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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Emerging Risk Factors, Collaboration, et al.
(författare)
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The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases
- 2007
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Ingår i: Eur J Epidemiol. - 0393-2990. ; 22:12, s. 839-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.
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| 5. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 6. |
- Manini, T. M., et al.
(författare)
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Identification of Sarcopenia Components That Discriminate Slow Walking Speed: A Pooled Data Analysis
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. - : Wiley. - 0002-8614 .- 1532-5415. ; 68:7, s. 1419-1428
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND The Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (SDOC) sought to identify cut points for muscle strength and body composition measures derived from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) that discriminate older adults with slow walking speed. This article presents the core analyses used to guide the SDOC position statements. DESIGN Cross-sectional data analyses of pooled data. SETTING University-based research assessment centers. PARTICIPANTS Community-dwelling men (n = 13,652) and women: (n = 5,115) with information on lean mass by DXA, grip strength (GR), and walking speed. MEASUREMENTS Thirty-five candidate sarcopenia variables were entered into sex-stratified classification and regression tree (CART) models to agnostically choose variables and cut points that discriminate slow walkers (<0.80 m/s). Models with alternative walking speed outcomes were also evaluated (<0.60 and <1.0 m/s and walking speed treated continuously). RESULTS CART models identified GR/body mass index (GRBMI) and GR/total body fat (GRTBF) as the primary discriminating variables for slowness in men and women, respectively. Men with GRBMI of 1.05 kg/kg/m(2)or less were approximately four times more likely to be slow walkers than those with GRBMI of greater than 1.05 kg/kg/m(2). Women with GRTBF of less than 0.65 kg/kg were twice as likely to be slow walkers than women with GRTBF of 0.65 kg/kg or greater. Models with alternative walking speed outcomes selected only functions of GR as primary discriminators of slowness in both men and women. DXA-derived lean mass measures did not consistently discriminate slow walkers. CONCLUSION GR with and without adjustments for body size and composition consistently discriminated older adults with slowness. CART models did not select DXA-based lean mass as a primary discriminator of slowness. These results were presented to an SDOC Consensus Panel, who used them and other information to develop the SDOC Position Statements.
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| 7. |
- Wormser, David, et al.
(författare)
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Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people : individual participant meta-analysis
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 41:5, s. 1419-1433
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundThe extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain.MethodsWe calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies.ResultsFor people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators.ConclusionAdult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
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| 8. |
- Cawthon, P. M., et al.
(författare)
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Putative Cut-Points in Sarcopenia Components and Incident Adverse Health Outcomes: AnSDOCAnalysis
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. - : Wiley. - 0002-8614 .- 1532-5415. ; 68:7, s. 1429-1437
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES Analyses performed by the Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (SDOC) identified cut-points in several metrics of grip strength for consideration in a definition of sarcopenia. We describe the associations between the SDOC-identified metrics of low grip strength (absolute or standardized to body size/composition); low dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) lean mass as previously defined in the literature (appendicular lean mass [ALM]/ht(2)); and slowness (walking speed <.8 m/s) with subsequent adverse outcomes (falls, hip fractures, mobility limitation, and mortality). DESIGN Individual-level, sex-stratified pooled analysis. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) for incident falls, mobility limitation, hip fractures, and mortality. Follow-up time ranged from 1 year for falls to 8.8 +/- 2.3 years for mortality. SETTING Eight prospective observational cohort studies. PARTICIPANTS A total of 13,421 community-dwelling men and 4,828 community-dwelling women. MEASUREMENTS Grip strength by hand dynamometry, gait speed, and lean mass by DXA. RESULTS Low grip strength (absolute or standardized to body size/composition) was associated with incident outcomes, usually independently of slowness, in both men and women. ORs and HRs generally ranged from 1.2 to 3.0 for those below vs above the cut-point. DXA lean mass was not consistently associated with these outcomes. When considered together, those who had both muscle weakness by absolute grip strength (<35.5 kg in men and <20 kg in women) and slowness were consistently more likely to have a fall, hip fracture, mobility limitation, or die than those without either slowness or muscle weakness. CONCLUSION Older men and women with both muscle weakness and slowness have a higher likelihood of adverse health outcomes. These results support the inclusion of grip strength and walking speed as components in a summary definition of sarcopenia.
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| 9. |
- Cawthon, Peggy M, et al.
(författare)
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What Cut-Point in Gait Speed Best Discriminates Community-Dwelling Older Adults With Mobility Complaints From Those Without? A Pooled Analysis From the Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium.
- 2021
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Ingår i: The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1758-535X .- 1079-5006. ; 76:10, s. e321-e327
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cut-points to define slow walking speed have largely been derived from expert opinion.Study participants (13 589 men and 5043 women aged ≥65years) had walking speed (m/s) measured over 4-6 m (mean ± SD: 1.20 ± 0.27 m/s in men and 0.94 ± 0.24 m/s in women.) Mobility limitation was defined as any self-reported difficulty with walking approximately 1/4 mile (prevalence: 12.6% men, 26.4% women). Sex-stratified classification and regression tree (CART) models with 10-fold cross-validation identified walking speed cut-points that optimally discriminated those who reported mobility limitation from those who did not.Among 5043 women, CART analysis identified 2 cut-points, classifying 4144 (82.2%) with walking speed ≥0.75 m/s, which we labeled as "fast"; 478 (9.5%) as "intermediate" (walking speed ≥0.62 m/s but <0.75 m/s); and 421 (8.3%) as "slow" (walking speed <0.62 m/s). Among 13 589 men, CART analysis identified 3 cut-points, classifying 10 001 (73.6%) with walking speed ≥1.00 m/s ("very fast"); 2901 (21.3%) as "fast" (walking speed ≥0.74 m/s but <1.00 m/s); 497 (3.7%) as "intermediate" (walking speed ≥0.57 m/s but <0.74 m/s); and 190 (1.4%) as "slow" (walking speed <0.57 m/s). Prevalence of self-reported mobility limitation was lowest in the "fast" or "very fast" (11% for men and 19% for women) and highest in the "slow" (60.5% in men and 71.0% in women). Rounding the 2 slower cut-points to 0.60 m/s and 0.75 m/s reclassified very few participants.Cut-points in walking speed of approximately 0.60 m/s and 0.75 m/s discriminate those with self-reported mobility limitation from those without.
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