| 1. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
-
World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
| 2. |
- Hageman, S., et al.
(författare)
-
SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
-
Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
|
|
| 3. |
- Wang, Zhaoming, et al.
(författare)
-
Imputation and subset-based association analysis across different cancer types identifies multiple independent risk loci in the TERT-CLPTM1L region on chromosome 5p15.33
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 23:24, s. 6616-6633
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have mapped risk alleles for at least 10 distinct cancers to a small region of 63 000 bp on chromosome 5p15.33. This region harbors the TERT and CLPTM1L genes; the former encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase reverse transcriptase and the latter may play a role in apoptosis. To investigate further the genetic architecture of common susceptibility alleles in this region, we conducted an agnostic subset-based meta-analysis (association analysis based on subsets) across six distinct cancers in 34 248 cases and 45 036 controls. Based on sequential conditional analysis, we identified as many as six independent risk loci marked by common single-nucleotide polymorphisms: five in the TERT gene (Region 1: rs7726159, P = 2.10 × 10(-39); Region 3: rs2853677, P = 3.30 × 10(-36) and PConditional = 2.36 × 10(-8); Region 4: rs2736098, P = 3.87 × 10(-12) and PConditional = 5.19 × 10(-6), Region 5: rs13172201, P = 0.041 and PConditional = 2.04 × 10(-6); and Region 6: rs10069690, P = 7.49 × 10(-15) and PConditional = 5.35 × 10(-7)) and one in the neighboring CLPTM1L gene (Region 2: rs451360; P = 1.90 × 10(-18) and PConditional = 7.06 × 10(-16)). Between three and five cancers mapped to each independent locus with both risk-enhancing and protective effects. Allele-specific effects on DNA methylation were seen for a subset of risk loci, indicating that methylation and subsequent effects on gene expression may contribute to the biology of risk variants on 5p15.33. Our results provide strong support for extensive pleiotropy across this region of 5p15.33, to an extent not previously observed in other cancer susceptibility loci.
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
- Newton-Cheh, Christopher, et al.
(författare)
-
Genome-wide association study identifies eight loci associated with blood pressure
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 41:6, s. 666-676
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Elevated blood pressure is a common, heritable cause of cardiovascular disease worldwide. To date, identification of common genetic variants influencing blood pressure has proven challenging. We tested 2.5 million genotyped and imputed SNPs for association with systolic and diastolic blood pressure in 34,433 subjects of European ancestry from the Global BPgen consortium and followed up findings with direct genotyping (N <= 71,225 European ancestry, N <= 12,889 Indian Asian ancestry) and in silico comparison (CHARGE consortium, N 29,136). We identified association between systolic or diastolic blood pressure and common variants in eight regions near the CYP17A1 (P = 7 x 10(-24)), CYP1A2 (P = 1 x 10(-23)), FGF5 (P = 1 x 10(-21)), SH2B3 (P = 3 x 10(-18)), MTHFR (P = 2 x 10(-13)), c10orf107 (P = 1 x 10(-9)), ZNF652 (P = 5 x 10(-9)) and PLCD3 (P = 1 x 10(-8)) genes. All variants associated with continuous blood pressure were associated with dichotomous hypertension. These associations between common variants and blood pressure and hypertension offer mechanistic insights into the regulation of blood pressure and may point to novel targets for interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease.
|
|
| 7. |
- Key, T. J., et al.
(författare)
-
Circulating sex hormones and breast cancer risk factors in postmenopausal women: reanalysis of 13 studies
- 2011
-
Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1532-1827 .- 0007-0920. ; 105:5, s. 709-722
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Breast cancer risk for postmenopausal women is positively associated with circulating concentrations of oestrogens and androgens, but the determinants of these hormones are not well understood. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of breast cancer risk factors and circulating hormone concentrations in more than 6000 postmenopausal women controls in 13 prospective studies. RESULTS: Concentrations of all hormones were lower in older than younger women, with the largest difference for dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), whereas sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) was higher in the older women. Androgens were lower in women with bilateral ovariectomy than in naturally postmenopausal women, with the largest difference for free testosterone. All hormones were higher in obese than lean women, with the largest difference for free oestradiol, whereas SHBG was lower in obese women. Smokers of 15+ cigarettes per day had higher levels of all hormones than non-smokers, with the largest difference for testosterone. Drinkers of 20+ g alcohol per day had higher levels of all hormones, but lower SHBG, than non-drinkers, with the largest difference for DHEAS. Hormone concentrations were not strongly related to age at menarche, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy or family history of breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Sex hormone concentrations were strongly associated with several established or suspected risk factors for breast cancer, and may mediate the effects of these factors on breast cancer risk. British Journal of Cancer (2011) 105, 709-722. doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.254 www.bjcancer.com Published online 19 July 2011 (C) 2011 Cancer Research UK
|
|
| 8. |
- Grote, V. A., et al.
(författare)
-
Diabetes mellitus, glycated haemoglobin and C-peptide levels in relation to pancreatic cancer risk : a study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Diabetologia. - New York : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0012-186X .- 1432-0428. ; 54:12, s. 3037-3046
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims/hypothesis: There has been long-standing debate about whether diabetes is a causal risk factor for pancreatic cancer or a consequence of tumour development. Prospective epidemiological studies have shown variable relationships between pancreatic cancer risk and blood markers of glucose and insulin metabolism, overall and as a function of lag times between marker measurements (blood donation) and date of tumour diagnosis.Methods: Pre-diagnostic levels of HbA(1c) and C-peptide were measured for 466 participants with pancreatic cancer and 466 individually matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs for pancreatic cancer.Results: Pancreatic cancer risk gradually increased with increasing pre-diagnostic HbA(1c) levels up to an OR of 2.42 (95% CI 1.33, 4.39 highest [>= 6.5%, 48 mmol/mol] vs lowest [<= 5.4%, 36 mmol/mol] category), even for individuals with HbA(1c) levels within the non-diabetic range. C-peptide levels showed no significant relationship with pancreatic cancer risk, irrespective of fasting status. Analyses showed no clear trends towards increasing hyperglycaemia (as marked by HbA(1c) levels) or reduced pancreatic beta cell responsiveness (as marked by C-peptide levels) with decreasing time intervals from blood donation to cancer diagnosis.Conclusions/interpretation: Our data on HbA(1c) show that individuals who develop exocrine pancreatic cancer tend to have moderate increases in HbA(1c) levels, relatively independently of obesity and insulin resistance-the classic and major risk factors for type 2 diabetes. While there is no strong difference by lag time, more data are needed on this in order to reach a firm conclusion.
|
|
| 9. |
- Grote, V. A., et al.
(författare)
-
Inflammation marker and risk of pancreatic cancer: A nested case-control study within the EPIC cohort
- 2012
-
Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 106, s. 1866-1874
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Established risk factors for pancreatic cancer include smoking, long-standing diabetes, high body fatness, and chronic pancreatitis, all of which can be characterised by aspects of inflammatory processes. However, prospective studies investigating the relation between inflammatory markers and pancreatic cancer risk are scarce. Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, measuring prediagnostic blood levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and soluble receptors of tumour necrosis factor-α (sTNF-R1, R2) in 455 pancreatic cancer cases and 455 matched controls. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression models. Results: None of the inflammatory markers were significantly associated with risk of pancreatic cancer overall, although a borderline significant association was observed for higher circulating sTNF-R2 (crude OR=1.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97-2.39), highest vs lowest quartile). In women, however, higher sTNF-R1 levels were significantly associated with risk of pancreatic cancer (crude OR=1.97 (95% CI 1.02-3.79)). For sTNF-R2, risk associations seemed to be stronger for diabetic individuals and those with a higher BMI. Conclusion: Prospectively, CRP and IL-6 do not seem to have a role in our study with respect to risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas sTNF-R1 seemed to be a risk factor in women and sTNF-R2 might be a mediator in the risk relationship between overweight and diabetes with pancreatic cancer. Further large prospective studies are needed to clarify the role of proinflammatory proteins and cytokines in the pathogenesis of exocrine pancreatic cancer. © 2012 Cancer Research UK.
|
|
| 10. |
- Besson, H., et al.
(författare)
-
A cross-sectional analysis of physical activity and obesity indicators in European participants of the EPIC-PANACEA study
- 2009
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Obesity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5497 .- 0307-0565. ; 33:4, s. 497-506
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: Cross-sectional data suggest a strong association between low levels of physical activity and obesity. The EPIC-PANACEA ( European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Cessation of Smoking, Eating out of home And obesity) project was designed to investigate the associations between physical activity and body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference based on individual data collected across nine European countries. Methods: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition ( EPIC), 519 931 volunteers were recruited between 1992 and 2000, of whom 405 819 had data on main variables of interest. Height, body weight and waist circumference were measured using standardized procedures. Physical activity was assessed using a validated four-category index reflecting a self-reported usual activity during work and leisure time. The associations between physical activity and BMI and waist circumference were estimated using multilevel mixed effects linear regression models, adjusted for age, total energy intake, smoking status, alcohol consumption and educational level. Results: A total of 125 629 men and 280 190 women with a mean age of 52.9 (s.d. 9.7) and 51.5 (s.d. 10.0) years, respectively were included. The mean BMI was 26.6 kg/m(2) (s.d. 3.6) in men and 25.0 kg/m(2) (s.d. 4.5) in women. Fifty percent of men and 30% of women were categorized as being active or moderately active. A one-category difference in the physical activity index was inversely associated with a difference of 0.18 kg/m(2) in the mean BMI (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.11, 0.24) and 1.04-cm (95% CI 0.82, 1.26) difference in waist circumference in men. The equivalent figures for women were 0.31 kg/m(2) (95% CI 0.23, 0.38) and 0.90 cm ( 95% CI 0.71, 1.08), respectively. Conclusions: Physical activity is inversely associated with both BMI and waist circumference across nine European countries. Although we cannot interpret the association causally, our results were observed in a large and diverse cohort independently from many potential confounders.
|
|
