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- Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Operational guide: Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks
- 2017
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Dengue outbreaks threaten the stability of national health systems worldwide. Every year, late detection and inadequate response mechanisms compound the effects of rapid dengue transmission. Although outbreak alert indicators exist, the means to deploy them in early warning systems is often lacking. Within this context, a programme led by TDR, the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases, conducted multi-country research into alarm signals for outbreaks and their use within early warning systems. In line with the prevailing literature, alarm variables such as probable dengue cases, mean temperature (and, to a lesser extent, rainfall and humidity) all evidenced predictive abilities. However, it was clear that countries lacked the requisite skills and resources to deploy these alarm signals in a predictive, operational way. It was on this basis that an accessible, adaptable and user-friendly early warning system was developed. The aim of the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for Dengue Outbreaks: operational guide is to provide programme managers with a user friendly tool that can: (i) analyse and draw conclusions from historic dengue datasets; (ii) identify appropriate alarm indicators that can sensitively and specifically predict forthcoming outbreaks at smaller spatial scales; and (iii) use these results and analyses to predict and build an early warning system to detect dengue outbreaks in real-time. Together, these three components build technical capacity and provide a standardized methodology for predicting dengue outbreaks in countries where skills and resources are currently constrained. This guide was produced by TDR together with the World Health Organization’s Neglected Tropical Diseases (WHO/NTD) and WHO regional offices in the context of a European Union-financed research programme, the International Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment, Management and Surveillance (IDAMS), to develop an evidence-based, early warning system for outbreak detection and management of dengue fever outbreaks.
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- Petzold, Max, 1973
(författare)
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A comprative study of some approaches for constructing tolerance limits
- 2000
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In a dose finding study the aim is to come up with a safe and efficient drug administration. By comparing the obtained tolerance limits with predetermined desired concentration limits, i.e. the therapeutic window, one may be able to adjust the drug dosage. For drugs with a therapeutic window situated at high concentrations close to toxic levels, one has to balance between attaining a high proportion of the population at efficient high levels on one hand and the risks of an overdose on the other hand. In such cases it is important to use the proper estimation approach for the upper tolerance limit. Here a conservative estimation approach intended for a drug with potentially adverse side effects with minor overdoses is compared with an approach intended for a drug with harmless side effects. It is shown that the conservative approach can be considerably less efficient when used in the latter case, a disadvantage that is rarely discussed when proposing conservative estimators. The properties of the two approaches are evaluated using well-known parametric and non-parametric estimators in a simulation study for small and moderate sample sizes.
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- Petzold, Max, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Maximum Likelihood Ratio based small- sample tests for random coefficients in linear regression
- 2003
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Two small-sample tests for random coefficients in linear regression are derived from the Maximum Likelihood Ratio. The first test has previously been proposed for testing equality of fixed effects, but is here shown to be suitable also for random coefficients. The second test is based on the multiple coefficient of determination from regressing the observed subject means on the estimated slopes. The properties and relations of the tests are examined in detail, followed by a simulation study of the power functions. The two tests are found to complement each other depending on the study design: The first test is preferred for a large number of observations from a small number of subjects, and the second test is preferred for the opposite situation. Finally, the robustness of the tests to violations of the distributional assumptions is examined.
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