with clinical risk, examining both relative and absolute risks.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Individual-level meta-analysis including 2,051,244 participants from 33 general population or high-risk (of vascular disease) cohorts and 13 CKD cohorts from Asia, Australasia, Europe, and North/South America, conducted in 1972-2011 with a mean follow-up time of 5.8 years (range, 0-31 years).MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) according to eGFR and albuminuria were meta-analyzed across age categories after adjusting for sex, race, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, body mass index, and smoking. Absolute risks were estimated using HRs and average incidence rates.RESULTS: Mortality (112,325 deaths) and ESRD (8411 events) risks were higher at lower eGFR and higher albuminuria in every age category. In general and high-risk cohorts, relative mortality risk for reduced eGFR decreased with increasing age; eg, adjusted HRs at an eGFR of 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 vs 80 mL/min/1.73 m2 were 3.50 (95% CI, 2.55-4.81), 2.21 (95% CI, 2.02-2.41), 1.59 (95% CI, 1.42-1.77), and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.23-1.48) in age categories 18-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years, respectively (P <.05 for age interaction). Absolute risk differences for the same comparisons were higher at older age (9.0 [95% CI, 6.0-12.8], 12.2 [95% CI, 10.3-14.3], 13.3 [95% CI, 9.0-18.6], and 27.2 [95% CI, 13.5-45.5] excess deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively). For increased albuminuria, reduction of relative risk with increasing age was less evident, while differences in absolute risk were higher in older age categories (7.5 [95% CI, 4.3-11.9], 12.2 [95% CI, 7.9-17.6], 22.7 [95% CI, 15.3-31.6], and 34.3 [95% CI, 19.5-52.4] excess deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively by age category, at an albumin-creatinine ratio of 300 mg/g vs 10 mg/g). In CKD cohorts, adjusted relative hazards of mortality did not decrease with age. In all cohorts, ESRD relative risks and absolute risk differences at lower eGFR or higher albuminuria were comparable across age categories.CONCLUSIONS: Both low eGFR and high albuminuria were independently associated with mortality and ESRD regardless of age across a wide range of populations. Mortality showed lower relative risk but higher absolute risk differences at older age.
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| 10. |
- Mahmoodi, Bakhtawar K, et al.
(författare)
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Associations of kidney disease measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease in individuals with and without hypertension : a meta-analysis.
- 2012
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 380:9854, s. 1649-61
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the most prevalent comorbidity in individuals with chronic kidney disease. However, whether the association of the kidney disease measures, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria, with mortality or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) differs by hypertensive status is unknown.METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of studies selected according to Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium criteria. Data transfer and analyses were done between March, 2011, and June, 2012. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and ESRD associated with eGFR and albuminuria in individuals with and without hypertension.FINDINGS: We analysed data for 45 cohorts (25 general population, seven high-risk, and 13 chronic kidney disease) with 1,127,656 participants, 364,344 of whom had hypertension. Low eGFR and high albuminuria were associated with mortality irrespective of hypertensive status in the general population and high-risk cohorts. All-cause mortality risk was 1·1-1·2 times higher in individuals with hypertension than in those without hypertension at preserved eGFR. A steeper relative risk gradient in individuals without hypertension than in those with hypertension at eGFR range 45-75 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) led to much the same mortality risk at lower eGFR. With a reference eGFR of 95 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) in each group to explicitly assess interaction, adjusted HR for all-cause mortality at eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) was 1·77 (95% CI 1·57-1·99) in individuals without hypertension versus 1·24 (1·11-1·39) in those with hypertension (p for overall interaction=0·0003). Similarly, for albumin-creatinine ratio of 300 mg/g (vs 5 mg/g), HR was 2·30 (1·98-2·68) in individuals without hypertension versus 2·08 (1·84-2·35) in those with hypertension (p for overall interaction=0·019). We recorded much the same results for cardiovascular mortality. The associations of eGFR and albuminuria with ESRD, however, did not differ by hypertensive status. Results for chronic kidney disease cohorts were similar to those for general and high-risk population cohorts.INTERPRETATION: Chronic kidney disease should be regarded as at least an equally relevant risk factor for mortality and ESRD in individuals without hypertension as it is in those with hypertension.FUNDING: US National Kidney Foundation.
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