| 1. |
- Hii, Yien Ling, et al.
(författare)
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Dengue risk index as an early warning
- 2013
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Introduction: A dengue early warning forewarns stakeholders and promotes timely prevention. Besides accuracy and timeliness, an effective early warning system must be comprised of a structure that allows clear and comprehensible communications to stakeholders, and facilitates planning of actions that corroborate with risks. To aid such communication and planning efforts, this study established a risk-stratified forecast strategy which relies on uniformly interpreted risk indices derived from forecasted dengue cases. Methodologies & Findings: We adopted the Poisson forecasting model developed by Hii et al. (2012) as model-1 and established a model-2 that considered only temperature and rainfall. We validate and compared the models for their forecast precision and sensitivity to diagnose outbreak and non-outbreak. Models were trained using data from 2001-2010. Forecast precision for the period 2011-2012 was analyzed using six cross-validations of 16-weeks forecast and root mean square errors. Operating Characteristic curve was used to analyze sensitivity of models. Forecasts were then translated into dengue risk indices according to estimated alert and epidemic thresholds. Results showed that model-1 and model-2 explained about 84% and 70% of variance in dengue distribution, respectively. Average RMSE was 28 for model-1 and 33 for model-2 during cross-validations. ROC area was 0.96 (CI=0.93-0.98) for model-1 and 0.92 (CI=0.88-0.96) for model-2 in 2004-2010. The two models were able to forecast outbreak about 90% accuracy with around 10% false positive in 2011-2012. Monthly and seasonal calendar risk index and weekly time series risk index were established using color scheme to represent risk levels. Significance: Translation of a forecast to dengue risk index permits rapid and clear interpretation of forecast; thus enhances the effectiveness of an early warning. Further studies on feasibility of developing an automated forecast-control-calibration-system using different forecasting methods to allow parallel forecast for comparison and monitoring will enhance sustainability of forecast precision.
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| 2. |
- Hii, Yien Ling, et al.
(författare)
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Forecast of dengue incidence using temperature and rainfall
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2727 .- 1935-2735. ; 6:11, s. e1908-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- INTRODUCTION: An accurate early warning system to predict impending epidemics enhances the effectiveness of preventive measures against dengue fever. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a forecasting model that could predict dengue cases and provide timely early warning in Singapore.METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall over the period 2000-2010. Weather data were modeled using piecewise linear spline functions. We analyzed various lag times between dengue and weather variables to identify the optimal dengue forecasting period. Autoregression, seasonality and trend were considered in the model. We validated the model by forecasting dengue cases for week 1 of 2011 up to week 16 of 2012 using weather data alone. Model selection and validation were based on Akaike's Information Criterion, standardized Root Mean Square Error, and residuals diagnoses. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to analyze the sensitivity of the forecast of epidemics. The optimal period for dengue forecast was 16 weeks. Our model forecasted correctly with errors of 0.3 and 0.32 of the standard deviation of reported cases during the model training and validation periods, respectively. It was sensitive enough to distinguish between outbreak and non-outbreak to a 96% (CI = 93-98%) in 2004-2010 and 98% (CI = 95%-100%) in 2011. The model predicted the outbreak in 2011 accurately with less than 3% possibility of false alarm.SIGNIFICANCE: We have developed a weather-based dengue forecasting model that allows warning 16 weeks in advance of dengue epidemics with high sensitivity and specificity. We demonstrate that models using temperature and rainfall could be simple, precise, and low cost tools for dengue forecasting which could be used to enhance decision making on the timing, scale of vector control operations, and utilization of limited resources.
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| 3. |
- Hii, Yien Ling, et al.
(författare)
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Optimal lead time for dengue forecast
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2727 .- 1935-2735. ; 6:10, s. e1848-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: A dengue early warning system aims to prevent a dengue outbreak by providing an accurate prediction of a rise in dengue cases and sufficient time to allow timely decisions and preventive measures to be taken by local authorities. This study seeks to identify the optimal lead time for warning of dengue cases in Singapore given the duration required by a local authority to curb an outbreak.METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: We developed a Poisson regression model to analyze relative risks of dengue cases as functions of weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall with lag times of 1-5 months using spline functions. We examined the duration of vector control and cluster management in dengue clusters > = 10 cases from 2000 to 2010 and used the information as an indicative window of the time required to mitigate an outbreak. Finally, we assessed the gap between forecast and successful control to determine the optimal timing for issuing an early warning in the study area. Our findings show that increasing weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall precede risks of increasing dengue cases by 4-20 and 8-20 weeks, respectively. These lag times provided a forecast window of 1-5 months based on the observed weather data. Based on previous vector control operations, the time needed to curb dengue outbreaks ranged from 1-3 months with a median duration of 2 months. Thus, a dengue early warning forecast given 3 months ahead of the onset of a probable epidemic would give local authorities sufficient time to mitigate an outbreak.CONCLUSIONS: Optimal timing of a dengue forecast increases the functional value of an early warning system and enhances cost-effectiveness of vector control operations in response to forecasted risks. We emphasize the importance of considering the forecast-mitigation gaps in respective study areas when developing a dengue forecasting model.
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| 4. |
- Ahmed, Syed Masud, et al.
(författare)
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Clustering of chronic non-communicable disease risk factors among selected Asian populations : levels and determinants
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 2:1, s. 68-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The major chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) operate through a cluster of common risk factors, whose presence or absence determines not only the occurrence and severity of the disease, but also informs treatment approaches. Primary prevention based on mitigation of these common risk factors through population-based programmes is the most cost-effective approach to contain the emerging epidemic of chronic NCDs.OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to explore the extent of risk factors clustering for the major chronic NCDs and its determinants in nineINDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites of five Asian countries. DESIGN: Data originated from a multi-site chronic NCD risk factor prevalence survey conducted in 2005. This cross-sectional survey used a standardised questionnaire developed by the WHO to collect core data on common risk factors such as tobacco use, intake of fruits and vegetables, physical inactivity, blood pressure levels, and body mass index. Respondents included randomly selected sample of adults (25-64 years) living in nine rural HDSS sites in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.RESULTS: Findings revealed a substantial proportion (>70%) of these largely rural populations having three or more risk factors for chronic NCDs. Chronic NCD risk factors clustering was associated with increasing age, being male, and higher educational achievements. Differences were noted among the different sites, both between and within country.CONCLUSIONS: Since there is an extensive clustering of risk factors for the chronic NCDs in the populations studied, the interventions also need to be based on a comprehensive approach rather than on a single factor to forestall its cumulative effects which occur over time. This can work best if it is integrated within the primary health care system and the HDSS can be an invaluable epidemiological resource in this endeavor.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Arokiasamy, Perianayagam, et al.
(författare)
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Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases in 6 Low-and Middle-Income Countries : Findings From Wave 1 of the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE)
- 2017
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Ingår i: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 185:6, s. 414-428
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we examine patterns of self-reported diagnosis of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and prevalences of algorithm/measured test-based, undiagnosed, and untreated NCDs in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. Nationally representative samples of older adults aged >= 50 years were analyzed from wave 1 of the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (2007-2010; n = 34,149). Analyses focused on 6 conditions: angina, arthritis, asthma, chronic lung disease, depression, and hypertension. Outcomes for these NCDs were: 1) self-reported disease, 2) algorithm/measured test-based disease, 3) undiagnosed disease, and 4) untreated disease. Algorithm/measured test-based prevalence of NCDs was much higher than self-reported prevalence in all 6 countries, indicating underestimation of NCD prevalence in low-and middle-income countries. Undiagnosed prevalence of NCDs was highest for hypertension, ranging from 19.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 18.1, 21.3) in India to 49.6% (95% CI: 46.2, 53.0) in South Africa. The proportion untreated among all diseases was highest for depression, ranging from 69.5% (95% CI: 57.1, 81.9) in South Africa to 93.2% (95% CI: 90.1, 95.7) in India. Higher levels of education and wealth significantly reduced the odds of an undiagnosed condition and untreated morbidity. A high prevalence of undiagnosed NCDs and an even higher proportion of untreated NCDs highlights the inadequacies in diagnosis and management of NCDs in local health-care systems.
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| 7. |
- Ashraf, Ali, et al.
(författare)
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Self-reported use of tobacco products in nine rural INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Asia
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 2, s. 19-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is the most preventable cause of premature death and disability. Even though tobacco use is common in many Asian countries, reliable and comparable data on the burden imposed by tobacco use in this region are sparse, and surveillance systems to track trends are in their infancy.OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the prevalence of tobacco use and its associated factors in nine selected rural sites in five Asian countries.METHODS: Tobacco use among 9,208 men and 9,221 women aged 25-64 years in nine Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites in five Asian countries of the INDEPTH Network were examined in 2005 as part of a broader survey of the major chronic non-communicable disease risk factors. All sites used a standardised protocol based on the WHO STEPS approach to risk factor surveillance; expanded questions of local relevance, including chewing tobacco, were also included. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess demographic factors associated with tobacco use.RESULTS: Tobacco use, whether smoked or chewed, was common across all sites with some notable variations. More than 50% of men smoked daily; this applied to almost all age groups. Few women smoked daily in any of the sites. However, women were more likely to chew tobacco than men in all sites except Vadu in India. Tobacco use in men began in late adolescence in most of the sites and the number of cigarettes smoked daily ranged from three to 15. Use of both forms of tobacco, smoked and chewed, was associated with age, gender and education. Men were more likely to smoke compared to women, smoking increased with age in the four sites in Bangladesh but not in other sites and with low level of education in all the sites.CONCLUSION: The prevalence of tobacco use, regardless of the type of tobacco, was high among men in all of these rural populations with tobacco use started during adolescence in all HDSS sites. Innovative communication strategies for behaviour change targeting adolescents in schools and adult men and women at work or at home, may create a mass awareness about adverse health consequences of tobacco smoking or chewing tobacco. Such efforts, to be effective, however, need to be supported by strong legislation and leadership. Only four of the five countries involved in this multi-site study have ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, and even where it has been ratified, implementation is uneven.
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| 8. |
- Bengtsson, Anna, 1973-, et al.
(författare)
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The beneficial effect over 3 years by pictorial information to patients and their physician about subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular risk : results from the VIPVIZA randomized clinical trial
- 2021
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Ingår i: American Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Elsevier. - 2666-6677. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: Non-adherence to guidelines and preventive measures is a major challenge, particularly so to ob- tain long-term adherence to lifestyle changes and recommended medication. The objective was to investigate if pictorial information regarding subclinical carotid atherosclerosis provided to individuals and physicians gave sustained effects on cardiovascular risk beyond the previously reported effect after 1 year and up to 3 years. Methods: A Prospective Randomized Open Blinded End-point (PROBE) trial. Within a CVD prevention program in Västerbotten County, Sweden, 3532 healthy individuals aged 40, 50 or 60 years were enrolled and 1:1 ran- domized to intervention ( n = 1749; pictorial information with additional prevention materials to participants and physicians) or control group ( n = 1783; no pictorial information to participants and physicians). Preventive measures were managed within primary care. Participants were investigated at baseline during 2013–2016 and at follow-up after 1 and 3 years. Results: A beneficial effect on cardiovascular risk was observed at 3-year follow-up; Framingham Risk Score (FRS) was 13.38 for the intervention group and 14.08 for the control group ( p = 0.047) and SCORE was 1.69 vs. 1.82 ( p = 0.022). The effect observed at 1-year was sustained over 3 years after adjustment for sex and education and more pronounced among participants with a severe atherosclerotic picture at baseline.Conclusions: This study provides evidence of sustained beneficial effects on the adherence to prevention guidelines over 3 years of pictorial information about subclinical carotid atherosclerosis, resulting in lower cardiovascular risk regardless of sex and educational level. Direct visualization of the underlying still subclinical atherosclerotic disease, rather than just indirect information about risk factors and statistical risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke and death, is one way to tackle the problem of non-adherence to prevention of cardiovascular diseases.
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| 9. |
- Berger, Finja, et al.
(författare)
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The moderating effect of mental health and health insurance ownership on the relationships between physical multimorbidity and healthcare utilisation and catastrophic health expenditure in India
- 2024
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Ingår i: BMC GERIATRICS. - 1471-2318. ; 24:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundThe current demographic transition has resulted in the growth of the older population in India, a population group which has a higher chance of being affected by multimorbidity and its subsequent healthcare and economic consequences. However, little attention has been paid to the dual effect of mental health conditions and physical multimorbidity in India. The present study, therefore, aimed to analyse the moderating effects of mental health and health insurance ownership in the association between physical multimorbidity and healthcare utilisation and catastrophic health expenditure (CHE).MethodsWe analysed the Longitudinal Aging Study in India, wave 1 (2017-2018). We determined physical multimorbidity by assessing the number of physical conditions. We built multivariable logistic regression models to determine the moderating effect of mental health and health insurance ownership in the association between the number of physical conditions and healthcare utilisation and CHE. Wald tests were used to evaluate if the estimated effects differ across groups defined by the moderating variables.ResultsOverall, around one-quarter of adults aged 45 and above had physical multimorbidity, one-third had a mental health condition and 20.5% owned health insurance. Irrespective of having a mental condition and health insurance, physical multimorbidity was associated with increased utilisation of healthcare and CHE. Having an additional mental condition strengthened the adverse effect of physical multimorbidity on increased inpatient service use and experience of CHE. Having health insurance, on the other hand, attenuated the effect of experiencing CHE, indicating a protective effect.ConclusionsThe coexistence of mental health conditions in people with physical multimorbidity increases the demands of healthcare service utilisation and can lead to CHE. The findings point to the need for multidisciplinary interventions for individuals with physical multimorbidity, ensuring their mental health needs are also addressed. Our results urge enhancing health insurance schemes for individuals with mental and physical multimorbidity.
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| 10. |
- Blomstedt, Yulia, et al.
(författare)
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Flawed conclusions on the Vasterbotten Intervention Program by San Sebastian et .al
- 2019
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Ingår i: BMC Public Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2458. ; 19:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An evaluation of Vasterbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) was recently conducted by San Sebastian et al. (BMC Public Health 19:202, 2019). Evaluation of health care interventions of this kind require 1) an understanding of both the design and the nature of the intervention, 2) correct definition of the target population, and 3) careful choice of the appropriate evaluation method. In this correspondence, we review the approach used by San Sebastian et al. as relates to these three criteria. Within this framework, we suggest important explanations for why the conclusions drawn by these authors contradict a large body of research on the effectiveness of the VIP.
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