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  • Campbell, PJ, et al. (författare)
  • Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 578:7793, s. 82-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:10009, s. 2145-2191
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6.2 years (95% UI 5.6-6.6), from 65.3 years (65.0-65.6) in 1990 to 71.5 years (71.0-71.9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5.4 years (4.9-5.8), from 56.9 years (54.5-59.1) to 62.3 years (59.7-64.8), total DALYs fell by 3.6% (0.3-7.4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26.7% (24.6-29.1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition-in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden-is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
  • Vos, Theo, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
  • Abdo, A. A., et al. (författare)
  • Gamma-ray emission concurrent with the nova in the symbiotic binary V407 cygni
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 329:5993, s. 817-821
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Novae are thermonuclear explosions on a white dwarf surface fueled by mass accreted from a companion star. Current physical models posit that shocked expanding gas from the nova shell can produce x-ray emission, but emission at higher energies has not been widely expected. Here, we report the Fermi Large Area Telescope detection of variable γ-ray emission (0.1 to 10 billion electron volts) from the recently detected optical nova of the symbiotic star V407 Cygni. We propose that the material of the nova shell interacts with the dense ambient medium of the red giant primary and that particles can be accelerated effectively to produce π0 decay γ-rays from proton-proton interactions. Emission involving inverse Compton scattering of the red giant radiation is also considered and is not ruled out.
  • Abdo, A. A., et al. (författare)
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8205 .- 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. - 0004-637X ; 706:1, s. L138-L144
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We report on the observation of the bright, long gamma-ray burst (GRB), GRB 090902B, by the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) and Large Area Telescope (LAT) instruments on-board the Fermi observatory. This was one of the brightest GRBs to have been observed by the LAT, which detected several hundred photons during the prompt phase. With a redshift of z = 1.822, this burst is among the most luminous detected by Fermi. Time-resolved spectral analysis reveals a significant power-law component in the LAT data that is distinct from the usual Band model emission that is seen in the sub-MeV energy range. This power-law component appears to extrapolate from the GeV range to the lowest energies and is more intense than the Band component, both below similar to 50 keV and above 100 MeV. The Band component undergoes substantial spectral evolution over the entire course of the burst, while the photon index of the power-law component remains constant for most of the prompt phase, then hardens significantly toward the end. After the prompt phase, power-law emission persists in the LAT data as late as 1 ks post-trigger, with its flux declining as t(-1.5). The LAT detected a photon with the highest energy so far measured from a GRB, 33.4(-3.5)(+ 2.7) GeV. This event arrived 82 s after the GBM trigger and similar to 50 s after the prompt phase emission had ended in the GBM band. We discuss the implications of these results for models of GRB emission and for constraints on models of the extragalactic background light.
  • Abdo, A. A., et al. (författare)
  • The on-orbit calibration of the Fermi Large Area Telescope
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 32:3-4, s. 193-219
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Large Area Telescope (LAT) on-board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope began its on-orbit operations on June 23, 2008. Calibrations, defined in a generic sense, correspond to synchronization of trigger signals, optimization of delays for latching data, determination of detector thresholds, gains and responses, evaluation of the perimeter of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), measurements of live time, of absolute time, and internal and spacecraft boresight alignments. Here we describe on-orbit calibration results obtained using known astrophysical sources, galactic cosmic rays, and charge injection into the front-end electronics of each detector. Instrument response functions will be described in a separate publication. This paper demonstrates the stability of calibrations and describes minor changes observed since launch. These results have been used to calibrate the LAT datasets to be publicly released in August 2009.
  • Acciari, V. A., et al. (författare)
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS. - 2041-8205. ; 715:1, s. L49-L55
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The high-frequency-peaked BL Lacertae object RGB J0710+591 was observed in the very high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) wave band by the VERITAS array of atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. The observations, taken between 2008 December and 2009 March and totaling 22.1 hr, yield the discovery of VHE gamma rays from the source. RGB J0710+591 is detected at a statistical significance of 5.5 standard deviations (5.5 sigma) above the background, corresponding to an integral flux of (3.9 +/- 0.8) x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1) (3% of the Crab Nebula's flux) above 300 GeV. The observed spectrum can be fit by a power law from 0.31 to 4.6 TeV with a photon spectral index of 2.69 +/- 0.26(stat) +/- 0.20(sys). These data are complemented by contemporaneous multiwavelength data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope, the Swift X-ray Telescope, the Swift Ultra-Violet and Optical Telescope, and the Michigan-Dartmouth-MIT observatory. Modeling the broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) with an equilibrium synchrotron self-Compton model yields a good statistical fit to the data. The addition of an external-Compton component to the model does not improve the fit nor brings the system closer to equipartition. The combined Fermi and VERITAS data constrain the properties of the high-energy emission component of the source over 4 orders of magnitude and give measurements of the rising and falling sections of the SED.
  • Abdo, A. A., et al. (författare)
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : IOP Publishing. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 188:2, s. 405-436
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), during the first 11 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. The First Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL) contains 1451 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range. Source detection was based on the average flux over the 11 month period, and the threshold likelihood Test Statistic is 25, corresponding to a significance of just over 4 sigma. The 1FGL catalog includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and power-law spectral fits as well as flux measurements in five energy bands for each source. In addition, monthly light curves are provided. Using a protocol defined before launch we have tested for several populations of gamma-ray sources among the sources in the catalog. For individual LAT-detected sources we provide firm identifications or plausible associations with sources in other astronomical catalogs. Identifications are based on correlated variability with counterparts at other wavelengths, or on spin or orbital periodicity. For the catalogs and association criteria that we have selected, 630 of the sources are unassociated. Care was taken to characterize the sensitivity of the results to the model of interstellar diffuse gamma-ray emission used to model the bright foreground, with the result that 161 sources at low Galactic latitudes and toward bright local interstellar clouds are flagged as having properties that are strongly dependent on the model or as potentially being due to incorrectly modeled structure in the Galactic diffuse emission.
  • Abdo, A. A., et al. (författare)
  • Fermi Observations of High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission from GRB 080916C
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 323:5922, s. 1688-1693
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are highly energetic explosions signaling the death of massive stars in distant galaxies. The Gamma-ray Burst Monitor and Large Area Telescope onboard the Fermi Observatory together record GRBs over a broad energy range spanning about 7 decades of gamma-ray energy. In September 2008, Fermi observed the exceptionally luminous GRB 080916C, with the largest apparent energy release yet measured. The high-energy gamma rays are observed to start later and persist longer than the lower energy photons. A simple spectral form fits the entire GRB spectrum, providing strong constraints on emission models. The known distance of the burst enables placing lower limits on the bulk Lorentz factor of the outflow and on the quantum gravity mass.
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