| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Nyandwi, Alypio, et al.
(författare)
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Predictors of physical violence against children in Rwanda : findings from a National Cross-Sectional Survey
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMC Public Health. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1471-2458. ; 22:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: To address the challenges of limited national data on the prevalence and nature of violence experienced by children, Rwanda conducted, in 2015–2016, the first National Survey on Violence among female and male children and youth aged 13–24 years. To further contribute to these efforts to fill existing data gaps, we used the Rwanda survey data to assess the prevalence and predictors of physical violence (PV) in children aged 13–17.Methods: A nationally representative sample of 618 male and 492 female children were analysed. Nationally representative weighted descriptive statistics were used to analyse the prevalence of PV self-reported by children, and logistic regression models were applied to investigate its predictors.Results: Sixty percent of all children, including 36.53% of male and 23.38% of female children, reported having experienced any form of PV in their lifetime. Additionally, 21.81% of male children and 12.73% of female children reported experiences of PV within twelve months before the survey date. Older children (OR: 0.53 [0.40–0.72]), female children (OR: 0.43 [0.31–0.58]), and children not attending school (OR: 0.48 [0.31–0.73]) were less likely to be physically abused. However, sexually active children (OR: 1.66 [1.05–2.63]), children in households from the middle wealth quintile (OR: 1.63 [1.08–2.47]), children living in a larger family (OR: 1.55 [1.07–2.26]), and children who reported not feel close to both biological parents (OR: 2.14 [1.31–3.49]) had increased odds of reporting physical violence.Conclusion: Higher rates of PV in children attending school were the key finding. There is an urgent need to design and implement particular national interventions to prevent and reduce the incidence of PV in schools in Rwanda. PV was also associated with poor parent-child relations. Parents and other adult caregivers should be sensitised to the consequences of PV on children and be urged to adopt positive parenting practices.
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| 4. |
- Nyandwi, Alypio, et al.
(författare)
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Sexual violence against children in Rwanda : prevalence and associated factors
- 2022
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Ingår i: Rwanda Journal of Medicine and Health Sciences. - : University of Rwanda College of Medicine and Health Sciences. - 2616-9819 .- 2616-9827. ; 5:3, s. 302-314
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Information and data on the burden and factors associated with violence against children are critical in designing and implementing preventive strategies and interventions. This study aimed to examine patterns of the prevalence of sexual violence (SV) against children in Rwanda and investigate associated factors to contribute to the knowledge about violence against children in Rwanda.Methods: A sample of 1,110 children aged 13-17 years from a cross-sectional national survey done in Rwanda in 2015 was analysed. Weighted descriptive statistics were applied to describe the prevalence of SV against children, and weighted logistic regression allowed us to investigate factors associated with it.Results: Over eight percent (8.4%) of all children, including about three percent (2.8%) of male children and around five percent (5.6%) of female children, reported having experienced SV within the last twelve months. Being a female child, having a romantic partner, and not attending school were some factors associated with SV against children in Rwanda.Conclusion: Female children reported more SV than male children. Factors associated with sexual violence pertained to the child's characteristics, family or household background characteristics, and community relations. The study findings call for an urgent need to prevent SV against children through awareness raising about it amongst children and the general public.
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