| 1. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 2. |
- Olefeldt, David, et al.
(författare)
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The Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD)
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft MBH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:11, s. 5127-5149
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methane emissions. Here we present the BorealArctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolated using random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate, topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surface water extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage of five wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes (17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined using criteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicated by a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. In BAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 x 10(6) km(2) (14 % of domain) with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 x 10(6) km(2). Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetland classes, covering similar to 28 % each of the total wetland area, while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied 5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-water ecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 x 10(6) km(2) (6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (>10 km(2)) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lake area, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %, respectively. Small (<0.1 km(2)) glacial, peatland, and yedoma lakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributed disproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a 95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 x 10(6) km(2). Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12 x 10(6) km(2) (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated with high-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes. Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classes were identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of "wetscapes" that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes and sensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide a dataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extents and which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such, BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modelling and upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, in particular those aimed at improving assessments of current and future methane emissions.
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| 3. |
- Turetsky, Merritt R., et al.
(författare)
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Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 13:2, s. 138-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km(2) of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km(2) permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.
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| 4. |
- Kuhn, McKenzie A., et al.
(författare)
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BAWLD-CH4 : a comprehensive dataset of methane fluxes from boreal and arctic ecosystems
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft MBH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:11, s. 5151-5189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methane (CH4) emissions from the boreal and arctic region are globally significant and highly sensitive to climate change. There is currently a wide range in estimates of high-latitude annual CH4 fluxes, where estimates based on land cover inventories and empirical CH4 flux data or process models (bottom-up approaches) generally are greater than atmospheric inversions (top-down approaches). A limitation of bottom-up approaches has been the lack of harmonization between inventories of site-level CH4 flux data and the land cover classes present in high-latitude spatial datasets. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of small-scale, surface CH4 flux data from 540 terrestrial sites (wetland and non-wetland) and 1247 aquatic sites (lakes and ponds), compiled from 189 studies. The Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Methane Dataset (BAWLD-CH4) was constructed in parallel with a compatible land cover dataset, sharing the same land cover classes to enable refined bottom-up assessments. BAWLD-CH4 includes information on site-level CH4 fluxes but also on study design (measurement method, timing, and frequency) and site characteristics (vegetation, climate, hydrology, soil, and sediment types, permafrost conditions, lake size and depth, and our determination of land cover class). The different land cover classes had distinct CH4 fluxes, resulting from definitions that were either based on or co-varied with key environmental controls. Fluxes of CH4 from terrestrial ecosystems were primarily influenced by water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition, while CH4 fluxes from aquatic ecosystems were primarily influenced by water temperature, lake size, and lake genesis. Models could explain more of the between-site variability in CH4 fluxes for terrestrial than aquatic ecosystems, likely due to both less precise assessments of lake CH4 fluxes and fewer consistently reported lake site characteristics. Analysis of BAWLD-CH4 identified both land cover classes and regions within the boreal and arctic domain, where future studies should be focused, alongside methodological approaches. Overall, BAWLD-CH4 provides a comprehensive dataset of CH4 emissions from high-latitude ecosystems that are useful for identifying research opportunities, for comparison against new field data, and model parameterization or validation.
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| 5. |
- Kuhn, McKenzie A., et al.
(författare)
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Opposing Effects of Climate and Permafrost Thaw on CH4 and CO2 Emissions From Northern Lakes
- 2021
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Ingår i: AGU Advances. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2576-604X. ; 2:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Small, organic-rich lakes are important sources of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, yet the sensitivity of emissions to climate warming is poorly constrained and potentially influenced by permafrost thaw. Here, we monitored emissions from 20 peatland lakes across a 1,600 km permafrost transect in boreal western Canada. Contrary to expectations, we observed a shift from source to sink of CO2 for lakes warmer regions, driven by greater primary productivity associated with greater hydrological connectivity to lakes and nutrient availability in the absence of permafrost. Conversely, an 8-fold increase in CH4 emissions in warmer regions was associated with water temperature and shifts in microbial communities and dominant anaerobic processes. Our results suggest that the net radiative forcing from altered greenhouse gas emissions of northern peatland lakes this century will be dominated by increasing CH4 emissions and only partially offset by reduced CO2 emissions.
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| 6. |
- Olefeldt, David, et al.
(författare)
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Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:2, s. 589-603
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methane (CH4) emissions from the northern high-latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing-season CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on environmental and physical variables, including permafrost conditions, were used to assess controls on CH4 emissions. Water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition strongly influenced emissions and had interacting effects. Sites with a dense sedge cover had higher emissions than other sites at comparable water table positions, and this was an effect that was more pronounced at low soil temperatures. Sensitivity analysis suggested that CH4 emissions from ecosystems where the water table on average is at or above the soil surface (wet tundra, fen underlain by permafrost, and littoral ecosystems) are more sensitive to variability in soil temperature than drier ecosystems (palsa dry tundra, bog, and fen), whereas the latter ecosystems conversely are relatively more sensitive to changes of the water table position. Sites with near-surface permafrost had lower CH4 fluxes than sites without permafrost at comparable water table positions, a difference that was explained by lower soil temperatures. Neither the active layer depth nor the organic soil layer depth was related to CH4 emissions. Permafrost thaw in lowland regions is often associated with increased soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and increased sedge cover. In our database, lowland thermokarst sites generally had higher emissions than adjacent sites with intact permafrost, but emissions from thermokarst sites were not statistically higher than emissions from permafrost-free sites with comparable environmental conditions. Overall, these results suggest that future changes to terrestrial high-latitude CH4 emissions will be more proximately related to changes in moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation composition than to increased availability of organic matter following permafrost thaw.
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| 7. |
- Schuur, Edward A. G., et al.
(författare)
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Permafrost and Climate Change : Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Annual Review Environment and Resources. - : Annual Reviews. - 1543-5938 .- 1545-2050. ; 47, s. 343-371
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid Arctic environmental change affects the entire Earth system as thawing permafrost ecosystems release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Understanding how much permafrost carbon will be released, over what time frame, and what the relative emissions of carbon dioxide and methane will be is key for understanding the impact on global climate. In addition, the response of vegetation in a warming climate has the potential to offset at least some of the accelerating feedback to the climate from permafrost carbon. Temperature, organic carbon, and ground ice are key regulators for determining the impact of permafrost ecosystems on the global carbon cycle. Together, these encompass services of permafrost relevant to global society as well as to the people living in the region and help to determine the landscape-level response of this region to a changing climate.
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| 8. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 10
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO2, the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.
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| 9. |
- Harris, Lorna I., et al.
(författare)
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Permafrost thaw causes large carbon loss in boreal peatlands while changes to peat quality are limited
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 29:19, s. 5720-5735
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid, ongoing permafrost thaw of peatlands in the discontinuous permafrost zone is exposing a globally significant store of soil carbon (C) to microbial processes. Mineralization and release of this peat C to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases is a potentially important feedback to climate change. Here we investigated the effects of permafrost thaw on peat C at a peatland complex in western Canada. We collected 15 complete peat cores (between 2.7 and 4.5 m deep) along four chronosequences, from elevated permafrost peat plateaus to saturated thermokarst bogs that thawed up to 600 years ago. The peat cores were analysed for peat C storage and peat quality, as indicated by decomposition proxies (FTIR and C/N ratios) and potential decomposability using a 200-day aerobic laboratory incubation. Our results suggest net C loss following thaw, with average total peat C stocks decreasing by ~19.3 ± 7.2 kg C m−2 over <600 years (~13% loss). Average post-thaw accumulation of new peat at the surface over the same period was ~13.1 ± 2.5 kg C m−2. We estimate ~19% (±5.8%) of deep peat (>40 cm below surface) C is lost following thaw (average 26 ± 7.9 kg C m−2 over <600 years). Our FTIR analysis shows peat below the thaw transition in thermokarst bogs is slightly more decomposed than peat of a similar type and age in permafrost plateaus, but we found no significant changes to the quality or lability of deeper peat across the chronosequences. Our incubation results also showed no increase in C mineralization of deep peat across the chronosequences. While these limited changes in peat quality in deeper peat following permafrost thaw highlight uncertainty in the exact mechanisms and processes for C loss, our analysis of peat C stocks shows large C losses following permafrost thaw in peatlands in western Canada.
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| 10. |
- Heffernan, Liam, et al.
(författare)
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Constraints on potential enzyme activities in thermokarst bogs : Implications for the carbon balance of peatlands following thaw
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27:19, s. 4711-4726
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Northern peatlands store a globally significant amount of soil organic carbon, much of it found in rapidly thawing permafrost. Permafrost thaw in peatlands often leads to the development and expansion of thermokarst bogs, where microbial activity will determine the stability of the carbon storage and the release of greenhouse gases. In this study, we compared potential enzyme activities between young (thawed 30 years ago) and mature ( 200 years) thermokarst bogs, for both shallow and deep peat layers. We found very low potential enzyme activities in deep peat layers, with no differences between the young and mature bogs. Peat quality at depth was found to be highly humified (FTIR analysis) in both the young and mature bogs. This suggests that deep, old peat was largely stable following permafrost thaw, without a rapid pulse of decomposition during the young bog stage. For near-surface peat, we found significantly higher potential enzyme activities in the young bog than in the mature—associated with differences in peat quality derived from different Sphagnum species. A laboratory incubation of near-surface peat showed that differences in potential enzyme activity were primarily influenced by peat type rather than oxygen availability. This suggested that the young bog can have higher rates of near-surface decomposition despite being substantially wetter than the mature bog. Overall, our study shows that peat properties are the dominant constraint on potential enzyme activity and that peatland site development (successional pathways and permafrost history) through its influence on peat type and chemistry is likely to determine peat decomposition following permafrost thaw.
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