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Sökning: WFRF:(Olefeldt David)

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1.
  • Natali, S. M., et al. (författare)
  • Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Research. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 9:11, s. 852-857
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter(1-3), greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)(4). However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates(5,6). Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October-April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.
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2.
  • Abbott, Benjamin W., et al. (författare)
  • Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing: Open Access Journals / IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326 .- 1748-9326. ; 11:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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3.
  • Turetsky, Merritt R. (författare)
  • Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 13:2, s. 138-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km(2) of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km(2) permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.
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4.
  • Olefeldt, David (författare)
  • Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:2, s. 589-603
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Methane (CH4) emissions from the northern high-latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing-season CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on environmental and physical variables, including permafrost conditions, were used to assess controls on CH4 emissions. Water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition strongly influenced emissions and had interacting effects. Sites with a dense sedge cover had higher emissions than other sites at comparable water table positions, and this was an effect that was more pronounced at low soil temperatures. Sensitivity analysis suggested that CH4 emissions from ecosystems where the water table on average is at or above the soil surface (wet tundra, fen underlain by permafrost, and littoral ecosystems) are more sensitive to variability in soil temperature than drier ecosystems (palsa dry tundra, bog, and fen), whereas the latter ecosystems conversely are relatively more sensitive to changes of the water table position. Sites with near-surface permafrost had lower CH4 fluxes than sites without permafrost at comparable water table positions, a difference that was explained by lower soil temperatures. Neither the active layer depth nor the organic soil layer depth was related to CH4 emissions. Permafrost thaw in lowland regions is often associated with increased soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and increased sedge cover. In our database, lowland thermokarst sites generally had higher emissions than adjacent sites with intact permafrost, but emissions from thermokarst sites were not statistically higher than emissions from permafrost-free sites with comparable environmental conditions. Overall, these results suggest that future changes to terrestrial high-latitude CH4 emissions will be more proximately related to changes in moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation composition than to increased availability of organic matter following permafrost thaw.
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5.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, et al. (författare)
  • Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 117:34, s. 20438-20446
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 +/- 0.5 million km(2) and store 415 +/- 150 Pg C and 10 +/- 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 degrees C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 +/- 0.02 Pg C.y(-1)) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km 2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to similar to 1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after similar to 200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.
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6.
  • Lundin, Erik J (författare)
  • Is the subarctic landscape still a carbon sink? : Evidence from a detailed catchment balance
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 43:5, s. 1988-1995
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate warming raises the question whether high-latitude landscape still function as net carbon (C) sinks. By compiling an integrated C balance for an intensely studied subarctic catchment, we show that this catchment's C balance is not likely to be a strong current sink of C, a commonly held assumption. In fact, it is more plausible (71% probability) that the studied catchment functions as a C source (-1120gCm(-2)yr(-1)). Analyses of individual fluxes indicate that soil and aquatic C losses offset C sequestering in other landscape components (e.g., peatlands and aboveground forest biomass). Our results stress the importance of fully integrated catchment C balance estimates and highlight the importance of upland soils and their interaction with the aquatic network for the catchment C balance.
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7.
  • Lundin, Erik J., et al. (författare)
  • Is the subarctic landscape still a carbon sink? Evidence from a detailed catchment balance
  • Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 43:5, s. 1988-1995
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate warming raises the question whether high-latitude landscape still function as net carbon (C) sinks. By compiling an integrated C balance for an intensely studied subarctic catchment, we show that this catchment's C balance is not likely to be a strong current sink of C, a commonly held assumption. In fact, it is more plausible (71% probability) that the studied catchment functions as a C source (-11 ± 20 g C m-2 yr-1). Analyses of individual fluxes indicate that soil and aquatic C losses offset C sequestering in other landscape components (e.g., peatlands and aboveground forest biomass). Our results stress the importance of fully integrated catchment C balance estimates and highlight the importance of upland soils and their interaction with the aquatic network for the catchment C balance.
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8.
  • Mzobe, Pearl, et al. (författare)
  • Dissolved organic carbon in streams within a subarctic catchment analysed using a GIS/remote sensing approach
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science. - 1932-6203 .- 1932-6203. ; 13:7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change projections show that temperature and precipitation increases can alter the exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and high latitude landscapes, including their freshwaters. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays an important role in greenhouse gas emissions, but the impact of catchment productivity on DOC release to subarctic waters remains poorly known, especially at regional scales. We test the hypothesis that increased terrestrial productivity, as indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), generates higher stream DOC concentrations in the Stordalen catchment in subarctic Sweden. Furthermore, we aimed to determine the degree to which other generic catchment properties (elevation, slope) explain DOC concentration, and whether or not land cover variables representing the local vegetation type (e.g., mire, forest) need to be included to obtain adequate predictive models for DOC delivered into rivers. We show that the land cover type, especially the proportion of mire, played a dominant role in the catchment's release of DOC, while NDVI, slope, and elevation were supporting predictor variables. The NDVI as a single predictor showed weak and inconsistent relationships to DOC concentrations in recipient waters, yet NDVI was a significant positive regulator of DOC in multiple regression models that included land cover variables. Our study illustrates that vegetation type exerts primary control in DOC regulation in Stordalen, while productivity (NDVI) is of secondary importance. Thus, predictive multiple linear regression models for DOC can be utilized combining these different types of explanatory variables.
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9.
  • Mzobe, P., et al. (författare)
  • Morphometric Control on Dissolved Organic Carbon in Subarctic Streams
  • Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - : Wiley. - 2169-8953. ; 125:9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change has the potential to alter hydrological regimes and to expand saturated areas in permafrost environments, which are important sources of organic carbon. The sources, transfer zones, and delivery mechanisms of carbon into the stream network are controlled by the morphometric properties of the catchment; however, the utility and limitations of these properties as predictors of dissolved organic carbon concentrations have rarely been systematically evaluated. This study tested the relationships between 18 morphometric indicators and observed dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the Stordalen catchment, Sweden. Geospatial and explorative statistics were combined to assess the topographical, areal, and linear indicators influencing the distribution of DOC in the catchment. The results suggest that catchment morphometric indicators can be used as proxies to predict DOC concentrations along a longitudinal continuum in subarctic climate regions (R2 up to 0.52). Morphometry indicators that best served as predictors of DOC concentration in the model were as follows: relief, slope length and steepness factor (LS‐factor), sediment transport capacity, and catchment area. Due to the influence that catchment form exerts in DOC spatial patterns and processing, a morphometric approach can serve as a first approximation of DOC spatial patterns within a catchment. The initial step in identifying carbon sources based on the catchment topography has the potential to allow for quick and multilevel comparison within and between catchments.
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10.
  • Olefeldt, David, et al. (författare)
  • Net carbon accumulation of a high-latitude permafrost palsa mire similar to permafrost-free peatlands
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 1944-8007 .- 0094-8276. ; 39, s. 03501-03501
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Palsa mires, nutrient poor permafrost peatlands common in subarctic regions, store a significant amount of carbon (C) and it has been hypothesized their net ecosystem C balance (NECB) is sensitive to climate change. Over two years we measured the NECB for Stordalen palsa mire and found it to accumulate 46 g C m(-2) yr(-1). While Stordalen NECB is comparable to nutrient poor peatlands without permafrost, the component fluxes differ considerably in magnitude. Specifically, Stordalen had both lower growing season CO2 uptake and wintertime CO2 losses, but importantly also low dissolved organic carbon exports and hydrocarbon (mainly methane) emissions. Restricted C losses from palsa mires are likely to have facilitated C accumulation of unproductive subarctic permafrost peatlands. Continued climate change and permafrost thaw is likely to amplify several component fluxes, with an uncertain overall effect on NECB - highlighting the necessity for projections of high-latitude C storage to consider all C fluxes. Citation: Olefeldt, D., N. T. Roulet, O. Bergeron, P. Crill, K. Backstrand, and T. R. Christensen (2012), Net carbon accumulation of a high-latitude permafrost palsa mire similar to permafrost-free peatlands, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L03501, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050355.
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