| 1. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Hageman, S., et al.
(författare)
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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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| 3. |
- Besson, H., et al.
(författare)
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A cross-sectional analysis of physical activity and obesity indicators in European participants of the EPIC-PANACEA study
- 2009
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Ingår i: International Journal of Obesity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5497 .- 0307-0565. ; 33:4, s. 497-506
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: Cross-sectional data suggest a strong association between low levels of physical activity and obesity. The EPIC-PANACEA ( European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Cessation of Smoking, Eating out of home And obesity) project was designed to investigate the associations between physical activity and body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference based on individual data collected across nine European countries. Methods: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition ( EPIC), 519 931 volunteers were recruited between 1992 and 2000, of whom 405 819 had data on main variables of interest. Height, body weight and waist circumference were measured using standardized procedures. Physical activity was assessed using a validated four-category index reflecting a self-reported usual activity during work and leisure time. The associations between physical activity and BMI and waist circumference were estimated using multilevel mixed effects linear regression models, adjusted for age, total energy intake, smoking status, alcohol consumption and educational level. Results: A total of 125 629 men and 280 190 women with a mean age of 52.9 (s.d. 9.7) and 51.5 (s.d. 10.0) years, respectively were included. The mean BMI was 26.6 kg/m(2) (s.d. 3.6) in men and 25.0 kg/m(2) (s.d. 4.5) in women. Fifty percent of men and 30% of women were categorized as being active or moderately active. A one-category difference in the physical activity index was inversely associated with a difference of 0.18 kg/m(2) in the mean BMI (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.11, 0.24) and 1.04-cm (95% CI 0.82, 1.26) difference in waist circumference in men. The equivalent figures for women were 0.31 kg/m(2) (95% CI 0.23, 0.38) and 0.90 cm ( 95% CI 0.71, 1.08), respectively. Conclusions: Physical activity is inversely associated with both BMI and waist circumference across nine European countries. Although we cannot interpret the association causally, our results were observed in a large and diverse cohort independently from many potential confounders.
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| 4. |
- Grote, V. A., et al.
(författare)
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Diabetes mellitus, glycated haemoglobin and C-peptide levels in relation to pancreatic cancer risk : a study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort
- 2011
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Ingår i: Diabetologia. - New York : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0012-186X .- 1432-0428. ; 54:12, s. 3037-3046
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims/hypothesis: There has been long-standing debate about whether diabetes is a causal risk factor for pancreatic cancer or a consequence of tumour development. Prospective epidemiological studies have shown variable relationships between pancreatic cancer risk and blood markers of glucose and insulin metabolism, overall and as a function of lag times between marker measurements (blood donation) and date of tumour diagnosis.Methods: Pre-diagnostic levels of HbA(1c) and C-peptide were measured for 466 participants with pancreatic cancer and 466 individually matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs for pancreatic cancer.Results: Pancreatic cancer risk gradually increased with increasing pre-diagnostic HbA(1c) levels up to an OR of 2.42 (95% CI 1.33, 4.39 highest [>= 6.5%, 48 mmol/mol] vs lowest [<= 5.4%, 36 mmol/mol] category), even for individuals with HbA(1c) levels within the non-diabetic range. C-peptide levels showed no significant relationship with pancreatic cancer risk, irrespective of fasting status. Analyses showed no clear trends towards increasing hyperglycaemia (as marked by HbA(1c) levels) or reduced pancreatic beta cell responsiveness (as marked by C-peptide levels) with decreasing time intervals from blood donation to cancer diagnosis.Conclusions/interpretation: Our data on HbA(1c) show that individuals who develop exocrine pancreatic cancer tend to have moderate increases in HbA(1c) levels, relatively independently of obesity and insulin resistance-the classic and major risk factors for type 2 diabetes. While there is no strong difference by lag time, more data are needed on this in order to reach a firm conclusion.
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| 5. |
- Grote, V. A., et al.
(författare)
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Inflammation marker and risk of pancreatic cancer: A nested case-control study within the EPIC cohort
- 2012
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Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 106, s. 1866-1874
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Established risk factors for pancreatic cancer include smoking, long-standing diabetes, high body fatness, and chronic pancreatitis, all of which can be characterised by aspects of inflammatory processes. However, prospective studies investigating the relation between inflammatory markers and pancreatic cancer risk are scarce. Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, measuring prediagnostic blood levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and soluble receptors of tumour necrosis factor-α (sTNF-R1, R2) in 455 pancreatic cancer cases and 455 matched controls. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression models. Results: None of the inflammatory markers were significantly associated with risk of pancreatic cancer overall, although a borderline significant association was observed for higher circulating sTNF-R2 (crude OR=1.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97-2.39), highest vs lowest quartile). In women, however, higher sTNF-R1 levels were significantly associated with risk of pancreatic cancer (crude OR=1.97 (95% CI 1.02-3.79)). For sTNF-R2, risk associations seemed to be stronger for diabetic individuals and those with a higher BMI. Conclusion: Prospectively, CRP and IL-6 do not seem to have a role in our study with respect to risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas sTNF-R1 seemed to be a risk factor in women and sTNF-R2 might be a mediator in the risk relationship between overweight and diabetes with pancreatic cancer. Further large prospective studies are needed to clarify the role of proinflammatory proteins and cytokines in the pathogenesis of exocrine pancreatic cancer. © 2012 Cancer Research UK.
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| 6. |
- Nitter, M., et al.
(författare)
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Plasma methionine, choline, betaine, and dimethylglycine in relation to colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)
- 2014
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Ingår i: Annals of Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0923-7534 .- 1569-8041. ; 25:8, s. 1609-1615
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Disturbances in one carbon metabolism may contribute to carcinogenesis by affecting methylation and synthesis of DNA. Choline and its oxidation product betaine are involved in this metabolism and can serve as alternative methyl group donors when folate status is low. Patients and methods: We conducted a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), to investigate plasma concentrations of the methyl donors methionine, choline, betaine (trimethylglycine), and dimethylglycine (DMG) in relation to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Our study included 1367 incident CRC cases (965 colon and 402 rectum) and 2323 controls matched by gender, age group, and study center. Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for CRC risk were estimated by conditional logistic regression, comparing the fifth to the first quintile of plasma concentrations. Results: Overall, methionine (OR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.63-0.99, P-trend = 0.05), choline (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.60-0.99, P-trend = 0.07), and betaine (OR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.66-1.09, P-trend = 0.06) concentrations were inversely associated with CRC risk of borderline significance. In participants with folate concentration below the median of 11.3 nmol/l, high betaine concentration was associated with reduced CRC risk (OR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.50-1.00, P-trend = 0.02), which was not observed for those having a higher folate status. Among women, but not men, high choline concentration was associated with decreased CRC risk (OR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.43-0.88, P-trend = 0.01). Plasma DMG was not associated with CRC risk. Conclusions: Individuals with high plasma concentrations of methionine, choline, and betaine may be at reduced risk of CRC.
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| 7. |
- Romaguera, D., et al.
(författare)
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Consumption of sweet beverages and type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults: results from EPIC-InterAct
- 2013
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Ingår i: Diabetologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-0428 .- 0012-186X. ; 56:7, s. 1520-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages has been shown, largely in American populations, to increase type 2 diabetes incidence. We aimed to evaluate the association of consumption of sweet beverages (juices and nectars, sugar-sweetened soft drinks and artificially sweetened soft drinks) with type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults. We established a case-cohort study including 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 participants selected from eight European cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. After exclusions, the final sample size included 11,684 incident cases and a subcohort of 15,374 participants. Cox proportional hazards regression models (modified for the case-cohort design) and random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate the association between sweet beverage consumption (obtained from validated dietary questionnaires) and type 2 diabetes incidence. In adjusted models, one 336 g (12 oz) daily increment in sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened soft drink consumption was associated with HRs for type 2 diabetes of 1.22 (95% CI 1.09, 1.38) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.26, 1.83), respectively. After further adjustment for energy intake and BMI, the association of sugar-sweetened soft drinks with type 2 diabetes persisted (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06, 1.32), but the association of artificially sweetened soft drinks became statistically not significant (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.95, 1.31). Juice and nectar consumption was not associated with type 2 diabetes incidence. This study corroborates the association between increased incidence of type 2 diabetes and high consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks in European adults.
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| 8. |
- Beulens, J. W. J., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in European men and women : influence of beverage type and body size The EPIC-InterAct study
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Internal Medicine. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0954-6820 .- 1365-2796. ; 272:4, s. 358-370
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes, and determine whether this is modified by sex, body mass index (BMI) and beverage type. Design: Multicentre prospective casecohort study. Setting: Eight countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Subjects: A representative baseline sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. Interventions: Alcohol consumption assessed using validated dietary questionnaires. Main outcome measures: Occurrence of type 2 diabetes based on multiple sources (mainly self-reports), verified against medical information. Results: Amongst men, moderate alcohol consumption was nonsignificantly associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.781.05) for 6.112.0 versus 0.16.0 g day-1, adjusted for dietary and diabetes risk factors. However, the lowest risk was observed at higher intakes of 24.196.0 g day-1 with an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.750.98). Amongst women, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.720.92) for 6.112.0 g day-1 (P interaction gender <0.01). The inverse association between alcohol consumption and diabetes was more pronounced amongst overweight (BMI = 25 kg m-2) than normal-weight men and women (P interaction < 0.05). Adjusting for waist and hip circumference did not alter the results for men, but attenuated the association for women (HR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.791.03 for 6.112.0 g day-1). Wine consumption for men and fortified wine consumption for women were most strongly associated with a reduced risk of diabetes. Conclusions: The results of this study show that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes amongst women only. However, this risk reduction is in part explained by fat distribution. The relation between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes was stronger for overweight than normal-weight women and men.
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| 9. |
- Jeurnink, S. M., et al.
(författare)
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Variety in vegetable and fruit consumption and the risk of gastric and esophageal cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 131:6, s. E963-E973
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diets high in vegetables and fruits have been suggested to be inversely associated with risk of gastric cancer. However, the evidence of the effect of variety of consumption is limited. We therefore investigated whether consumption of a variety of vegetables and fruit is associated with gastric and esophageal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Data on food consumption and follow-up on cancer incidence were available for 452,269 participants from 10 European countries. After a mean follow-up of 8.4 years, 475 cases of gastric and esophageal adenocarcinomas (180 noncardia, 185 cardia, gastric esophageal junction and esophagus, 110 not specified) and 98 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas were observed. Diet Diversity Scores were used to quantify the variety in vegetable and fruit consumption. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to calculate risk ratios. Independent from quantity of consumption, variety in the consumption of vegetables and fruit combined and of fruit consumption alone were statistically significantly inversely associated with the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (continuous hazard ratio per 2 products increment 0.88; 95% CI 0.790.97 and 0.76; 95% CI 0.620.94, respectively) with the latter particularly seen in ever smokers. Variety in vegetable and/or fruit consumption was not associated with risk of gastric and esophageal adenocarcinomas. Independent from quantity of consumption, more variety in vegetable and fruit consumption combined and in fruit consumption alone may decrease the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. However, residual confounding by lifestyle factors cannot be excluded.
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| 10. |
- Langenberg, C., et al.
(författare)
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Design and cohort description of the InterAct Project : an examination of the interaction of genetic and lifestyle factors on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC Study
- 2011
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Ingår i: Diabetologia. - : Springer. - 0012-186X .- 1432-0428. ; 54:9, s. 2272-2282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studying gene-lifestyle interaction may help to identify lifestyle factors that modify genetic susceptibility and uncover genetic loci exerting important subgroup effects. Adequately powered studies with prospective, unbiased, standardised assessment of key behavioural factors for gene-lifestyle studies are lacking. This case-cohort study aims to investigate how genetic and potentially modifiable lifestyle and behavioural factors, particularly diet and physical activity, interact in their influence on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurring in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohorts between 1991 and 2007 from eight of the ten EPIC countries were ascertained and verified. Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analyses were used to investigate differences in diabetes incidence by age and sex. A total of 12,403 verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred during 3.99 million person-years of follow-up of 340,234 EPIC participants eligible for InterAct. We defined a centre-stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals for comparative analyses. Individuals with incident diabetes who were randomly selected into the subcohort (n = 778) were included as cases in the analyses. All prevalent diabetes cases were excluded from the study. InterAct cases were followed-up for an average of 6.9 years; 49.7% were men. Mean baseline age and age at diagnosis were 55.6 and 62.5 years, mean BMI and waist circumference values were 29.4 kg/m(2) and 102.7 cm in men, and 30.1 kg/m(2) and 92.8 cm in women, respectively. Risk of type 2 diabetes increased linearly with age, with an overall HR of 1.56 (95% CI 1.48-1.64) for a 10 year age difference, adjusted for sex. A male excess in the risk of incident diabetes was consistently observed across all countries, with a pooled HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.39-1.64), adjusted for age. InterAct is a large, well-powered, prospective study that will inform our understanding of the interplay between genes and lifestyle factors on the risk of type 2 diabetes development.
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