| 1. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Elks, Cathy E., et al.
(författare)
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Age at Menarche and Type 2 Diabetes Risk The EPIC-InterAct study
- 2013
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Ingår i: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1935-5548 .- 0149-5992. ; 36:11, s. 3526-3534
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVEYounger age at menarche, a marker of pubertal timing in girls, is associated with higher risk of later type 2 diabetes. We aimed to confirm this association and to examine whether it is explained by adiposity.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSThe prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study consists of 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from 26 research centers across eight European countries. We tested the association between age at menarche and incident type 2 diabetes using Prentice-weighted Cox regression in 15,168 women (n = 5,995 cases). Models were adjusted in a sequential manner for potential confounding and mediating factors, including adult BMI.RESULTSMean menarcheal age ranged from 12.6 to 13.6 years across InterAct countries. Each year later menarche was associated with 0.32 kg/m(2) lower adult BMI. Women in the earliest menarche quintile (8-11 years, n = 2,418) had 70% higher incidence of type 2 diabetes compared with those in the middle quintile (13 years, n = 3,634), adjusting for age at recruitment, research center, and a range of lifestyle and reproductive factors (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.49-1.94; P < 0.001). Adjustment for BMI partially attenuated this association (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.18-1.71; P < 0.001). Later menarche beyond the median age was not protective against type 2 diabetes.CONCLUSIONSWomen with history of early menarche have higher risk of type 2 diabetes in adulthood. Less than half of this association appears to be mediated by higher adult BMI, suggesting that early pubertal development also may directly increase type 2 diabetes risk.
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| 3. |
- Lotta, Luca A., et al.
(författare)
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Integrative genomic analysis implicates limited peripheral adipose storage capacity in the pathogenesis of human insulin resistance
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 49:1, s. 17-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Insulin resistance is a key mediator of obesity-related cardiometabolic disease, yet the mechanisms underlying this link remain obscure. Using an integrative genomic approach, we identify 53 genomic regions associated with insulin resistance phenotypes (higher fasting insulin levels adjusted for BMI, lower HDL cholesterol levels and higher triglyceride levels) and provide evidence that their link with higher cardiometabolic risk is underpinned by an association with lower adipose mass in peripheral compartments. Using these 53 loci, we show a polygenic contribution to familial partial lipodystrophy type 1, a severe form of insulin resistance, and highlight shared molecular mechanisms in common/mild and rare/severe insulin resistance. Population-level genetic analyses combined with experiments in cellular models implicate CCDC92, DNAH10 and L3MBTL3 as previously unrecognized molecules influencing adipocyte differentiation. Our findings support the notion that limited storage capacity of peripheral adipose tissue is an important etiological component in insulin-resistant cardiometabolic disease and highlight genes and mechanisms underpinning this link.
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| 4. |
- Sluijs, Ivonne, et al.
(författare)
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A Mendelian randomization study of circulating uric acid and type 2 diabetes.
- 2015
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Ingår i: Diabetes. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1939-327X .- 0012-1797. ; 64:8, s. 3028-3036
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We aimed to investigate the causal effect of circulating uric acid concentrations on type 2 diabetes risk. A Mendelian randomization study was performed using a genetic score with 24 uric acid associated loci. We used data of the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study, comprising 24,265 individuals of European ancestry from eight European countries. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 10 (4) years, 10,576 verified incident type 2 diabetes cases were ascertained. Higher uric acid associated with higher diabetes risk following adjustment for confounders, with a HR of 1.20 (95%CI: 1.11,1.30) per 59.48 µmol/L (1 mg/dL) uric acid. The genetic score raised uric acid by 17 µmol/L (95%CI: 15,18) per SD increase, and explained 4% of uric acid variation. Using the genetic score to estimate the unconfounded effect found that a 59.48 µmol/L higher uric acid concentration did not have a causal effect on diabetes (HR 1.01, 95%CI: 0.87,1.16). Including data from DIAGRAM consortium, increasing our dataset to 41,508 diabetes cases, the summary OR estimate was 0.99 (95%CI: 0.92, 1.06). In conclusion, our study does not support a causal effect of circulating uric acid on diabetes risk. Uric acid lowering therapies may therefore not be beneficial in reducing diabetes risk.
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| 5. |
- Langenberg, Claudia, et al.
(författare)
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Gene-Lifestyle Interaction and Type 2 Diabetes: The EPIC InterAct Case-Cohort Study.
- 2014
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1676 .- 1549-1277. ; 11:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has progressed rapidly, but the interactions between common genetic variants and lifestyle risk factors have not been systematically investigated in studies with adequate statistical power. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined effects of genetic and lifestyle factors on risk of T2D in order to inform strategies for prevention.
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| 6. |
- Langenberg, Claudia, et al.
(författare)
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Long-Term Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes and Measures of Overall and Regional Obesity: The EPIC-InterAct Case-Cohort Study
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - San Francisco : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1676 .- 1549-1277. ; 9:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). Methods and Findings: The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (< 94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI >= 35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (> 102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). Conclusions: WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.
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| 7. |
- Lassale, Camille, et al.
(författare)
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Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72-0.79) to 0.88 (0.84-0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83) to 0.84 (0.76-0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) to 0.91 (0.85-0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.
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| 8. |
- Li, Sherly X., et al.
(författare)
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Interaction between genes and macronutrient intake on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes : systematic review and findings from European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-InterAct
- 2017
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Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : American society for nutrition. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 106:1, s. 263-275
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Gene-diet interactions have been reported to contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, to our knowledge, few examples have been consistently replicated to date. Objective: We aimed to identify existing evidence for genemacronutrient interactions and T2D and to examine the reported interactions in a large-scale study. Design: We systematically reviewed studies reporting genemacronutrient interactions and T2D. We searched the MEDLINE, Human Genome Epidemiology Network, and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform electronic databases to identify studies published up to October 2015. Eligibility criteria included assessment of macronutrient quantity (e.g., total carbohydrate) or indicators of quality (e. g., dietary fiber) by use of self-report or objective biomarkers of intake. Interactions identified in the review were subsequently examined in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-InterAct case-cohort study (n = 21,148, with 9403 T2D cases; 8 European countries). Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to estimate countryspecific HRs, 95% CIs, and P-interaction values, which were then pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. A primary model was fitted by using the same covariates as reported in the published studies, and a second model adjusted for additional covariates and estimated the effects of isocaloric macronutrient substitution. Results: Thirteen observational studies met the eligibility criteria (n < 1700 cases). Eight unique interactions were reported to be significant between macronutrients [carbohydrate, fat, saturated fat, dietary fiber, and glycemic load derived from self-report of dietary intake and circulating n-3 (v-3) polyunsaturated fatty acids] and genetic variants in or near transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2), gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor (GIPR), caveolin 2 (CAV2), and peptidase D (PEPD) (P-interaction, 0.05). We found no evidence of interaction when we tried to replicate previously reported interactions. In addition, no interactions were detected in models with additional covariates. Conclusions: Eight gene-macronutrient interactions were identified for the risk of T2D from the literature. These interactions were not replicated in the EPIC-InterAct study, which mirrored the analyses undertaken in the original reports. Our findings highlight the importance of independent replication of reported interactions.
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| 9. |
- Murphy, Neil, et al.
(författare)
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Dietary fibre intake and risks of Cancers of the Colon and Rectum in the European prospective investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - San Francisco : Public Library of Science. - 1932-6203. ; 7:6, s. e39361-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Earlier analyses within the EPIC study showed that dietary fibre intake was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk, but results from some large cohort studies do not support this finding. We explored whether the association remained after longer follow-up with a near threefold increase in colorectal cancer cases, and if the association varied by gender and tumour location.Methodology/Principal Findings: After a mean follow-up of 11.0 years, 4,517 incident cases of colorectal cancer were documented. Total, cereal, fruit, and vegetable fibre intakes were estimated from dietary questionnaires at baseline. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models stratified by age, sex, and centre, and adjusted for total energy intake, body mass index, physical activity, smoking, education, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, oral contraceptive use, and intakes of alcohol, folate, red and processed meats, and calcium. After multivariable adjustments, total dietary fibre was inversely associated with colorectal cancer (HR per 10 g/day increase in fibre 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79-0.96). Similar linear associations were observed for colon and rectal cancers. The association between total dietary fibre and risk of colorectal cancer risk did not differ by age, sex, or anthropometric, lifestyle, and dietary variables. Fibre from cereals and fibre from fruit and vegetables were similarly associated with colon cancer; but for rectal cancer, the inverse association was only evident for fibre from cereals.Conclusions/Significance: Our results strengthen the evidence for the role of high dietary fibre intake in colorectal cancer prevention.
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| 10. |
- Newton-Cheh, Christopher, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study identifies eight loci associated with blood pressure
- 2009
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 41:6, s. 666-676
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Elevated blood pressure is a common, heritable cause of cardiovascular disease worldwide. To date, identification of common genetic variants influencing blood pressure has proven challenging. We tested 2.5 million genotyped and imputed SNPs for association with systolic and diastolic blood pressure in 34,433 subjects of European ancestry from the Global BPgen consortium and followed up findings with direct genotyping (N <= 71,225 European ancestry, N <= 12,889 Indian Asian ancestry) and in silico comparison (CHARGE consortium, N 29,136). We identified association between systolic or diastolic blood pressure and common variants in eight regions near the CYP17A1 (P = 7 x 10(-24)), CYP1A2 (P = 1 x 10(-23)), FGF5 (P = 1 x 10(-21)), SH2B3 (P = 3 x 10(-18)), MTHFR (P = 2 x 10(-13)), c10orf107 (P = 1 x 10(-9)), ZNF652 (P = 5 x 10(-9)) and PLCD3 (P = 1 x 10(-8)) genes. All variants associated with continuous blood pressure were associated with dichotomous hypertension. These associations between common variants and blood pressure and hypertension offer mechanistic insights into the regulation of blood pressure and may point to novel targets for interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease.
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