| 1. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Adrianto, Indra, et al.
(författare)
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Association of a functional variant downstream of TNFAIP3 with systemic lupus erythematosus
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 43:3, s. 253-258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE, MIM152700) is an autoimmune disease characterized by self-reactive antibodies resulting in systemic inflammation and organ failure. TNFAIP3, encoding the ubiquitin-modifying enzyme A20, is an established susceptibility locus for SLE. By fine mapping and genomic re-sequencing in ethnically diverse populations, we fully characterized the TNFAIP3 risk haplotype and identified a TT>A polymorphic dinucleotide (deletion T followed by a T to A transversion) associated with SLE in subjects of European (P = 1.58 x 10(-8), odds ratio = 1.70) and Korean (P = 8.33 x 10(-10), odds ratio = 2.54) ancestry. This variant, located in a region of high conservation and regulatory potential, bound a nuclear protein complex composed of NF-kappa B subunits with reduced avidity. Further, compared with the non-risk haplotype, the haplotype carrying this variant resulted in reduced TNFAIP3 mRNA and A20 protein expression. These results establish this TT>A variant as the most likely functional polymorphism responsible for the association between TNFAIP3 and SLE.
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| 3. |
- Almeida-Brasil, Celline C., et al.
(författare)
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Flares after hydroxychloroquine reduction or discontinuation : results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort
- 2022
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Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 81:3, s. 370-378
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: To evaluate systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares following hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) reduction or discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. METHODS: We analysed prospective data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) cohort, enrolled from 33 sites within 15 months of SLE diagnosis and followed annually (1999-2019). We evaluated person-time contributed while on the initial HCQ dose ('maintenance'), comparing this with person-time contributed after a first dose reduction, and after a first HCQ discontinuation. We estimated time to first flare, defined as either subsequent need for therapy augmentation, increase of ≥4 points in the SLE Disease Activity Index-2000, or hospitalisation for SLE. We estimated adjusted HRs (aHRs) with 95% CIs associated with reducing/discontinuing HCQ (vs maintenance). We also conducted separate multivariable hazard regressions in each HCQ subcohort to identify factors associated with flare. RESULTS: We studied 1460 (90% female) patients initiating HCQ. aHRs for first SLE flare were 1.20 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.38) and 1.56 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.86) for the HCQ reduction and discontinuation groups, respectively, versus HCQ maintenance. Patients with low educational level were at particular risk of flaring after HCQ discontinuation (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.87). Prednisone use at time-zero was associated with over 1.5-fold increase in flare risk in all HCQ subcohorts. CONCLUSIONS: SLE flare risk was higher after HCQ taper/discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. Decisions to maintain, reduce or stop HCQ may affect specific subgroups differently, including those on prednisone and/or with low education. Further study of special groups (eg, seniors) may be helpful.
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| 4. |
- Almeida-Brasil, Celline C., et al.
(författare)
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Retinal toxicity in a multinational inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus on hydroxychloroquine
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lupus Science and Medicine. - : BMJ. - 2053-8790. ; 9:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective To evaluate hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)-related retinal toxicity in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort. Methods Data were collected at annual study visits between 1999 and 2019. We followed patients with incident SLE from first visit on HCQ (time zero) up to time of retinal toxicity (outcome), death, loss-to-follow-up or end of study. Potential retinal toxicity was identified from SLICC Damage Index scores; cases were confirmed with chart review. Using cumulative HCQ duration as the time axis, we constructed univariate Cox regression models to assess if covariates (ie, HCQ daily dose/kg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at SLE onset, education, body mass index, renal damage, chloroquine use) were associated with HCQ-related retinal toxicity. Results We studied 1460 patients (89% female, 52% white). Retinal toxicity was confirmed in 11 patients (incidence 1.0 per 1000 person-years, 0.8% overall). Average cumulative time on HCQ in those with retinal toxicity was 7.4 (SD 3.2) years; the first case was detected 4 years after HCQ initiation. Risk of retinal toxicity was numerically higher in older patients at SLE diagnosis (univariate HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09). Conclusions This is the first assessment of HCQ and retinal disease in incident SLE. We did not see any cases of retinopathy within the first 4 years of HCQ. Cumulative HCQ may be associated with increased risk. Ophthalmology monitoring (and formal assessment of cases of potential toxicity, by a retinal specialist) remains important, especially in patients on HCQ for 10+ years, those needing higher doses and those of older age at SLE diagnosis.
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| 5. |
- Barber, Megan R.W., et al.
(författare)
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Economic Evaluation of Damage Accrual in an International Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Inception Cohort Using a Multistate Model Approach
- 2020
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Ingår i: Arthritis Care and Research. - : Wiley. - 2151-464X .- 2151-4658. ; 72:12, s. 1800-1808
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: There is a paucity of data regarding health care costs associated with damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus. The present study was undertaken to describe costs associated with damage states across the disease course using multistate modeling. Methods: Patients from 33 centers in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort within 15 months of diagnosis. Annual data on demographics, disease activity, damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), hospitalizations, medications, dialysis, and selected procedures were collected. Ten-year cumulative costs (Canadian dollars) were estimated by multiplying annual costs associated with each SDI state by the expected state duration using a multistate model. Results: A total of 1,687 patients participated; 88.7% were female, 49.0% were white, mean ± SD age at diagnosis was 34.6 ± 13.3 years, and mean time to follow-up was 8.9 years (range 0.6–18.5 years). Mean annual costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores as follows: $22,006 (Canadian) (95% confidence interval [95% CI] $16,662, $27,350) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $1,833 (95% CI $1,134, $2,532) for SDI scores of 0. Similarly, 10-year cumulative costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores at the beginning of the 10-year interval as follows: $189,073 (Canadian) (95% CI $142,318, $235,827) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $21,713 (95% CI $13,639, $29,788) for SDI scores of 0. Conclusion: Patients with the highest SDI scores incur 10-year cumulative costs that are ~9-fold higher than those with the lowest SDI scores. By estimating the damage trajectory and incorporating annual costs, data on damage can be used to estimate future costs, which is critical knowledge for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of novel therapies.
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| 6. |
- Bergenzaun, Lill, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing left ventricular systolic function in shock : evaluation of echocardiographic parameters in intensive care
- 2011
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Ingår i: Critical Care. - : BioMed Central. - 1364-8535 .- 1466-609X. ; 15:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- INTRODUCTION: Assessing left ventricular (LV) systolic function in a rapid and reliable way can be challenging in the critically ill patient. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and reliability of, as well as the association between, commonly used LV systolic parameters, by using serial transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). METHODS: Fifty patients with shock and mechanical ventilation were included. TTE examinations were performed daily for a total of 7 days. Methods used to assess LV systolic function were visually estimated, "eyeball" ejection fraction (EBEF), the Simpson single-plane method, mean atrioventricular plane displacement (AVPDm), septal tissue velocity imaging (TDIs), and velocity time integral in the left ventricular outflow tract (VTI). RESULTS: EBEF, AVPDm, TDIs, VTI, and the Simpson were obtained in 100%, 100%, 99%, 95% and 93%, respectively, of all possible examinations. The correlations between the Simpson and EBEF showed r values for all 7 days ranging from 0.79 to 0.95 (P < 0.01). the Simpson correlations with the other LV parameters showed substantial variation over time, with the poorest results seen for TDIs and AVPDm. The repeatability was best for VTI (interobserver coefficient of variation (CV) 4.8%, and intraobserver CV, 3.1%), and AVPDm (5.3% and 4.4%, respectively), and worst for the Simpson method (8.2% and 10.6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: EBEF and AVPDm provided the best, and Simpson, the worst feasibility when assessing LV systolic function in a population of mechanically ventilated, hemodynamically unstable patients. Additionally, the Simpson showed the poorest repeatability. We suggest that EBEF can be used instead of single-plane Simpson when assessing LV ejection fraction in this category of patients. TDIs and AVPDm, as markers of longitudinal function of the LV, are not interchangeable with LV ejection fraction.
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| 7. |
- Bergenzaun, Lill, et al.
(författare)
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High-sensitive cardiac Troponin T is superior to echocardiography in predicting 1-year mortality in patients with SIRS and shock in intensive care.
- 2012
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Ingår i: BMC Anesthesiology. - : BioMed Central. - 1471-2253 .- 1471-2253. ; 12:25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Left ventricular (LV) dysfunction is well documented in the critically ill. We assessed 1-year mortality in relation to cardiac biomarkers and LV function parameters by echocardiography in patients with shock. METHODS: A prospective, observational, cohort study of 49 patients. B-natriuretic peptide (BNP), highsensitive troponin T (hsTNT) and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) were assessed within 12 h of study inclusion. LV systolic function was measured by ejection fraction (LVEF), mean atrioventricular plane displacement (AVPDm), peak systolic tissue Doppler velocity imaging (TDIs) and velocity time integral in the LV outflow tract (LVOT VTI). LV diastolic function was evaluated by transmitral pulsed Doppler (E, A, E/A, E-deceleration time), tissue Doppler indices (e, a, E/e) and left atrial volume (La volume). APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) and SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) scores were calculated. RESULTS: hsTNT was significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors (60 [17.0-99.5] vs 168 [89.8-358] ng/l, p = 0.003). Other univariate predictors of mortality were APACHE II (p = 0.009), E/e (p = 0.023), SOFA (p = 0.024) and age (p = 0.031). Survivors and nonsurvivors did not differ regarding BNP (p = 0.26) or any LV systolic function parameter (LVEF p = 0.87, AVPDm p = 0.087, TDIs p = 0.93, LVOT VTI p = 0.18). Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified hsTNT (p = 0.010) as the only independent predictor of 1-year mortality; adjusted odds ratio 2.0 (95% CI 1.2- 3.5). CONCLUSIONS: hsTNT was the only independent predictor of 1-year mortality in patients with shock. Neither BNP nor echocardiographic parameters had an independent prognostic value. Further studies are needed to establish the clinical significance of elevated hsTNT in patients in shock.
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| 8. |
- Bergenzaun, Lill, et al.
(författare)
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Mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE) in shock: a valuable echocardiographic parameter in intensive care patients : Cardiovascular Ultrasound
- 2013
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Ingår i: Cardiovascular Ultrasound. - : BioMed Central. - 1476-7120. ; 11:16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Assessing left ventricular (LV) dysfunction by echocardiography in ICU patients is common. The aim of this study was to investigate mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE) in critically ill patients with shock and its relation to LV systolic and diastolic function, myocardial injury and to outcome. METHODS: In a prospective, observational, cohort study we enrolled 50 patients with SIRS and shock despite fluid resuscitation. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) measuring LV function was performed within 12 hours after admission and daily for a 7-day observation period. TTE and laboratory measurements were related to 28-day mortality. RESULTS: MAPSE on day 1 correlated significantly with LV ejection fraction (LVEF), tissue Doppler indices of LV diastolic function (é, E/é) and high-sensitive troponin T (hsTNT) (p< 0.001, p= 0.039, p= 0.009, p= 0.003 respectively) whereas LVEF did not correlate significantly with any marker of LV diastolic function or myocardial injury. Compared to survivors, non-survivors had a significantly lower MAPSE (8 [IQR 7.5-11] versus 11 [IQR 8.9-13] mm; p= 0.028). Other univariate predictors were age (p=0.033), hsTNT (p=0.014) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores (p=0.007). By multivariate analysis MAPSE (OR 0.6 (95% CI 0.5- 0.9), p= 0.015) and SOFA score (OR 1.6 (95% CI 1.1- 2.3), p= 0.018) were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Daily measurements showed that MAPSE, as sole echocardiographic marker, was significantly lower in most days in non-survivors (p<0.05 at day 1-2, 4-6). CONCLUSIONS: MAPSE seemed to reflect LV systolic and diastolic function as well as myocardial injury in critically ill patients with shock. The combination of MAPSE and SOFA added to the predictive value for 28-day mortality.
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| 9. |
- Bernatsky, Sasha, et al.
(författare)
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Cancer risk in systemic lupus: An updated international multi-centre cohort study
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Autoimmunity. - : Elsevier BV. - 0896-8411. ; 42, s. 130-135
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. Methods: A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. Results: Across 30 centres, 16,409 patients were observed for 121,283 (average 7.4) person years. In total, 644 cancers occurred. Some cancers, notably hematologic malignancies, were substantially increased (SIR 3.02, 95% confidence interval, CI, 2.48, 3.63), particularly non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, NHL (SIR 4.39, 95% CI 3.46, 5.49) and leukemia. In addition, increased risks of cancer of the vulva (SIR 3.78, 95% CI 1.52, 7.78), lung (SIR 1.30, 95% CI 1.04, 1.60), thyroid (SIR 1.76, 95% CI 1.13, 2.61) and possibly liver (SIR 1.87, 95% CI 0.97, 3.27) were suggested. However, a decreased risk was estimated for breast (SIR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61-0.88), endometrial (SIR 0.44, 95% CI 0.23-0.77), and possibly ovarian cancers (0.64, 95% Cl 0.34-1.10). The variability of comparative rates across different cancers meant that only a small increased risk was estimated across all cancers (SIR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05, 1.23). Conclusion: These data estimate only a small increased risk in SLE (versus the general population) for cancer over-all. However, there is clearly an increased risk of NHL and cancers of the vulva, lung, thyroid, and possibly liver. It remains unclear to what extent the association with NHL is mediated by innate versus exogenous factors. Similarly, the etiology of the decreased breast, endometrial, and possibly ovarian cancer risk is uncertain, though investigations are ongoing. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 10. |
- Bernatsky, Sasha, et al.
(författare)
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Lymphoma risk in systemic lupus: effects of disease activity versus treatment
- 2014
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Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 73:1, s. 138-142
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective To examine disease activity versus treatment as lymphoma risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods We performed case-cohort analyses within a multisite SLE cohort. Cancers were ascertained by regional registry linkages. Adjusted HRs for lymphoma were generated in regression models, for time-dependent exposures to immunomodulators (cyclophosphamide, azathioprine, methotrexate, mycophenolate, antimalarial drugs, glucocorticoids) demographics, calendar year, Sjogren's syndrome, SLE duration and disease activity. We used adjusted mean SLE Disease Activity Index scores (SLEDAI-2K) over time, and drugs were treated both categorically (ever/never) and as estimated cumulative doses. Results We studied 75 patients with lymphoma (72 non-Hodgkin, three Hodgkin) and 4961 cancer-free controls. Most lymphomas were of B-cell origin. As is seen in the general population, lymphoma risk in SLE was higher in male than female patients and increased with age. Lymphomas occurred a mean of 12.4years (median 10.9) after SLE diagnosis. Unadjusted and adjusted analyses failed to show a clear association of disease activity with lymphoma risk. There was a suggestion of greater exposure to cyclophosphamide and to higher cumulative steroids in lymphoma cases than the cancer-free controls. Conclusions In this large SLE sample, there was a suggestion of higher lymphoma risk with exposure to cyclophosphamide and high cumulative steroids. Disease activity itself was not clearly associated with lymphoma risk. Further work will focus on genetic profiles that might interact with medication exposure to influence lymphoma risk in SLE.
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