| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Lööf, Hans, 1956-, et al.
(författare)
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Technical Change and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Swedish Manufacturing and Service Industries
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper presents alternative specifications of the production functions of a large panel of Swedish firms for the period 1992-2000. The period can be characterized as a transition when long-run productivity growth in the Swedish economy improved from being among the weakest to one of the strongest within the OECD. In order to present a detailed exploration of this dramatic change, the time trend and general index models are applied to estimate total factor productivity (TFP) growth, rate of technical change and returns to scale. The models are extended to allow for firm-specific as well as time-varying technical change. The parametric TFP measures are also compared with the non-parametric Solow residual, and several hypotheses are tested to explain the growth patterns in the Swedish economy. It is found that the improved growth rate, initially starting in large exporting manufacturing firms, after a deep economic crisis at the beginning of the 1990s, spilled over to the rest of the economy, both manufacturing and services.
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| 3. |
- Lööf, Hans, 1956-, et al.
(författare)
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The Icelandic Economy : a victim of the financial crisis or simply inefficient?
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Iceland, one of the smallest European economies, was hit severely by the 2008-financial crisis. This paper uses a firm-level Community Innovation Survey (CIS) data set to consider the economy in the period preceding the collapse of its financial system. We examine the linkage between the crisis and innovativeness from the perspective of technical efficiency by means of the Data Envelopment Analysis of 204 randomly selected firms. The results suggest that a substantial fraction of the Icelandic firms can be classified as non-efficient in their production process. The production scale of many manufacturing firms is too small to be considered technically efficient, while services firms typically use excessive resources in their production process. A remarkably weak performance in transforming R&D and labor efforts into successful innovations is observed. Based on the empirical results, suitable policy implications are suggested to remedy the inoptimal production structure and help economic recovery.
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| 4. |
- Lööf, Hans, 1956-, et al.
(författare)
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Total Factor Productivity of Korean Manufacturing Industries : Comparison of Competing Models with Firm-Level Data
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper presents the parametric estimation of the rates of technical change and total factor productivity (TFP) growth of 7,462 Korean manufacturing firms for the period 1987 to 2007. Two alternative formulations of technical change measured by the time trend and the general index approaches are estimated with panel data models assuming flexible functional forms. Several extensions of each approach are also considered and their benefits and limitations are discussed. In addition to making estimates of the TFP growth and its decomposition, the paper compares the parametric TFP growth measure with the non-parametric Solow residual serving as a benchmark. Several hypotheses related to technology level, firm sizes, industrial sectors, skill biased technological change and macroeconomic and industrial policies are tested to explain the growth patterns and heterogeneity in technical change, input biases and TFP growth rates. Using second regression analysis, the paper explores the determinants of TFP growth and their policy implications.
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| 5. |
- Jones, Benedict C, et al.
(författare)
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To which world regions does the valence-dominance model of social perception apply?
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 5:1, s. 159-169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past 10 years, Oosterhof and Todorov's valence-dominance model has emerged as the most prominent account of how people evaluate faces on social dimensions. In this model, two dimensions (valence and dominance) underpin social judgements of faces. Because this model has primarily been developed and tested in Western regions, it is unclear whether these findings apply to other regions. We addressed this question by replicating Oosterhof and Todorov's methodology across 11 world regions, 41 countries and 11,570 participants. When we used Oosterhof and Todorov's original analysis strategy, the valence-dominance model generalized across regions. When we used an alternative methodology to allow for correlated dimensions, we observed much less generalization. Collectively, these results suggest that, while the valence-dominance model generalizes very well across regions when dimensions are forced to be orthogonal, regional differences are revealed when we use different extraction methods and correlate and rotate the dimension reduction solution. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: The stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 5 November 2018. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7611443.v1 .
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| 6. |
- Oh, Donghyun, et al.
(författare)
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Technical change and total factor productivity growth for Swedish manufacturing and service industries
- 2012
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Ingår i: Applied Economics. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0003-6846 .- 1466-4283. ; 44:18, s. 2373-2391
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article presents alternative specifications of the production functions of a large panel of Swedish firms for the period 1992 to 2000. The period can be characterized as a transition when long-run productivity growth in the Swedish economy improved from being among the weakest to one of the strongest within the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In order to present a detailed exploration of this dramatic change, the time trend and general index models are applied to estimate Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth, rate of technical change and returns to scale. The models are extended to allow for firm specific as well as time-varying technical change. The parametric TFP measures are also compared with the nonparametric Solow residual, and several hypotheses are tested to explain the growth patterns in the Swedish economy. It is found that the improved growth rate, initially starting in large exporting manufacturing firms, after a deep economic crisis at the beginning of the 1990s, spilled over to the rest of the economy, both manufacturing and services.
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| 7. |
- Oh, Donghyun, et al.
(författare)
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Total factor productivity of Korean manufacturing industries : Comparison of competing models with firm-level data
- 2014
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Ingår i: Japan and The World Economy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0922-1425 .- 1879-2006. ; 30, s. 25-36
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the parametric estimation of the rates of technical change and total factor productivity (TFP) growth of 7462 Korean manufacturing firms over the period 1987-2007. Two alternative formulations of technical change measured by the time trend and the general index approaches are estimated with panel data models assuming flexible functional forms. Several extensions of each approach are also considered and their benefits and limitations are discussed. In addition to making estimates of the TFP growth and its decomposition, the paper compares the parametric TFP growth measure with the non-parametric Solow residual serving as a benchmark. Several hypotheses related to technology level, firm sizes, industrial sectors, skill biased technological change and macroeconomic and industrial policies are tested to explain the growth patterns and heterogeneity in technical change, input biases and TFP growth rates. Using second regression analysis, the paper explores the determinants of TFP growth and their policy implications.
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| 8. |
- DeVylder, Jordan E, et al.
(författare)
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Stress Sensitivity and Psychotic Experiences in 39 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: Schizophrenia Bulletin. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0586-7614 .- 1745-1701. ; 42:6, s. 1353-1362
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Stress has a central role in most theories of psychosis etiology, but the relation between stress and psychosis has rarely been examined in large population-level data sets, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We used data from 39 countries in the World Health Survey (n = 176 934) to test the hypothesis that stress sensitivity would be associated with psychotic experiences, using logistic regression analyses. Respondents in low-income countries reported higher stress sensitivity (P < .001) and prevalence of psychotic experiences (P < .001), compared to individuals in middle-income countries. Greater stress sensitivity was associated with increased odds for psychotic experiences, even when adjusted for co-occurring anxiety and depressive symptoms: adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) = 1.17 (1.15-1.19) per unit increase in stress sensitivity (range 2-10). This association was consistent and significant across nearly every country studied, and translated into a difference in psychotic experience prevalence ranging from 6.4% among those with the lowest levels of stress sensitivity up to 22.2% among those with the highest levels. These findings highlight the generalizability of the association between psychosis and stress sensitivity in the largest and most globally representative community-level sample to date, and support the targeting of stress sensitivity as a potential component of individual- and population-level interventions for psychosis.
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| 9. |
- Groenewold, Nynke A., et al.
(författare)
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Volume of subcortical brain regions in social anxiety disorder : mega-analytic results from 37 samples in the ENIGMA-Anxiety Working Group
- 2023
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Ingår i: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Springer Nature. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 28:3, s. 1079-1089
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is limited convergence in neuroimaging investigations into volumes of subcortical brain regions in social anxiety disorder (SAD). The inconsistent findings may arise from variations in methodological approaches across studies, including sample selection based on age and clinical characteristics. The ENIGMA-Anxiety Working Group initiated a global mega-analysis to determine whether differences in subcortical volumes can be detected in adults and adolescents with SAD relative to healthy controls. Volumetric data from 37 international samples with 1115 SAD patients and 2775 controls were obtained from ENIGMA-standardized protocols for image segmentation and quality assurance. Linear mixed-effects analyses were adjusted for comparisons across seven subcortical regions in each hemisphere using family-wise error (FWE)-correction. Mixed-effects d effect sizes were calculated. In the full sample, SAD patients showed smaller bilateral putamen volume than controls (left: d = −0.077, pFWE = 0.037; right: d = −0.104, pFWE = 0.001), and a significant interaction between SAD and age was found for the left putamen (r = −0.034, pFWE = 0.045). Smaller bilateral putamen volumes (left: d = −0.141, pFWE < 0.001; right: d = −0.158, pFWE < 0.001) and larger bilateral pallidum volumes (left: d = 0.129, pFWE = 0.006; right: d = 0.099, pFWE = 0.046) were detected in adult SAD patients relative to controls, but no volumetric differences were apparent in adolescent SAD patients relative to controls. Comorbid anxiety disorders and age of SAD onset were additional determinants of SAD-related volumetric differences in subcortical regions. To conclude, subtle volumetric alterations in subcortical regions in SAD were detected. Heterogeneity in age and clinical characteristics may partly explain inconsistencies in previous findings. The association between alterations in subcortical volumes and SAD illness progression deserves further investigation, especially from adolescence into adulthood.
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| 10. |
- Koyanagi, Ai, et al.
(författare)
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Chronic Physical Conditions, Multimorbidity, and Mild Cognitive Impairment in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of The American Geriatrics Society. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0002-8614 .- 1532-5415. ; 66:4, s. 721-727
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between chronic physical conditions and multimorbidity and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).DESIGN: Nationally representative, cross-sectional, community-based study.SETTING: Six countries that participated in the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health.PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 50 and older (N=32,715; mean age 62.1 ± 15.6; 51.7% female).MEASUREMENTS: The definition of MCI was based on the recommendations of the National Institute on Ageing and Alzheimer's Association. Ten chronic conditions were assessed (angina pectoris, arthritis, asthma, cataract, chronic lung disease, diabetes mellitus, edentulism, hearing problems, hypertension, stroke). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the association between chronic physical conditions, multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions), and MCI.RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 49.8% (95% confidence interval (CI)=48.1-51.5%) and of MCI was 15.3% (95% CI=14.4-16.3%). After adjustment for potential confounders, edentulism (odds ratio (OR)=1.24), arthritis (OR=1.24), chronic lung disease (OR=1.29), cataract (OR=1.33), stroke (OR=1.94), hearing problems (OR=2.27), and multimorbidity (OR=1.40) were significantly associated with MCI. There was a gradual increase in the likelihood of MCI (1 condition: OR=1.21, 95% CI=1.03-1.42; ≥4 conditions: OR=2.07, 95% CI=1.70-2.52).CONCLUSION: These results highlight the need to investigate the underlying mechanisms linking chronic conditions and MCI and whether prevention or treatment of chronic conditions or multimorbidity can reduce the onset of cognitive decline and subsequent dementia, especially in LMICs.
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