| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Mobeen Zafar, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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9p21 Locus Polymorphism Is A Strong Predictor of Metabolic Syndrome and Cardiometabolic Risk Phenotypes Regardless of Coronary Heart Disease.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Genes. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4425. ; 13:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The world population is genetically predisposed to metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components, also known as cardiometabolic risk phenotypes, which can cause severe health complications including coronary heart disease (CHD). Genetic variants in the 9p21 locus have been associated with CHD in a number of populations including Pakistan. However, the role of the 9p21 locus in MetS and cardiometabolic risk phenotypes (such as obesity, hypertension, hyperglycemia, and dyslipidemia) in populations with CHD or no established CHD has not been explored. Therefore, the present study was designed to explore the association of the minor/risk allele (C) of 9p21 locus SNP rs1333049 with MetS or its risk phenotypes regardless of an established CHD, in Pakistani subjects. Genotyping of rs1333049 (G/C) was performed on subjects under a case-control study design; healthy controls and cases, MetS with CHD (MetS-CHD+) and MetS with no CHD (MetS-CHD-), respectively. Genotype and allele frequencies were calculated in all study groups. Anthropometric and clinical variables (Means ± SD) were compared among study groups (i.e., controls, MetS + CHD and MetS-CHD) and minor/risk C allele carriers (GC + CC) vs. non-carriers (Normal GG genotype). Associations of the risk allele of rs1333049 SNP with disease and individual metabolic risk components were explored using adjusted multivariate logistic regression models (OR at 95% CI) with a threshold p-value of ≤0.05. Our results have shown that the minor allele frequency (MAF) was significantly high in the MAF cases (combined = 0.63, MetS-CHD+ = 0.57 and MetS-CHD- = 0.57) compared with controls (MAF = 0.39). The rs1333049 SNP significantly increased the risk of MetS, irrespective of CHD (MetS-CHD+ OR = 2.36, p < 0.05 and MetS-CHD- OR = 4.04, p < 0.05), and cardiometabolic risk phenotypes; general obesity, central obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia (OR = 1.56-3.25, p < 0.05) except hyperglycemia, which lacked any significant association (OR = 0.19, p = 0.29) in the present study group. The 9p21 genetic locus/rs1333049 SNP is strongly associated with, and can be a genetic predictor of, MetS and cardiometabolic risks, irrespective of cardiovascular diseases in the Pakistani population.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Farooq, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Thermodynamic Performance Analysis of Hydrofluoroolefins (HFO) Refrigerants in Commercial Air-Conditioning Systems for Sustainable Environment
- 2020
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Ingår i: Processes. - : MDPI. - 2227-9717. ; 8:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global warming is one of most severe environmental concerns that our planet is facing today. One of its causes is the previous generation of refrigerants that, upon release, remain in the atmosphere for longer periods and contribute towards global warming. This issue could potentially be solved by replacing the previous generation's high global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants with environmentally friendly refrigerants. This scenario requires an analysis of new refrigerants for a comparison of the thermodynamic properties of the previously used refrigerants. In the present research, a numerical study was conducted to analyze the thermodynamic performance of specifically low GWP hydrofluoroolefens (HFO) refrigerants for an actual vapor compression refrigeration cycle (VCRC) with a constant degree of 3 K superheat. The output parameters included the refrigeration effect, compressor work input, the coefficient of performance (COP), and the volumetric refrigeration capacity (VRC), all of which were calculated by varying the condenser pressure from 6 to 12 bars and vapor pressure from 0.7 to 1.9 bars. Results showed that R1234ze(Z) clearly possessed the desired thermodynamic performance. The drop in refrigeration effect for R1234ze(Z) was merely 14.6% less than that of R134a at a 12 bar condenser pressure; this was minimum drop among candidate refrigerants. The drop in the COP was the minimum for R1234ze(Z)-5.1% less than that of R134a at a 9 bar condenser pressure and 4.7% less than that of R134a at a 1.9 bar evaporator pressure, whereas the COP values of the other refrigerants dropped more drastically at higher condenser pressures. R1234ze(Z) possessed favorable thermodynamic characteristics, with a GWP of 7, and it can serve as an alternative refrigerant for refrigeration systems for a sustainable environment.
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| 5. |
- Saqlain, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Risk variants of obesity associated genes demonstrate BMI raising effect in a large cohort.
- 2022
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Ingår i: PloS one. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 17:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Obesity is highly polygenic disease where several genetic variants have been reportedly associated with obesity in different ethnicities of the world. In the current study, we identified the obesity risk or protective association and BMI raising effect of the minor allele of adiponectin, C1Q and collagen domain containing (ADIPOQ), cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CEPT), FTO alpha-ketoglutarate dependent dioxygenase (FTO), leptin (LEP), and leptin receptor (LEPR) genes in a large cohort stratified into four BMI-based body weight categories i.e., normal weight, lean, over-weight, and obese. Based on selected candidate genetic markers, the genotyping of all study subjects was performed by PCR assays, and genotypes and allele frequencies were calculated. The minor allele frequencies (MAFs) of all genetic markers were computed for total and BMI-based body weight categories and compared with MAFs of global and South Asian (SAS) populations. Genetic associations of variants with obesity risk were calculated and BMI raising effect per copy of the minor allele were estimated. The genetic variants with higher MAFs in obese BMI group were; rs2241766 (G = 0.43), rs17817449 (G = 0.54), rs9939609 (A = 0.51), rs1421085 (C = 0.53), rs1558902 (A = 0.63), and rs1137101 (G = 0.64) respectively. All these variants were significantly associated with obesity (OR = 1.03-4.42) and showed a high BMI raising effect (β = 0.239-0.31 Kg/m2) per copy of the risk allele. In contrast, the MAFs of three variants were higher in lean-normal BMI groups; rs3764261 A = 0.38, rs9941349 T = 0.43, and rs7799039 G = 0.40-0.43). These variants showed obesity protective associations (OR = 0.68-0.76), and a BMI lowering effect per copy of the protective allele (β = -0.103-0.155 Kg/m2). The rs3764261 variant also showed significant and positive association with lean body mass (OR = 2.38, CI = 1.30-4.34). Overall, we report six genetic variants of ADIPOQ, FTO and LEPR genes as obesity-risk markers and a CETP gene variant as lean mass/obesity protective marker in studied Pakistani cohort.
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| 6. |
- Ali, Muhammad Amjad, et al.
(författare)
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Transcription factors WRKY11 and WRKY17 are involved in abiotic stress responses in Arabidopsis
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of plant physiology (Print). - : Elsevier. - 0176-1617 .- 1618-1328. ; 226, s. 12-21
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant WRKY transcription factors play a vital role in abiotic stress tolerance and regulation of plant defense responses. This study examined AtWRKY11 and AtWRKY17 expression under ABA, salt, and osmotic stress at different developmental stages in Arabidopsis. We used reverse transcriptase PCR, quantitative real-time PCR, and promoter:GUS lines to analyze expression. Both genes were upregulated in response to abiotic stress. Next, we applied the same stressors to seedlings of T-DNA insertion wrky11 and 17 knock-out mutants (single and double). Under stress, the mutants exhibited slower germination and compromised root growth compared with the wild type. In most cases, double-mutant seedlings were more affected than single mutants. These results suggest that wrky11 and wrky17 are not strictly limited to plant defense responses but are also involved in conferring stress tolerance.
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| 7. |
- Arslan, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Varying Load Conditions and Cooling Energy Comparison of a Double-Inlet Pulse Tube Refrigerator
- 2020
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Ingår i: Processes. - : MDPI. - 2227-9717. ; 8:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Modeling and optimization of a double-inlet pulse tube refrigerator (DIPTR) is very difficult due to its geometry and nature. The objective of this paper was to optimize-DIPTR through experiments with the cold heat exchanger (CHX) along the comparison of cooling load with experimental data using different boundary conditions. To predict its performance, a detailed two-dimensional DIPTR model was developed. A double-drop pulse pipe cooler was used for solving continuity, dynamic and power calculations. External conditions for applicable boundaries include sinusoidal pressure from an end of the tube from a user-defined function and constant temperature or limitations of thermal flux within the outer walls of exchanger walls under colder conditions. The results of the system's cooling behavior were reported, along with the connection between the mass flow rates, heat distribution along pulse tube and cold-end pressure, the cooler load's wall temp profile and cooler loads with varied boundary conditions i.e. opening of 20% double-inlet and 40-60% orifice valves, respectively. Different loading conditions of 1 and 5W were applied on the CHX. At 150 K temperature of the cold-end heat exchanger, a maximum load of 3.7 W was achieved. The results also reveal a strong correlation between computational fluid dynamics modeling results and experimental results of the DIPTR.
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| 8. |
- Habiba, Umme, et al.
(författare)
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Differential Treatment Responses in Pakistani Schizophrenia Samples: Correlation with Sociodemographic Parameters, Drug Addiction, Attitude to the Treatment and Antipsychotic Agents
- 2023
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Ingår i: Brain Sciences. - : MDPI AG. - 2076-3425. ; 13:407, s. 1-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Schizophrenia patients demonstrate variations in response to different therapies that are currently being used for the treatment of disorders, such as augmentation therapy (ECT or mood stabilizer) and combination therapy (with antipsychotics). These therapies are also used to treat schizophrenia patients in Pakistan; however, patients show poor overall response. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the association between the patients’ response to treatment and the use of antipsychotic agents, with variability in overall response, within different groups of patients. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study that included schizophrenia subjects (N = 200) belonging to different age groups, ethnicities, and regions from different outpatient and inpatient departments in psychiatric institutes located in different cities of Pakistan. These patients were assessed for their response to treatment therapies and categorized into four groups (non-responders (N-R), slow response (S-R), patients with relapse, and completely recovered patients (C-R)) according to their responses. Results: The final analysis included 200 subjects, of which 73.5% were males. Mean age was 34 ± 10 years. Percentage of N-R was 5%, S-R was 42%, patients with relapse were 24%, and C-R was 1.5%. The generalized linear regression model shows a significant association between medication response and age (p = 0.0231), age of onset (p = 0.0086), gender (p = 0.005), and marital status (p = 0.00169). Variability within the medication responses was a result of the treatment regime followed. Antipsychotic agents were significantly associated with the treatment response (p = 0.00258, F = 4.981) of the patients. Significant variation was also observed in the treatment response (p = 0.00128) of the patients that were given augmentation therapy as well as combination therapy. Conclusion: The data suggests proper monitoring of patients’ behavior in response to treatment therapies to implement tailored interventions. Despite several genetic studies supporting the heritability of schizophrenia, an insignificant association between characteristic features and family history might have been due to the limited sample size, suggesting collaborative work with massive sample sizes.
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| 9. |
- Nawaz, Sadia, et al.
(författare)
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WNT10A missense mutation associated with a complete odonto-onycho-dermal dysplasia syndrome
- 2009
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Ingår i: European Journal of Human Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1018-4813 .- 1476-5438. ; 17:12, s. 1600-1605
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wnt signalling is one of a few pathways that are crucial for controlling genetic programs during embryonic development as well as in adult tissues. WNT10A is expressed in the skin and epidermis and it has shown to be critical for the development of ectodermal appendages. A nonsense mutation in WNT10A was recently identified in odonto-onycho-dermal dysplasia (OODD; MIM 257980), a rare syndrome characterised by severe hypodontia, nail dystrophy, smooth tongue, dry skin, keratoderma and hyperhydrosis of palms and soles. We identified a large consanguineous Pakistani pedigree comprising six individuals affected by a complete OODD syndrome. Autozygosity mapping using SNP array analysis showed that the affected individuals are homozygous for the WNT10A gene region. Subsequent mutation screening showed a homozygous c.392C>T transition in exon 3 of WNT10A, which predicts a p.A131V substitution in a conserved alpha-helix domain. We report here on the first inherited missense mutation in WNT10A with associated ectodermal features.
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| 10. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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