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- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 2. |
- Vono, Maxime, et al.
(författare)
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A Fully Bayesian Approach for Inferring Physical Properties with Credibility Intervals from Noisy Astronomical Data
- 2019
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Ingår i: 2019 10TH WORKSHOP ON HYPERSPECTRAL IMAGING AND SIGNAL PROCESSING - EVOLUTION IN REMOTE SENSING (WHISPERS). - 2158-6268. - 9781728152943
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The atoms and molecules of interstellar clouds emit photons when passing from an excited state to a lower energy state. The resulting emission lines can be detected by telescopes in the different wavelength domains (radio, infrared, visible, UV...). Through the excitation and chemical conditions they reveal, these lines provide key constraints on the local physical conditions reigning in giant molecular clouds (GMCs), which constitute the birthplace of stars in galaxies. Inferring these physical conditions from observed maps of GMCs using complex astrophysical models of these regions remains a complicated challenge due to potentially degenerate solutions and widely varying signal-to-noise ratios over the map. We propose a Bayesian framework to infer the probability distributions associated to each of these physical parameters, taking a spatial smoothness prior into account to tackle the challenge of low signal-to-noise ratio regions of the observed maps. A numerical astrophysical model of the cloud is involved in the likelihood within an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method. This enables to both infer point-wise estimators (e.g., minimum mean square or maximum a posteriori) and quantify the uncertainty associated to the estimation process. The benefits of the proposed approach are illustrated based on noisy synthetic observation maps.
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