| 1. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 4. |
- Ngo, Hai Hoang Tuan, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of light-touch intervention and associated factors to microbial contamination at small-scale pig slaughterhouses and traditional pork shops in Vietnam
- 2023
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Ingår i: International Journal of Food Microbiology. - : Elsevier. - 0168-1605 .- 1879-3460. ; 406
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Traditional pork value chains dominate the production and distribution of pork in Vietnam; however, the high level of microbiological contamination in pork may increase the risk of food-borne disease for consumers. There is limited evidence about how to feasibly and scalably reduce microbial contamination in pork sold in traditional markets. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of light-touch interventions for changing worker behaviour in small-scale slaughterhouses and vendors at traditional pork shops, as well as to identify risk factors for pork contamination. The intervention packages consisted of providing hygiene tools and delivering a food safety training which had been designed in a participatory way and covered 10 small-scale slaughterhouses and 29 pork shops. Pig carcasses, retailed pork, contact surfaces, and hands were sampled to measure the total bacterial count (TBC) and Salmonella contamination before, three and six weeks after the intervention, and trainee practices were observed at the same time. Linear and generalized linear mixed effects models were constructed to identify risk factors for TBC and Salmonella contamination at the slaughterhouses and pork shops. The interventions at slaughterhouses and pork shops both showed a slight reduction of TBC contamination in pig carcasses and Salmonella prevalence in retailed pork, while the TBC in retailed pork decreased only marginally. For slaughterhouses, the regression model indicated that smoking or eating during slaughtering (indicating poor hygienic practices) was associated with TBC increasing, while cleaning floors and wearing boots reduced TBC contamination. For pork shops, using rough materials (cardboard or wood) to display pork was the only factor increasing TBC contamination in pork, whereas cleaning knives was associated with lower TBC. Besides, the presence of supporters and wearing aprons reduced the probability of Salmonella contamination in pork. The findings highlight the effectiveness of light-touch interventions in reducing microbial contamination in pig carcasses at small-scale slaughterhouses and pork at traditional shops over the study period.
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| 5. |
- Ngo, Hoang Tuan Hai, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of a light-touch intervention to reduce microbial contamination at small-scale pig slaughterhouses and traditional pork shops in Vietnam
- 2023
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Ingår i: International Journal of Food Microbiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-1605 .- 1879-3460. ; 406
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Traditional pork value chains dominate the production and distribution of pork in Vietnam; however, there high microbiological contamination of pork may lead to health risks. There is limited evidence about how to sustainably and scalably reduce microbial contamination in pork sold in traditional markets. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of light-touch interventions for changing worker behaviour in small-scale slaughterhouses and retailers at traditional pork shops, as well as to identify risk factors for pork contamination. The intervention packages consisted of providing hygiene tools and delivering a food safety training which had been designed in a participatory way and covered 10 small-scale slaughterhouses and 29 pork shops. Pig carcasses, retailed pork, contact surfaces, and hands were sampled to measure the total bacterial count (TBC) and Salmonella contamination and trainee practices were observed before, three and six weeks after the intervention. Linear and generalized linear mixed effects models were constructed to identify risk factors for TBC and Salmonella contamination at the slaughterhouses and pork shops. Intervention results showed a slight reduction of TBC contamination in pig carcasses from 4.46 to 4.23 log10 CFU/cm2 (p = 0.09) and Salmonella prevalence in retailed pork (reduction from 52% to 24% detection, p = 0.08), while the TBC in retailed pork decreased only marginally (5.47 vs. 5.36 log10 CFU/g, p = 0.23). For slaughterhouses, the regression model indicated that smoking or eating during slaughtering was a risk factor, associated with TBC increasing by 0.60 log10 CFU/g (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12 to 0.96, p =0.02), while cleaning floors and wearing boots reduced TBC contamination with 0.53 log10 CFU/g (CI: –0.83 to 0.01, p = 0.03) and 1.04 log10 CFU/g (CI: –1.50 to –0.26, p = 0.03), respectively. For pork shops, using rough materials (cardboard or wood) to display pork was the only factor increasing TBC contamination in pork with 0.57 log10 CFU/g (CI: 0.22 to 0.91, p < 0.001), whereas wearing aprons was associated with lower TBC, with 0.45 log10 CFU/g (CI: –0.79 to –0.12, p = 0.02), and Salmonella contamination in pork (odds ratio (OR) = 0.13, CI: 0.02 to 0.72, p = 0.03). The findings highlight the effectiveness of light-touch interventions in reducing microbial contamination in pig carcasses and pork over the study period.
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| 6. |
- Le, Trang Thi-Huyen, et al.
(författare)
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Food safety knowledge, needed and trusted information of pork consumers in different retail types in Northern Vietnam
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2571-581X. ; 6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Food safety is an important public health concern globally. Risk communication is one of crucial element to manage food safety. While current food safety studies have focused on contamination of hazards or risk factors, limited research exists on consumer concerns, knowledge and perception about the actual risk food poses to their health. This study aimed to assess and compare the knowledge and perceptions regarding food safety, and the information needed and trusted by pork consumers in Northern Vietnam.Methods: A total of 225 consumers recruited from three different market types: modern urban, traditional urban and traditional rural, were interviewed using a questionnaire between November to December 2019.Results: The majority of participants (81.8%) were female and consumers interviewed at modern urban retail were younger than those interviewed at traditional retail settings (p < 0.01). Sixty-five percent of participants across the three retail types agreed that microbes were the most common hazards which can make them sick, but the adverse health effect due to chemical hazards was ranked higher than that of biological hazards. Most participants often received food safety information that was about animal diseases (such as African swine fever most recently), chemical contamination and the unknown origin of food rather than about food poisoning and measures to prevent it. Food safety messages from television and professional experts were the most trusted sources and consumer preference was for information about the origin of food (traceability) and how to choose safe food. Participants were willing to receive food safety information daily to weekly. A lack of perception and awareness about animal welfare related to pig farming or slaughtering was reported by most respondents (84.3%).Discussion: These findings provide insight on Vietnamese consumer knowledge gaps, information demand and communication channels for food safety, so that risk communicators and managers can implement better food safety awareness campaigns and communication to consumers.
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| 7. |
- Berg, Håkan, et al.
(författare)
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An ecological economic comparison between integrated rice-fish farming and rice monocultures with low and high dikes in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam
- 2023
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Ingår i: Ambio. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 52:9, s. 1462-1474
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study makes an ecological economic comparison between three different rice farming strategies in the Mekong Delta. Interviews were made with 30 farmers with two crops of rice and low dikes (2RLd), 30 farmers with three crops of rice and high dikes (3RHd) and 18 farmers with two crops of rice and one crop of fish (2RF). 2RF farmers had the highest annual net income and benefit cost ratio, because of low production costs and high yields of rice and fish. 2RLd farmers had the lowest annual net income. 3RHd had the highest annual rice yield, but also used the highest amount of rice seeds and agrochemicals, generating the lowest benefit cost ratio. Most farmers (70%) preferred two crops because of a higher production efficiency. High dikes and frequent use of pesticides and fertilizers were seen to decrease the water and rice quality, connectivity and biodiversity in farms with three crops. It is concluded that rice farming with two crops, and especially if integrated with fish and applying IPM, provides a sustainable alternative to rice farming with three crops and high dikes, because it makes use of the high connectivity within the rice-field ecosystem for an efficient production of healthy food through increased recycling of nutrients and natural pest control mechanisms.
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| 8. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2021
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 20:10, s. 795-820
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% [10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% [5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates increased by 15.0% (12.0-18.0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3.6 (3.5-3.8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3.7 (3.5-3.9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62.4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7.63 million [6.57-8.96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27.9% (3.41 million [2.97-3.91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9.7% (1.18 million [1.01-1.39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79.6 million [67.7-90.8] DALYs or 55.5% [48.2-62.0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34.9 million [22.3-48.6] DALYs or 24.3% [15.7-33.2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28.9 million [19.8-41.5] DALYs or 20.2% [13.8-29.1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28.7 million [23.4-33.4] DALYs or 20.1% [16.6-23.0]), and smoking (25.3 million [22.6-28.2] DALYs or 17.6% [16.4-19.0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.
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| 9. |
- Micah, Angela E., et al.
(författare)
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Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10308, s. 1317-1343
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 10. |
- Ngo, Hoang Tuan Hai, et al.
(författare)
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The cost-benefit analysis of a light-touch intervention to improve the safety of pork in Vietnam : the case of salmonellosis
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Salmonellosis is a common food-borne disease in low and middle-income countries but there is not much cost-effective program to reduce its burden, even in developed countries. This study aims to estimate the cost of salmonellosis in Vietnam and analyse the net benefit of light-touch intervention at small-scale pork shop in reducing the burden of salmonellosis. The cost of light-touch intervention cost at 29 pork shops was collected as well as the prevalence of salmonellosis severity in Hung Yen and Thai Nguyen. The Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to estimate the cost of salmonellosis, cost and benefit pork sellers and consumers. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influenced factors to the net benefit of both two stakeholders. The cost of salmonellosis in Vietnam was calculated to be 345,770,000 VND per case (95% CI: 52,151 – 8,533,360,000). The total net benefit of the light-touch intervention was 27,900,000 VND per year (95% CI: -43,000 – 117,700,000) with 59.6% of positive cases. Most of this benefit was transferred to the consumers: 27,700,000 VND per year (95% CI: -550,000 – 117,520,000) with 61.2% of cases being positive while the figure of pork seller was 210,000 VND per year (95% CI: -39,000 – 660,000) with 93.2% positive cases. The pork seller was mostly profitable due to implementing the intervention while the consumer’s benefit varied strongly following the change of salmonellosis probability and the cost of salmonellosis
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