| 1. |
- Ahlerup, Pelle, 1977, et al.
(author)
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Sustainable Economic Growth: A Critical Assessment of SDG 8.1
- 2023
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In this report, we focus on the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 8.1, stipulating that countries should pursue real GDP per capita growth rates that are in accordance with their national circumstances and that total GDP should grow by more than seven percent a year in the least developed countries. We start by briefly discussing the background of this target and then review some of the existing research on economic growth across the world, starting with growth theory and its predictions concerning the convergence of growth rates and income levels in the short and long term. We also review the extensive empirical work on cross-country income and growth regressions that have accumulated during the last three decades, focusing on recent (pre-covid) and historical patterns regarding the fulfillment of the SDG 8.1 targets. We show that a growth rate in total GDP of seven percent per year has only been observed in about 10 percent of all available country-year observations over history. Growth rates exceeding seven percent were relatively frequent among poor countries during 2000-2009 but not during 2009-2019. Since 2000, the relatively high average growth rates among poor countries have implied that their income levels have steadily converged towards those of richer countries, although at a slow pace. This pattern is manifested in longer periods of sustained growth episodes in poor countries and can probably be explained by successful policy reforms. We also show that about a third of all countries managed to have positive economic growth during 2010-19 while at the same time decreasing their emissions of CO2 from production (decoupling). For poor and rich countries alike, the growth prospects post-covid and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are uncertain.
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| 2. |
- D´Arcy, Michelle, et al.
(author)
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Land Property Rights, Cadasters and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Panel 1000-2015 CE
- 2021
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Since the transition to agricultural production, property rights to land have been a key institution for economic development. Clearly defined land rights provide economic agents with increased access to credit, secure returns on investment, free up resources used to defend one's land rights, and facilitate land market transactions. Formalized land records also strengthen governments' capacity to tax land-owners. Despite a large body of extant micro-level empirical studies, macro-level research on the evolution of formal rights to land, and their importance for economic growth, has so far been lacking. In this paper, we present a novel data set on the emergence of state-administered cadasters (i.e. centralized land records) for 159 countries over the last millennium. We also analyze empirically the association between the development of cadastral institutions and long-run economic growth in a panel of countries. Our findings demonstrate a substantive positive effect of the introduction of cadasters on modern per capita income levels, supporting theoretical conjectures that states with more formalized property rights to land should experience higher levels of economic growth.
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| 3. |
- Lindsay, Willow R, et al.
(author)
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Endless forms of sexual selection
- 2024
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The field of sexual selection has burgeoned with research into trait evolution in the context of ecology, sociality, phylogeny, natural selection, and sexual conflict. This paper is the product of a “stock-taking” workshop; our aim is to stimulate discussion, not to provide an exhaustive review. We identify outstanding questions organized into four thematic sections.1) Evolution of mate choice and mating systems. Variation in mate quality can generate mating competition and choice in either sex with implications for the evolution of mating systems. Limitations on mate choice may dictate the importance of direct vs. indirect benefits in mating decisions and consequently, mating systems. Specifically, polyandry evolves in response to the strength of pre- vs. post-copulatory selection. The evolution of polyandry may be related to diversity of pathogens and Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) genes. MHC genes are also potential cues of kinship in avoidance of inbreeding. The balance between inbreeding avoidance and inclusive fitness in mating decisions deserves greater attention.2) Sender and receiver mechanisms shaping signal design. Mediation of honest signal content likely depends on integration of temporally variable social and physiological costs that are a challenge to measure. The neuroethology of sensory and cognitive receiver biases is the main key to signal form and the ‘aesthetic sense’ proposed by Darwin. Since a receiver bias is sufficient to both start and drive ornament or armament exaggeration, without a genetically correlated or even coevolving receiver, this may be the appropriate ‘null model’ of sexual selection.3) Genetic architecture of sexual selection. Despite advances in modern molecular techniques, the number and identity of genes underlying performance remain largely unknown. A combination of genomic techniques and long-term field studies that reveal ecological correlates of reproductive success is warranted. In-depth investigations into the genetic basis of sexual dimorphism will reveal constraints and trajectories of sexually selected trait evolution.4) Sexual selection and conflict as drivers of speciation. Population divergence and speciation is often driven by an interplay between sexual and natural selection. To what extent sexual selection promotes or counteracts population divergence may differ depending on the genetic architecture of traits as well as covariance between mating competition and local adaptation, if traits have multiple functions and if sensory systems used in mate choice are locally adapted. Also, post-copulatory processes, e.g. selection against heterospecific sperm, may influence the importance of sexual selection. Sexual conflict can shape speciation processes, since mate choice selection on females can restrict gene flow whereas selection on males is permissive.We propose that efforts to resolve these four themes can catalyze conceptual progress in the field of sexual selection.
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| 4. |
- Lindskog, Annika, 1979, et al.
(author)
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Conditional Persistence? Historical Disease Exposure and Government Response to COVID-19
- 2023
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In this paper, we investigate differences in government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on the theory of the Behavioral Immune System and the Parasite Stress Theory, we hypothesize that a higher historical disease exposure leads to a stricter government response to the pandemic, in particular during the first year which was characterized by fundamental uncertainty. Our empirical analysis, using weekly panel data for almost every country in the world, show that a higher historical disease exposure is indeed related to a stronger response to disease dynamics, at least in the first year of the pandemic. The pattern is the same for state-level containment policies within the United States. Our results suggest that the persistence of historical legacies may not be deterministic, but rather time-varying and conditional on circumstances. Cultural norms may matter more in times of crisis and fundamental uncertainty
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| 5. |
- Mayoral, Laura, et al.
(author)
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Pharaoh´s Cage: Environmental Circumscription and Appropriability in Early State Development
- 2019
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- What explains the origins and survival of the first states around five thousand years ago? In this research, we focus on the role of productivity shocks for early state development in a single region: ancient Egypt. We introduce a model of extractive state consolidation that predicts that political instability should be low whenever environmental circumscription is high, i.e., whenever there is a large gap between the productivity of the area under state control (core) and that of the surrounding areas (hinterland). In these periods the elite can impose high levels of taxation that the population will be forced to accept as exit is not an attractive option. In order to test this hypothesis, we develop novel proxies for historical productivities on the basis of high-resolution paleoclimate archives. Our empirical analysis then investigates the relationship between proxies of the productivity of the Nile banks and of the Egyptian hinterland on the one hand, and political outcomes such as ruler and dynastic tenure durations and the intensity of pyramid construction on the other, during 2685 - 750 BCE. Our results show that while both too high or too low Nile floods are associated with a greater degree of political instability, periods with a greater rainfall in the hinterland (and hence a lower degree of environmental circumscription) are associated with an immediate rise in military and pyramid construction activity but also with a delayed increase in political instability, since the decline in effective circumscription provides the farming population with an outside option in the hinterland.
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