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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 6. |
- Bondhopadhyay, Banashree, et al.
(författare)
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Cancer immunotherapy : a promising dawn in cancer research
- 2020
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Ingår i: American Journal of Blood Research. - Madison : e-Century Publishing. - 2160-1992. ; 10:6, s. 375-385
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cancer is a highly proliferative disease, which is caused due to the loss of regulation of cell cycle and apoptosis, DNA damage, faulty repair system etc. The cancer microenvironment plays a pivotal role in disease progression as they contain different types of innate and adaptive immune cells. The most important molecules that establish a correlation between inflammation, innate immunity, adaptive immunity, and cancer are the molecules released by inflammatory cells in cancer microenvironment. These molecules secreted by the immune cells, which might activate a pro-tumorigenic and anti-tumorigenic response in cancer. In inflammatory microenvironment, the equilibrium state of immunosuppressive and immunostimulatory signals are important in tumor suppression. The immunotherapeutic approaches could be more effective in cancer treatment. However, advancement in immunobiology and cancer are improving the prospects of immunotherapy alone and/or in combination with the conventional therapies. Thus, the review attempts to highlight a promising and futuristic immunotherapeutic approach in combination with conventional treatment modalities.
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| 7. |
- Bondhopadhyay, Banashree, et al.
(författare)
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The differential expression of Promyelocytic Leukemia (PML) and retinoblastoma (RB1) genes in breast cancer
- 2021
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Ingår i: Meridian Critic. - : Elsevier. - 2069-6787 .- 2214-5400. ; 28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Breast cancer consists of various subtypes like Her2+, ER/PR+Her2-, ER/PR+Her2+, TNBCs (Triple-Negative Breast Cancers), TPBCs (Triple-Positive Breast Cancers), etc., according to hormonal receptors and Her2 profile. Among these, TNBCs have limited therapeutic interventions, due to lack of receptors for ER, PR and Her2. Apart from BRCA1 and BRCA2, there are certain tumor suppressors and/or oncogenes (PML and RB1) influencing breast cancer, but the precise implication of these genes and their correlation is still not clearly understood. These genes play pivotal role in cell cycle regulation, proliferation, differentiation, survival, and apoptosis. Thus, we sought to identify the role of PML and RB1, and their correlation in breast cancer especially in TNBCs. Data demonstrated that 17% were TNBCs, interestingly among these cases, 72% showed remarkable upregulation of PML and downregulation of RB1; whereas 14% cases showed downregulation of PML and RB1, and 14% cases showed loss of expression of PML and RB1. To further validate our results, we included the data from METABRICS and TCGA datasets. Interestingly, our data showed good concordance with METABRICS and TCGA data showing upregulation of PML and downregulation of RB1 in TNBCs. In addition, we also checked the survivability effect of PML and RB1 through Kaplan-Meier plotter and observed that upregulation of PML and downregulation of RB1 decreases recurrence-free survivability in TNBC cases. Overall, the data suggests a plausible role of PML and RB1 genes in breast cancer patients particularly in TNBCs, where treatment options are limited compared to the other subtypes of breast cancer cases.
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| 8. |
- El Bairi, Khalid, et al.
(författare)
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The tale of TILs in breast cancer: A report from The International Immuno-Oncology Biomarker Working Group
- 2021
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Ingår i: npj Breast Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2374-4677. ; 7:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The advent of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in modern oncology has significantly improved survival in several cancer settings. A subgroup of women with breast cancer (BC) has immunogenic infiltration of lymphocytes with expression of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1). These patients may potentially benefit from ICI targeting the programmed death 1 (PD-1)/PD-L1 signaling axis. The use of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) as predictive and prognostic biomarkers has been under intense examination. Emerging data suggest that TILs are associated with response to both cytotoxic treatments and immunotherapy, particularly for patients with triple-negative BC. In this review from The International Immuno-Oncology Biomarker Working Group, we discuss (a) the biological understanding of TILs, (b) their analytical and clinical validity and efforts toward the clinical utility in BC, and (c) the current status of PD-L1 and TIL testing across different continents, including experiences from low-to-middle-income countries, incorporating also the view of a patient advocate. This information will help set the stage for future approaches to optimize the understanding and clinical utilization of TIL analysis in patients with BC.
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| 9. |
- Hull, Rodney, et al.
(författare)
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Microbiomics in Collusion with the Nervous System in Carcinogenesis : Diagnosis, Pathogenesis and Treatment
- 2021
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Ingår i: Microorganisms. - : MDPI. - 2076-2607. ; 9:10
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The influence of the naturally occurring population of microbes on various human diseases has been a topic of much recent interest. Not surprisingly, continuously growing attention is devoted to the existence of a gut brain axis, where the microbiota present in the gut can affect the nervous system through the release of metabolites, stimulation of the immune system, changing the permeability of the blood-brain barrier or activating the vagus nerves. Many of the methods that stimulate the nervous system can also lead to the development of cancer by manipulating pathways associated with the hallmarks of cancer. Moreover, neurogenesis or the creation of new nervous tissue, is associated with the development and progression of cancer in a similar manner as the blood and lymphatic systems. Finally, microbes can secrete neurotransmitters, which can stimulate cancer growth and development. In this review we discuss the latest evidence that support the importance of microbiota and peripheral nerves in cancer development and dissemination.
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| 10. |
- Jalouli, Jamshid, et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence of viral (HPV, EBV, HSV) infections in oral submucous fibrosis and oral cancer from India
- 2010
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Ingår i: Acta Oto-Laryngologica. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0001-6489 .- 1651-2251. ; 130:11, s. 1306-1311
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Conclusion: There is a high prevalence of human papilloma viruses (HPV) in oral submucous fibrosis (OSMF) and the etiologic implication of this finding warrants further studies. Objective: The prevalence of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) and OSMF is high in India, and the diseases are partly attributed to high consumption of betel quid containing areca nut and tobacco. This study investigated the prevalence of HPV, herpes simplex virus (HSV), and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA in two groups of patients using betel quid with tobacco, those with OSMF (n = 12) and those with OSCC (n = 62). Methods: DNA was extracted from all the samples and viral genome was examined by PCR/DNA sequencing. HPV-positive samples were analyzed separately for the high-risk types HPV 16 and 18. Results: HPV DNA, HSV DNA, and EBV DNA were detected in 11 (91%), 1 (8%), and 3 (25%) of the 12 samples from patients with OSMF compared with 15 (24%), 3 (5%), and 18 (29%), respectively, from 62 patients with OSCC. HPV 16 and 18 DNA was detected in 8/12 (67%) in the OSMF group and 10/62 (16%) in the OSCC group. The difference between presence of HPV DNA in OSMF and OSCC groups was statistically significant, while the difference between HSV and EBV DNA content in OSMF and OSCC groups was insignificant.
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