| 1. |
- Anandhi, Aavudai, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of Climate Model Performance for Water Supply Studies : Case Study for New York City
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of water resources planning and management. - : ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS. - 0733-9496 .- 1943-5452. ; 145:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evaluating the suitability of data from global climate models (GCMs) for use as input in water supply models is an important step in the larger task of evaluating the effects of climate change on water resources management such as that of water supply operations. The purpose of this paper is to present the process by which GCMs were evaluated and incorporated into the New York City (NYC) water supply's planning activities and to provide conclusions regarding the overall effectiveness of the ranking procedure used in the evaluation. A suite of GCMs participating in Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were evaluated for use in climate change projections in the watersheds of the NYC water supply that provide 90% of the water consumed by NYC. GCM data were aggregated using the seven land-grid points surrounding NYC watersheds, and these data with a daily timestep were evaluated seasonally using probability-based skill scores for various combinations of five meteorological variables (precipitation, average, maximum and minimum temperatures, and wind speed). These are the key variables for the NYC water supply because they affect the timing and magnitude of water, energy, sediment, and nutrient fluxes into the reservoirs as well as in simulating watershed hydrology and reservoir hydrodynamics. We attempted to choose a subset of GCMs based on the average of several skill metrics that compared baseline (20C3M) GCM results to observations. Skill metrics for the study indicate that the skill in simulating the frequency distributions of measured data is highest for temperature and lowest for wind. However, our attempts to identify the best model or subgroup of models were not successful because we found that no single model performs best when considering all of the variables and seasons.
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| 2. |
- Ayala, Ana I., et al.
(författare)
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GLOBAL WARMING WILL CHANGE THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF LOUGH FEEAGH, A SENTINEL LAKE IN THE IRISH LANDSCAPE, BY THE END OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
- 2023
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Ingår i: Biology and Environment (Dublin). - : Project MUSE/Royal irish academy. - 0791-7945 .- 2009-003X. ; 123B:3, s. 147-165
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent developments in impact modelling of global warming on lakes have resulted in a greater understanding of how these vital ecosystems are likely to respond. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of this in an Irish context, despite the importance of lakes in the island's landscape. Here, we explore the impact of global warming on the hydrodynamics and thermal structure of a sentinel Irish lake under future climate scenarios. A 1D lake model, Simstrat, was calibrated and validated using water temperature data collected from Lough Feeagh, a site of long-term ecological research in the west of Ireland. Once validated, the model was then driven by daily climate model projections to generate informative thermal metrics for the time period of 2006-2099. Despite the moderating influence of the Atlantic, projections indicate that global warming will have a marked effect on the thermal structure of Feeagh, with surface water temperatures set to warm by 0.75 degrees C under a more stringent mitigation pathway (RCP 2.6) and 2.42 degrees C under a non-mitigation pathway (RCP 8.5).While warming was projected to be greatest in summer in the epilimnion, winter warming was greater than in other seasons in the hypolimnion. Stratification is projected to become more stable and earlier, and the growing season to be longer by 11 to 47 days, depending on mitigation pathways. Future studies could use a similar modelling workflow to investigate the possible implications of global warming on other Irish lakes, particularly those of specific societal importance or those of conservation interest.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Brentrup, Jennifer A., et al.
(författare)
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The potential of high-frequency profiling to assess vertical and seasonal patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in lakes : an extension of the Plankton Ecology Group (PEG) model
- 2016
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Ingår i: Inland Waters. - 2044-2041 .- 2044-205X. ; 6:4, s. 565-580
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of high-frequency sensors on profiling buoys to investigate physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes is increasing rapidly. Profiling buoys with automated winches and sensors that collect high-frequency chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) profiles in 11 lakes in the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) allowed the study of the vertical and temporal distribution of ChlF, including the formation of subsurface chlorophyll maxima (SSCM). The effectiveness of 3 methods for sampling phytoplankton distributions in lakes, including (1) manual profiles, (2) single-depth buoys, and (3) profiling buoys were assessed. High-frequency ChlF surface data and profiles were compared to predictions from the Plankton Ecology Group (PEG) model. The depth-integrated ChlF dynamics measured by the profiling buoy data revealed a greater complexity that neither conventional sampling nor the generalized PEG model captured. Conventional sampling techniques would have missed SSCM in 7 of 11 study lakes. Although surface-only ChlF data underestimated average water column ChlF, at times by nearly 2-fold in 4 of the lakes, overall there was a remarkable similarity between surface and mean water column data. Contrary to the PEG model's proposed negligible role for physical control of phytoplankton during the growing season, thermal structure and light availability were closely associated with ChlF seasonal depth distribution. Thus, an extension of the PEG model is proposed, with a new conceptual framework that explicitly includes physical metrics to better predict SSCM formation in lakes and highlight when profiling buoys are especially informative.
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| 5. |
- Cremona, Fabien, et al.
(författare)
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Numerical Exploration of the Planktonic to Benthic Primary Production Ratios in Lakes of the Baltic Sea Catchment
- 2016
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Ingår i: Ecosystems (New York. Print). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 19:8, s. 1386-1400
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Autotrophic structure refers to the partitioning of whole-ecosystem primary production between benthic and planktonic primary producers. Autotrophic structure remains poorly understood especially because of the paucity of estimates regarding benthic primary production. We used a conceptual model for numerically exploring the autotrophic structure of 13 hemiboreal lakes situated in the Baltic Sea catchment. We also used diel variations in primary production profiles to graphically evaluate levels of light and/or nutrient limitation in lakes. The input morphometric data, light extinction coefficients and dissolved carbon parameters were mostly obtained from in situ measurements. Results revealed that cross- and within-lake autotrophic structure varied greatly: one lake was clearly dominated by benthic production, and three lakes by phytoplankton production. In the rest, phytoplankton production was generally dominant but switch to benthic dominance was possible. The modelled primary production profiles varied according to lake water clarity and bathymetry. Our results clearly indicate that the relative contribution of benthic primary production to whole-lake primary production should be taken into account in studies about hemiboreal and boreal lakes.
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| 6. |
- Donis, Daphne, et al.
(författare)
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Stratification strength and light climate explain variation in chlorophyll a at the continental scale in a European multilake survey in a heatwave summer
- 2021
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Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 66:12, s. 4314-4333
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To determine the drivers of phytoplankton biomass, we collected standardized morphometric, physical, and biological data in 230 lakes across the Mediterranean, Continental, and Boreal climatic zones of the European continent. Multilinear regression models tested on this snapshot of mostly eutrophic lakes (median total phosphorus [TP] = 0.06 and total nitrogen [TN] = 0.7 mg L-1), and its subsets (2 depth types and 3 climatic zones), show that light climate and stratification strength were the most significant explanatory variables for chlorophyll a (Chl a) variance. TN was a significant predictor for phytoplankton biomass for shallow and continental lakes, while TP never appeared as an explanatory variable, suggesting that under high TP, light, which partially controls stratification strength, becomes limiting for phytoplankton development. Mediterranean lakes were the warmest yet most weakly stratified and had significantly less Chl a than Boreal lakes, where the temperature anomaly from the long-term average, during a summer heatwave was the highest (+4 degrees C) and showed a significant, exponential relationship with stratification strength. This European survey represents a summer snapshot of phytoplankton biomass and its drivers, and lends support that light and stratification metrics, which are both affected by climate change, are better predictors for phytoplankton biomass in nutrient-rich lakes than nutrient concentrations and surface temperature.
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| 7. |
- Doubek, Jonathan P., et al.
(författare)
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The extent and variability of storm-induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long-term and high-frequency data
- 2021
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Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 66:5, s. 1979-1992
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The intensity and frequency of storms are projected to increase in many regions of the world because of climate change. Storms can alter environmental conditions in many ecosystems. In lakes and reservoirs, storms can reduce epilimnetic temperatures from wind-induced mixing with colder hypolimnetic waters, direct precipitation to the lake's surface, and watershed runoff. We analyzed 18 long-term and high-frequency lake datasets from 11 countries to assess the magnitude of wind- vs. rainstorm-induced changes in epilimnetic temperature. We found small day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreases in response to strong wind and heavy rain during stratified conditions. Day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreased, on average, by 0.28 degrees C during the strongest windstorms (storm mean daily wind speed among lakes: 6.7 +/- 2.7 m s(-1), 1 SD) and by 0.15 degrees C after the heaviest rainstorms (storm mean daily rainfall: 21.3 +/- 9.0 mm). The largest decreases in epilimnetic temperature were observed >= 2 d after sustained strong wind or heavy rain (top 5(th) percentile of wind and rain events for each lake) in shallow and medium-depth lakes. The smallest decreases occurred in deep lakes. Epilimnetic temperature change from windstorms, but not rainstorms, was negatively correlated with maximum lake depth. However, even the largest storm-induced mean epilimnetic temperature decreases were typically <2 degrees C. Day-to-day temperature change, in the absence of storms, often exceeded storm-induced temperature changes. Because storm-induced temperature changes to lake surface waters were minimal, changes in other limnological variables (e.g., nutrient concentrations or light) from storms may have larger impacts on biological communities than temperature changes.
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| 8. |
- Engel, Fabian, et al.
(författare)
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Phytoplankton gross primary production increases along cascading impoundments in a temperate, low-discharge river : Insights from high frequency water quality monitoring
- 2019
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Damming alters carbon processing along river continua. Estimating carbon transport along rivers intersected by multiple dams requires an understanding of the effects of cascading impoundments on the riverine metabolism. We analyzed patterns of riverine metabolism and phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a; Chla) along a 74.4-km river reach intersected by six low-head navigation dams. Calculating gross primary production (GPP) from continuous measurements of dissolved oxygen concentration, we found a maximum increase in the mean GPP by a factor of 3.5 (absolute difference of 0.45 g C m−3 d−1) along the first 26.5 km of the study reach, while Chla increased over the entire reach by a factor of 2.9 (8.7 µg l−1). In the intermittently stratified section of the deepest impoundment the mean GPP between the 1 and 4 m water layer differed by a factor of 1.4 (0.31 g C m−3 d−1). Due to the strong increase in GPP, the river featured a wide range of conditions characteristic of low- to medium-production rivers. We suggest that cascading impoundments have the potential to stimulate riverine GPP, and conclude that phytoplankton CO2 uptake is an important carbon flux in the river Saar, where a considerable amount of organic matter is of autochthonous origin.
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| 9. |
- Engel, Fabian
(författare)
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The role of freshwater phytoplankton in the global carbon cycle
- 2020
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Water flowing through the landscape transports chemical substances including carbon. Along the way from upland soils to the ocean, carbon is transformed from organic carbon into inorganic carbon and vice versa. One such carbon transformation process is the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the water phase by phytoplankton. For some inland waters, it has been shown that phytoplankton can significantly reduce the amount of CO2 (measured as partial pressure of CO2, pCO2) in the water phase. However, the importance of this process for carbon budgets on a regional and global scale is not yet known.The aim of this thesis was to investigate the importance of CO2 uptake by phytoplankton for CO2 dynamics in lakes and rivers on a regional and global scale, and to explain its spatial variation. Conceptual models and the analysis of monitoring data together with statistical modeling and meta-analyses were used.Combining a conceptual lake model for carbon transformation with a mass balance approach showed that gross primary production in lakes is an important flux in the global dissolved inorganic carbon budget of inland waters. In a next step, a simple proxy to assess the phytoplankton influence on the pCO2 in individual lakes and rivers was tested and applied on a regional and global scale. The analysis showed that a significant pCO2 reduction by phytoplankton could be expected in about 20% to 40% of lakes in the temperate and sub-/tropical region. In 9% of the Swedish lakes analyzed, the proxy indicated a significant pCO2 reduction by phytoplankton during summer. The pCO2 can also be significantly reduced by phytoplankton in rivers, and such a reduction might occur in about 20% of the temperate rivers on Earth. In a temperate river that was studied in more detail, consecutive impoundments were found to stimulate phytoplankton production, which might be one explanation for a greater phytoplankton influence on the pCO2 in such systems.Taken together, these results suggest that CO2 uptake by phytoplankton is a significant flux in the global CO2 budget of inland waters. The importance of CO2 uptake by phytoplankton for CO2 dynamics in individual lakes and rivers was predictable by easily available water physico-chemical and biological variables and varied widely in relation to environmental conditions.
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| 10. |
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