| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Choularton, T. W., et al.
(författare)
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The Great Dun Fell Cloud Experiment 1993 : An overview
- 1997
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment. - 1352-2310. ; 31:16, s. 2393-2405
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The 1993 Ground-based Cloud Experiment on Great Dun Fell used a wide range of measurements of trace gases, aerosol particles and cloud droplets at five sites to study their sources and sinks especially those in cloud. These measurements have been interpreted using a variety of models. The conclusions add to our knowledge of air pollution, acidification of the atmosphere and the ground, eutrophication and climate change. The experiment is designed to use the hill cap cloud as a flow-through reactor, and was conducted in varying levels of pollution typical of much of the rural temperate continental northern hemisphere in spring-time.
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| 5. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 6. |
- Bower, K. N., et al.
(författare)
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ACE-2 HILLCLOUD. An overview of the ACE-2 ground-based cloud experiment
- 2000
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6509. ; 52:2, s. 750-778
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ACE-2 HILLCLOUD experiment was carried out on the island of Tenerife in June-July 1997 to investigate the interaction of the boundary layer aerosol with a hill cap cloud forming over a ridge to the north-east of the island. The cloud was used as a natural flow through reactor to investigate the dependence of the cloud microphysics and chemistry on the characteristics of the aerosols and trace gases entering cloud, and to simultaneously study the influence of the physical and chemical processes occurring within the cloud on the size distribution, chemical and hygroscopic properties of the aerosol exiting cloud. 5 major ground base sites were used, measuring trace gases and aerosols upwind and downwind of the cloud, and cloud microphysics and chemistry and interstitial aerosol and gases within the cloud on the hill. 8 intensive measurement periods or runs were undertaken during cloud events, (nocturnally for seven of the eight runs) and were carried out in a wide range of airmass conditions from clean maritime to polluted continental. Polluted air was characterised by higher than average concentrations of ozone (> 50 ppbv), fine and accumulation mode aerosols (> 3000 and > 1500 cm -3 , respectively) and higher aerosol mass loadings. Cloud droplet number concentrations N, increased from 50 cm -3 in background maritime air to > 2500 cm -3 in aged polluted continental air, a concentration much higher than had previously been detected. Surprisingly, N was seen to vary almost linearly with aerosol number across this range. The droplet aerosol analyser (DAA) measured higher droplet numbers than the corrected forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) in the most polluted air, but at other times there was good agreement (FSSP = 0.95 DAA with an r 2 = 0.89 for N < 1200 cm -3 ). Background ammonia gas concentrations were around 0.3 ppbv even in air originating over the ocean, another unexpected but important result for the region. NO 2 was present in background concentrations of typically 15 pptv to 100 pptv and NO 3 . (the nitrate radical) was observed at night throughout. Calculations suggest NO 3 . losses were mainly by reaction with DMS to produce nitric acid. Low concentrations of SO 2 (~30 pptv), HNO 3 and HCl were always present. HNO 3 concentrations were higher in polluted episodes and calculations implied that these exceeded those which could be accounted for by NO 2 oxidation. It is presumed that nitric and hydrochloric acids were present as a result of outgassing from aerosol, the HNO 3 from nitrate rich aerosol transported into the region from upwind of Tenerife, and HCl from sea salt aerosol newly formed at the sea surface. The oxidants hydrogen peroxide and ozone were abundant (i.e., were well in excess over SO 2 throughout the experiment). Occasions of significant aerosol growth following cloud processing were observed, particularly in cleaner cases. Observations and modelling suggested this was due mainly to the take up of nitric acid, hydrochloric acid and ammonia by the smallest activated aerosol particles. On a few occasions a small contribution was made by the in-cloud oxidation of S(IV). The implications of these results from HILLCLOUD for the climatologically more important stratocumulus Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) clouds are considered.
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| 7. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 8. |
- Gieray, R., et al.
(författare)
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Phase partitioning of aerosol constituents in cloud based on single-particle and bulk analysis
- 1997
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment. - 1352-2310. ; 31:16, s. 2491-2502
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Single-particle analysis, performed by laser microprobe mass spectrometry and bulk analytical techniques were used to study aerosol-cloud interactions within the third field campaign of the EUROTRAC subproject 'ground-based cloud experiments' at the Great Dun Fell, Cumbria, U.K. in spring 1993. The shape of the ridge made it possible for ground-based instrumentation to sample similar parcels of air before, during and after their transit through the cloud. A single jet five-stage minicascade impactor was used for sampling particles of the interstitial aerosol. A second impactor worked in tandem with a counter-flow virtual impactor and collected residues of cloud droplets. Considering marine conditions largest droplets nucleated on sea-salt particles, whereas smaller droplets were formed on sulphate and methane sulphonate containing particles. This clearly indicates chemical inhomogeneities in the droplet phase. Particles, which were disfavoured by droplet formation, often contained the highest amounts of water-insoluble carbonaceous matter. For the submicron size range we found that the carbonaceous matter was always internally mixed with sulphate. The fraction of carbonaceous matter increased with decreasing size. A detectable fraction of particles remained in the cloud interstitial air, although they were in size as well as in composition suitable to form cloud droplets. The findings confirm that nucleation is the most important process affecting phase partitioning in cloud, but that spatial and temporal variations of water vapour supersaturation have also an influence on the observed phase partitioning. Proton induced X-ray emission analysis and light absorption measurements of filter samples showed that the average scavenged fraction was 0.77 for sulphur and 0.57 for soot in clouds formed by continental influenced air and 0.62 and 0.44, respectively, for marine influenced clouds.
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| 9. |
- Mentes, B., et al.
(författare)
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Ion-beam thermography analysis of the H2SO4-(NH4)2SO4 system in aerosol samples
- 2000
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Ingår i: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research, Section B: Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms. - 0168-583X. ; 168:4, s. 533-542
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ion-beam thermography (IBT) is used to determine the chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols. The aerosols are analyZed by a combination of four ion-beam techniques PIXE, PESA, pNRA and cPESA during thermography. These techniques monitor the concentrations of the available elements during the stepwise heating of the sample. For each element a thermogram, i.e., the concentration vs. temperature, is obtained. Vaporization of chemical compounds generated during heating will result in a decrease in concentration in the thermograms at temperatures that are characteristic for the compounds. The compounds are identified by the stoichiometric ratios and the characteristic vaporization temperatures (CVT). This paper deals with the analysis of five different laboratory-produced aerosols with the following compositions: (NH4)2SO4, (NH4)1.5H0.5SO4, NH4HSO4, (NH4)0.5H1.5SO4 and H2SO4. All compounds were readily separated with respect to response in IBT analysis and the amount of water bound to the two most acidic compounds could be quantified.
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| 10. |
- Mentes, B., et al.
(författare)
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Vaporisation characteristics and detection limits of ion beam thermography
- 1999
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Ingår i: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research, Section B: Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms. - 0168-583X. ; 150:1-4, s. 136-143
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Analytical properties of the chemical speciation method, Ion beam thermography (IBT), have been investigated. IBT combines the multi-elemental ion beam techniques PIXE, PESA, pNRA and cPESA with thermography. During thermography the sample temperature is gradually increased, causing vaporisation of chemical compounds at specific temperatures and the sample at the same time undergoes analysis by the above-mentioned techniques. The characteristic vaporisation temperature (CVT) and the stoichiometric relations between the elements vaporised at that temperature, identify the chemical compounds. This work describes the reproducibility of the method, the dependence of the rate of temperature increase, the dependence of the sample thickness and the influence from aerosol particle size on the CVT. In addition the minimum detectable mass changes for IBT analysis of marine and continental aerosols were estimated by calculation for major and minor elements.
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