| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 3. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 4. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 5. |
- Ahuja, Vasudha, et al.
(författare)
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Accuracy of 1-Hour Plasma Glucose During the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test in Diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes in Adults : A Meta-analysis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1935-5548 .- 0149-5992. ; 44:4, s. 1062-1069
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: One-hour plasma glucose (1-h PG) during the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is an accurate predictor of type 2 diabetes. We performed a meta-analysis to determine the optimum cutoff of 1-h PG for detection of type 2 diabetes using 2-h PG as the gold standard. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included 15 studies with 35,551 participants from multiple ethnic groups (53.8% Caucasian) and 2,705 newly detected cases of diabetes based on 2-h PG during OGTT. We excluded cases identified only by elevated fasting plasma glucose and/or HbA1c. We determined the optimal 1-h PG threshold and its accuracy at this cutoff for detection of diabetes (2-h PG ≥11.1 mmol/L) using a mixed linear effects regression model with different weights to sensitivity/specificity (2/3, 1/2, and 1/3). RESULTS: Three cutoffs of 1-h PG, at 10.6 mmol/L, 11.6 mmol/L, and 12.5 mmol/L, had sensitivities of 0.95, 0.92, and 0.87 and specificities of 0.86, 0.91, and 0.94 at weights 2/3, 1/2, and 1/3, respectively. The cutoff of 11.6 mmol/L (95% CI 10.6, 12.6) had a sensitivity of 0.92 (0.87, 0.95), specificity of 0.91 (0.88, 0.93), area under the curve 0.939 (95% confidence region for sensitivity at a given specificity: 0.904, 0.946), and a positive predictive value of 45%. CONCLUSIONS: The 1-h PG of ≥11.6 mmol/L during OGTT has a good sensitivity and specificity for detecting type 2 diabetes. Prescreening with a diabetes-specific risk calculator to identify high-risk individuals is suggested to decrease the proportion of false-positive cases. Studies including other ethnic groups and assessing complication risk are warranted.
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| 6. |
- Maxwell, Christopher A., et al.
(författare)
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Interplay between BRCA1 and RHAMM Regulates Epithelial Apicobasal Polarization and May Influence Risk of Breast Cancer
- 2011
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Ingår i: PLoS Biology. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1545-7885 .- 1544-9173. ; 9:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Differentiated mammary epithelium shows apicobasal polarity, and loss of tissue organization is an early hallmark of breast carcinogenesis. In BRCA1 mutation carriers, accumulation of stem and progenitor cells in normal breast tissue and increased risk of developing tumors of basal-like type suggest that BRCA1 regulates stem/progenitor cell proliferation and differentiation. However, the function of BRCA1 in this process and its link to carcinogenesis remain unknown. Here we depict a molecular mechanism involving BRCA1 and RHAMM that regulates apicobasal polarity and, when perturbed, may increase risk of breast cancer. Starting from complementary genetic analyses across families and populations, we identified common genetic variation at the low-penetrance susceptibility HMMR locus (encoding for RHAMM) that modifies breast cancer risk among BRCA1, but probably not BRCA2, mutation carriers: n = 7,584, weighted hazard ratio ((w)HR) = 1.09 (95% CI 1.02-1.16), p(trend) = 0.017; and n = 3,965, (w)HR = 1.04 (95% CI 0.94-1.16), p(trend) = 0.43; respectively. Subsequently, studies of MCF10A apicobasal polarization revealed a central role for BRCA1 and RHAMM, together with AURKA and TPX2, in essential reorganization of microtubules. Mechanistically, reorganization is facilitated by BRCA1 and impaired by AURKA, which is regulated by negative feedback involving RHAMM and TPX2. Taken together, our data provide fundamental insight into apicobasal polarization through BRCA1 function, which may explain the expanded cell subsets and characteristic tumor type accompanying BRCA1 mutation, while also linking this process to sporadic breast cancer through perturbation of HMMR/RHAMM.
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| 7. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 8. |
- Balasubramanian, Ishwarya, et al.
(författare)
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Out-Patient Management of Mild or Uncomplicated Diverticulitis: A Systematic Review
- 2017
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Ingår i: Digestive Surgery. - : S. Karger AG. - 0253-4886 .- 1421-9883. ; 34, s. 151-160
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel. Background: Management of diverticular disease has undergone a paradigm shift, with movement towards a less invasive management strategy. In keeping with this, outpatient management of uncomplicated diverticulitis (UD) has been advocated in several studies, but concerns still remain regarding the safety of this practice. Aim: To assess outcomes of out-patient management of acute UD. Methods: A comprehensive search for published studies using the search terms 'uncomplicated diverticulitis', 'mild diverticulitis' and 'out-patient' was performed. The primary outcomes were failure of medical treatment. Secondary outcomes were recurrence rate at follow up and medical cost savings. Results: The search yielded 192 publications. Of these, 10 studies met the inclusion criteria including 1 randomized controlled trial, 6 clinical controlled trials and 3 case series. There was no difference in failure rates of medical treatment (6.5 vs. 4.6%, p = 0.32) or in recurrence rates (13.0 vs. 12.1%, p = 0.81) between those receiving ambulatory care and in-patient care for UD. Ambulatory treatment is associated with an estimated daily cost savings of between 600 and 1,900 euros per patient treated. Meta-analysis of data was not possible due to heterogeneity in study designs and inclusion criteria. Conclusion: Ambulatory management of acute UD is reasonable in selected patients.
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| 9. |
- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
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Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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| 10. |
- Brandl, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Current practice in assessment and management of malnutrition in surgical oncology practice – An ESSO-EYSAC snapshot analysis
- 2024
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Ingår i: European Journal of Surgical Oncology. - 0748-7983 .- 1532-2157. ; 50:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Malnutrition is common in patients suffering from malignant diseases and has a major impact on patient outcomes. Prevention and early detection are crucial for effective treatment. This study aimed to investigate current international practice in the assessment and management of malnutrition in surgical oncology departments. Material and methods: The survey was designed by European Society of Surgical Oncology (ESSO) and ESSO Young Surgeons and Alumni Club (EYSAC) Research Academy as an online questionnaire with 41 questions addressing three main areas: participant demographics, malnutrition assessment, and perioperative nutritional standards. The survey was distributed from October to November 2021 via emails, social media and the ESSO website to surgical networks focussing on surgical oncologists. Results were collected and analysed by an independent team. Results: A total of 156 participants from 39 different countries answered the survey, reflecting a response rate of 1.4%. Surgeons reported treating a mean of 22.4 patients per month. 38% of all patients treated in surgical oncology departments were routinely screened for malnutrition. 52% of patients were perceived as being at risk for malnutrition. The most used screening tool was the “Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool” (MUST). 68% of participants agreed that the surgeon is responsible for assessing preoperative nutritional status. 49% of patients were routinely seen by dieticians. In cases of severe malnutrition, 56% considered postponing the operation. Conclusions: The reported rate of malnutrition screening by surgical oncologists is lower than expected (38%). This indicates a need for improved awareness of malnutrition in surgical oncology, and nutritional screening.
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