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- Eriksson, Joel, et al.
(författare)
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Limited Clinical Utility of a Genetic Risk Score for the Prediction of Fracture Risk in Elderly Subjects
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - : Wiley. - 1523-4681 .- 0884-0431. ; 30:1, s. 184-194
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is important to identify the patients at highest risk of fractures. A recent large-scale meta-analysis identified 63 autosomal single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with bone mineral density (BMD), of which 16 were also associated with fracture risk. Based on these findings, two genetic risk scores (GRS63 and GRS16) were developed. Our aim was to determine the clinical usefulness of these GRSs for the prediction of BMD, BMD change, and fracture risk in elderly subjects. We studied two male (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study [MrOS] US, MrOS Sweden) and one female (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF]) large prospective cohorts of older subjects, looking at BMD, BMD change, and radiographically and/or medically confirmed incident fractures (8067 subjects, 2185 incident nonvertebral or vertebral fractures). GRS63 was associated with BMD (3% of the variation explained) but not with BMD change. Both GRS63 and GRS16 were associated with fractures. After BMD adjustment, the effect sizes for these associations were substantially reduced. Similar results were found using an unweighted GRS63 and an unweighted GRS16 compared with those found using the corresponding weighted risk scores. Only minor improvements in C-statistics (AUC) for fractures were found when the GRSs were added to a base model (age, weight, and height), and no significant improvements in C-statistics were found when they were added to a model further adjusted for BMD. Net reclassification improvements with the addition of the GRSs to a base model were modest and substantially attenuated in BMD-adjusted models. GRS63 is associated with BMD, but not BMD change, suggesting that the genetic determinants of BMD differ from those of BMD change. When BMD is known, the clinical utility of the two GRSs for fracture prediction is limited in elderly subjects. (c) 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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| 2. |
- Zheng, Hou-Feng, et al.
(författare)
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Whole-genome sequencing identifies EN1 as a determinant of bone density and fracture
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 526:7571, s. 112-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The extent to which low-frequency (minor allele frequency (MAF) between 1-5%) and rare (MAF <= 1%) variants contribute to complex traits and disease in the general population is mainly unknown. Bone mineral density (BMD) is highly heritable, a major predictor of osteoporotic fractures, and has been previously associated with common genetic variants(1-8), as well as rare, population specific, coding variants(9). Here we identify novel non-coding genetic variants with large effects on BMD (n(total) = 53,236) and fracture (n(total) = 508,253) in individuals of European ancestry from the general population. Associations for BMD were derived from whole-genome sequencing (n = 2,882 from UK10K (ref. 10); a population-based genome sequencing consortium), whole-exome sequencing (n = 3,549), deep imputation of genotyped samples using a combined UK10K/1000 Genomes reference panel (n = 26,534), and de novo replication genotyping (n = 20,271). We identified a low-frequency non-coding variant near a novel locus, EN1, with an effect size fourfold larger than the mean of previously reported common variants for lumbar spine BMD8 (rs11692564(T), MAF51.6%, replication effect size510.20 s.d., P-meta = 2 x 10(-14)), which was also associated with a decreased risk of fracture (odds ratio = 0.85; P = 2 x 10(-11); ncases = 98,742 and ncontrols = 409,511). Using an En1cre/flox mouse model, we observed that conditional loss of En1 results in low bone mass, probably as a consequence of high bone turnover. We also identified a novel low frequency non-coding variant with large effects on BMD near WNT16 (rs148771817(T), MAF = 1.2%, replication effect size +10.41 s.d., P-meta = 1 x 10(-11)). In general, there was an excess of association signals arising from deleterious coding and conserved non-coding variants. These findings provide evidence that low-frequency non-coding variants have large effects on BMD and fracture, thereby providing rationale for whole-genome sequencing and improved imputation reference panels to study the genetic architecture of complex traits and disease in the general population.
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