| 1. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, 1957, et al.
(författare)
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En ekonomisk utvärdering av inverkan av marknära ozon på växtligheten i Sverige
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Med finansiering från Naturvårdsverket har forskare från IVL, SMHI, Göteborgs Universitet samt SLU genomfört en analys av de ekonomiska värdena av den negativa inverkan av marknära ozon på växtligheten i Sverige vid olika scenarier för ozonbelastning och i relation till föreslagna målvärden vad gäller preciseringen för ozon och växtlighet inom miljömålet Frisk Luft. Arbetet utgör i stor utsträckning en uppdatering av en tidigare studie från 2006 (Karlsson m. fl., 2006a). Tre olika scenarier för ozonbelastning analyserades: 1. Nuvarande ozonbelastning (2006-2012). 2. Ett scenario där målvärdet för ozon och växtlighet inom miljömålet Frisk Luft inte överskrids vid någon plats i landet. 3. Ett förindustriellt scenario i avsaknad av ozonbelastning, dvs där ozonhalten 80 μg/m3 aldrig överskreds och där AOT40 april-september således var noll över hela Sverige. Uppskattningar har gjorts för tillväxten hos några viktiga trädslag samt för skördeutbytet för vissa viktiga jordbruksgrödor. Utifrån en genomgång av ny vetenskaplig kunskap som framkommit sedan den föregående studien 2006, föreslås en höjning av den negativa ozoneffekten på stamtillväxten hos gran från -2 % till -5 % per 20 000 μg/m3 timmar AOT40 april-september. AOT40 20 000 μg/m3 timmar är en vanligt förekommande nivå på ozonbelastningen vid utsatta platser i södra Sverige. För tall föreslås samma ozoneffekt på stamtillväxten som hos gran. För lövträd föreslås att ozoneffekten på stamtillväxten kvarstår på -8 % per 20 000 μg/m3 timmar AOT40 april-september. Dos-respons-relationerna för vete inom konventionen om gränsöverskridande luftföroreningar (LRTAP) har i viss utsträckning uppdaterats sedan 2006. På grund av dessa uppdateringer har dos-responssambandet för vete förändrats något jämfört med föregående studie. Förändringen är dock av mycket liten betydelse för tolkningen av resultaten. Nuvarande ozonbelastning 2006-2012 beräknades minska skogstillväxten som ett summerat värde för alla landsdelar och trädslag i Sverige med 2.9 Mm3 år-1, i jämförelse med ett förindustriellt scenario i avsaknad av ozonbelastning, vilket motsvarar en procentuell minskning av tillväxten på -3.2 %. Detta värde varierade mellan -1.6 och -4,9 %, beroende på landsdel och trädslag. I ett scenario där målvärdet för ozon och växtlighet inom miljömålet Frisk Luft inte överskrids reducerades den negativa inverkan av ozon till ett medelvärde på -1.2 %, och varierade mellan -0.6 och -2.1 %. Det ekonomiska värdet av den minskade skogstillväxten beroende på nuvarande ozonbelastning beräknades till 733 MSEK år-1, ett värde som är mer än dubbelt så högt jämfört med motsvarande värde som beräknades vid den tidigare studien 2006. Skillnaden beror på att den ozonbelastning som beräknades över Sverige var högre i den nya studien, särskilt i norra Sverige, men framför allt beror det på höjning av den negativa ozoneffekten på stamtillväxten hos gran och tall. I det scenario där målvärdet för ozon och växtlighet inom miljömålet Frisk Luft inte överskrids beräknades det ekonomiska värdet för tillväxtnedsättningen orsakad av ozon till 293 MSEK år-1, det vill säga mer än en halvering jämfört med nuvarande ozonbelastning. De summerade skördeförlusterna beroende på nuvarande ozonbelastning vad gäller alla sädesslag för alla delar av Sverige beräknades separat för olika år och uppgick till som högst 88 kton för 2006 och till 6 kton för 2008. Motsvande värden för potatis uppgick till 52 kton för 2006 och till 14 kton för 2012. De beräknade ekonomiska värdena för dessa summerade skördenedsättningar beräknades till i medeltal 180 MSEK år-1. Mellanårsvariationen var dock stor och för 2006 beräknades ett samlat värde av 420 MSEK år-1. För ett scenario där målvärdet för ozon och växtlighet inom miljömålet Frisk Luft inte överskrids beräknades ett samlat värde av ozonets negativa inverkan på skördeutbytet till i medeltal 74 MSEK år-1. Sammantaget beräknades det ekonomiska värdet för inverkan av nuvarande ozonbelastning på skogstillväxt och skördebortfall inom jordbruket i Sverige till 913 MSEK år-1. Motsvarande värde för ett scenario där målvärdet för ozon och växtlighet inom miljömålet Frisk Luft inte överskrids vid någon plats i landet uppgick till 367 MSEK år-1. I bägge fallen gäller en jämförelse med ett förindustriellt scenario i avsaknad av ozonbelastning, dvs när ozonkoncentrationerna aldrig överskred 80 μg/m3 (40 ppb).
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| 2. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Past, present and future concentrations of ground-level ozone and potential impacts on ecosystems and human health in northern Europe
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697. ; 576, s. 22-35
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This reviewsummarizes newinformation on the current status of ground-level ozone in Europe north of the Alps. There has been a re-distribution in the hourly ozone concentrations in northern Europe during 1990–2015. The highest concentrations during summer daytime hours have decreased while the summer night-time and winter day- and night-time concentrations have increased. The yearly maximum 8-h mean concentrations ([O3]8h,max), a metric used to assess ozone impacts on human health, have decreased significantly during 1990–2015 at four out of eight studied sites in Fennoscandia and northern UK. Also the annual number of days when the yearly [O3]8h,max exceeded the EU Environmental Quality Standard (EQS) target value of 60 ppb has decreased. In contrast, the number of days per year when the yearly [O3]8h,max exceeded 35 ppb has increased significantly at two sites, while it decreased at one far northern site. [O3]8h,max is predicted not to exceed 60 ppb in northern UK and Fennoscandia after 2020. However, theWHO EQS target value of 50 ppb will still be exceeded. The AOT40 May– July and AOT40 April–September metrics, used for the protection of vegetation, have decreased significantly at three and four sites, respectively. The EQS for the protection of forests, AOT40 April–September 5000 ppb h, is projected to no longer be exceeded for most of northern Europe sometime before the time period 2040–2059. However, if the EQS is based on Phytotoxic Ozone Dose (POD), POD1, it may still be exceeded by 2050. The increasing trend for low and medium range ozone concentrations in combination with a decrease in high concentrations indicate that a new control strategy, with a larger geographical scale than Europe and including methane, is needed for ozone abatement in northern Europe.
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| 3. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Stem growth of Norway spruce in south Sweden in relation to soil moisture, nitrogen deposition, ozone exposure and meteorological variables
- 2023
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Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier. - 0378-1127 .- 1872-7042. ; 549
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Associations between the annual stem basal area increment growth and soil moisture, nitrogen deposition, ground level ozone exposure, air temperatures and the timing of the start of the growing season have been investigated for a twenty four-year period, 1990–2013, based on tree-ring width measurements from seventeen monitoring sites with Norway spruce (Picea abies) forests in southern Sweden. The stem growth-environment associations were analyzed using a fixed effect regression model, with annual stem basal area increment (BAI) as the dependent variable and annual values for a soil moisture index, ozone exposure estimated as AOT30, bulk deposition of nitrogen, summed air temperatures above a threshold and the timing of the start of the growing season as explanatory variables. The statistical analysis was made with and without taking clustering of the sampled trees into account, i.e. that several different tree observations were made at the same monitoring site. The annual number of days with soil moisture below a threshold was the only explanatory variable that could be demonstrated to be negatively associated with changes in BAI, regardless of statistical approach. Positive associations between temperature sums as well as nitrogen deposition with changes in BAI were indicated by low p values using standard p-values, but not when clustering was taken into consideration. Associations between ozone exposure as well as the start date of the growing season with changes in BAI could not be demonstrated since the estimated p values were high regardless of statistical approach. The results show that soil water deficit may considerably limit forest growth in northern European forests.
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| 4. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, et al.
(författare)
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The vulnerability of northern European vegetation to ozone damage in a changing climate An assessment based on current knowledge
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The potential vulnerability of vegetation at northern latitudes to ozone damage was assessed based on current knowledge with regard to air ozone concentrations and leaf ozone uptake as well as to plant traits affecting ozone tolerance. The focus was on the northern European arctic, alpine and northern boreal vegetation zones, with a special focus on high-altitude vegetation. In particular, we analysed if there are increasing risks for ozone impacts on northern vegetation due to high spring ozone concentrations in relation to climate change induced shifts such as e.g. an earlier start of the growing season. The ozone concentrations in these regions are characterized by the influence of a combination of conditions caused by high latitudes and high altitudes. Ozone concentrations increase with altitude and the difference in ozone concentrations between day and night are smaller at high-altitude and high-latitude sites. Summer periods with long daylight conditions potentially promote the leaf ozone uptake through the open stomata. The aims of this report were: • To assess the current state of knowledge regarding the potential vulnerability of far northern vegetation to ozone damage, today and in the future • To provide advice for policy implications regarding necessary ozone precursor emission abatement • To provide advice for future research and monitoring of ozone impacts on the vegetation at northern latitudes Ongoing environmental changes affecting far northern latitude ecosystems were reviewed. Current and novel methods were described for how to estimate the time of year during which the ozone exposure for vegetation should be accumulated. Time trends for ozone concentrations at northern latitudes were analysed. Ozone episodes with high concentrations at far northern latitudes were described. Source attributions of northern ozone concentrations were analysed. Environmental conditions at far northern latitudes that might be important for ozone damage were evaluated. Plant traits that can influence the ozone vulnerability were discussed. Current experimental results for ozone injury on northern plant species were evaluated. Future scenarios for ozone impact on northern vegetation were discussed. Some important results from the analyses are described below. At high altitudes and high latitudes, the ozone concentrations are relatively similar during day- and night-time. Furthermore, at high latitudes, the long daylight duration during the summer has the potential to increase the duration of the daily period with plant gas exchange and leaf ozone uptake. Therefore, the absorption of ozone through the stomata may potentially be higher at northern latitudes. However, measurements of light intensity and quality at northern sites in combination with a simple calculation example illustrated that this probably was not the case, since the potential added ozone uptake in the early morning and late evening at northern sites may be cancelled out by a lower ozone uptake in the middle of the day, as compared to southern sites. Both data on budburst and data on ecosystem CO2 exchange as well as meteorological observations show that there has been a development towards an earlier start of the growing season during the year, with approximately 0.5 – 1 day per year. Thus, there is clear evidence for an earlier start of the growing season, which is likely to continue. However, the timing of the spring ozone maximum is also shifted towards earlier in the year. There is presently no evidence for an increasing overlap between the growing season and the ozone peak. Despite this, there is a potential for increased ozone uptake to vegetation in spring due to the earlier growing start of vegetation and increased uptake of ozone to vegetation in May. The impact of this on the accumulated phytotoxic ozone dose for northern vegetation needs to be investigated further. The overall conclusions about the present and near future ozone vulnerability of northern vegetation were: • There remain uncertainties regarding to what extent northern vegetation is affected by ozone exposure. • According to current knowledge, we could not find evidence that expected changes in ozone concentrations and climate would make the northern arctic, alpine and subalpine vegetation substantially more vulnerable to ozone than other types of European vegetation. • The risk of significant and lasting negative impact of the current exposure to ozone on northern boreal forests is most likely not greater than for boreonemoral and nemoral forests in southern Fennoscandia. • However, peak ozone concentrations occurring in spring and early summer may affect vegetation at northern latitudes in Fennoscandia since the start of the growing season in the future may occur earlier during the year. The policy implications that can be derived from these conclusions were: • The current state of knowledge implies that ecosystems in the far north are not more susceptible to ozone than vegetation in other parts of Europe. Hence, we cannot advocate for a stronger reduction of ozone precursors emissions based exclusively on the ozone sensitivity of vegetation in the far north. • Policies designed to reduce emissions of ozone precursors to protect vegetation in other parts of Europe as well as in the entire northern hemisphere are likely to suffice to protect vegetation in northern Fennoscandia. There are important remaining knowledge gaps. Our conclusions are based on important, but limited observations. Experimental evidence from investigations specifically designed to study ozone sensitivity of high-altitude vegetation in northern Europe are to a large extent lacking. It is recommended that further experimental research is undertaken to directly compare the ozone sensitivity of plants of high-latitude/high-altitude origin with that of plants (species, genotypes) representative of regions of the southern part of the Nordic region. This research should include the characteristics of the high-latitude climate and other conditions. A specific research question is if the new ozone critical levels for European vegetation based on PODYSPEC (Mapping Manual, 2017) are correct, both regarding calculation methodology as well as impact assessments? In particular, there is a lack of information about the degree of stomata closure during nights in high-latitude area plants. This is important for the modelling of ozone uptake (dry deposition) in these areas and requires coordinated measurement campaigns in close cooperation with modelers. Further research questions may be related to the future development of the northern regions – e.g. oil and gas extraction including flaring, shipping, more tourism and climate change – how will that affect the ozone exposure of in the northern vegetation? Do future ozone precursor emission scenarios describe this correctly? Will warm and dry summers like 2018 become more frequent in connection with climate change, and how will this affect ozone impacts on vegetation? There are currently very few, long term ozone monitoring stations in the arctic and alpine vegetation zones, in particular at high altitudes. Given the expected increase in anthropogenic activities in these areas in combination with climate change, it is strongly recommended to increase the number of high-altitude ozone monitoring sites in these regions.
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| 5. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, 1957, et al.
(författare)
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Utvecklingen vad gäller preciseringar för marknära ozon inför den fördjupade utvärderingen av miljömålet Frisk Luft
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Utvecklingen vad gäller halterna av marknära ozon i norra Europa under de senaste drygt tjugo åren karakteriseras av att de högsta halterna har minskat medan de lägsta och medelhöga halterna har ökat. Stigande hemisfäriska bakgrundshalter förklarar troligen de stigande låga till måttliga ozonhalterna. Årsmaximum av glidande 8 timmars ozonmedelhalt minskar på ett statistiskt säkerställt sätt i södra Sverige, men förändras ej i norra Sverige. Modellberäkningar såväl som trender beräknade från observationer tyder dock på att målvärdet för det maximala 8-timmarsmedelvärdet av ozonhalten, som används för att skydda människors hälsa inom miljökvalitetsmålet Frisk Luft, fortsatt kommer att överskridas år 2050. Det finns ingen statistiskt säkerställd förändring över tid vad gäller inverkan på växtligheten baserat på AOT40. AOT40 överskrider målvärdet som gäller preciseringen inom Frisk Luft, i södra men inte i norra Sverige. Om de Europeiska utsläppen av ozonbildande ämnen till år 2050 minskar i enlighet med framtida utsläppsscenarier kommer dock målvärdet till skydd för växtligheten baserat på AOT40 inte längre överskridas i Sverige och inte heller i stora delar av norra Europa. Dessa scenarie-beräkningar utgår dock från att de hemisfäriska bakgrundhalterna inte ändras nämnvärt. Ozonexponeringen av växtligheten beräknat som ozonflux kommer i södra Sverige dock inte att underskrida det målvärde som används inom LRTAP-konventionen till år 2050.
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| 6. |
- Klingberg, Jenny, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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Declining ozone exposure of European vegetation under climate change and reduced precursor emissions
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 11, s. 5269-5283
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impacts of changes in ozone precursor emissions as well as climate change on the future ozone exposure of the vegetation in Europe were investigated. The ozone exposure is expressed as AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppbO3) as well as PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold Y). A new method is suggested to express how the length of the period during the year when coniferous and evergreen trees are sensitive to ozone might be affected by climate change. Ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were combined with climate simulations based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario and used as input to the Eulerian Chemistry Transport Model MATCH from which projections of ozone concentrations were derived. The ozone exposure of vegetation over Europe expressed as AOT40 was projected to be substantially reduced between the periods 1990–2009 and 2040–2059 to levels which are well below critical levels used for vegetation in the EU directive 2008/50/EC as well as for crops and forests used in the LRTAP convention, despite that the future climate resulted in prolonged yearly ozone sensitive periods. The reduction in AOT40 was mainly driven by the emission reductions, not changes in the climate. For the toxicologically more relevant POD1 index the projected reductions were smaller, but still significant. The values for POD1 for the time period 2040–2059 were not projected to decrease to levels which are below critical levels for forest trees, represented by Norway spruce. This study shows that substantial reductions of ozone precursor emissions have the potential to strongly reduce the future risk for ozone effects on the European vegetation, even if concurrent climate change promotes ozone formation.
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| 7. |
- Pleijel, Håkan, 1958, et al.
(författare)
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Surface Ozone in the Marine Environment—Horizontal Ozone Concentration Gradients in Coastal Areas
- 2013
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0049-6979 .- 1573-2932. ; 224:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Spring/summer surface ozone concentrations, [O3], in coastal environments were investigated: (1) by comparison of coastal and inland monitoring stations with data from a small island >5 km off the coast of southwest Sweden, (2) as a gradient from the coast towards inland in southernmost Sweden. Further, results from the chemical transport model MATCH were used to assess the marine influence on [O3]. It was hypothesised that [O3] is higher on the small island compared to the coast, especially during night and in offshore wind. Another hypothesis was that [O3] declines from the coast towards inland. Our hypotheses were based on observations that the deposition velocity of O3 to sea surfaces is lower than to terrestrial surfaces, and that vertical air mixing is stronger in the marine environment, especially during night. The island experienced 10 % higher [O3] compared to the coast. This difference was larger with offshore (15 %) than onshore wind (9 %). The concentration difference between island and coast was larger during night, but prevailed during day and could not be explained by differences in [NO2] between the sites. The difference in [O3] between the island and the inland site was 20 %. Higher [O3] over the sea, especially during night, was reproduced by MATCH. In the gradient study, [O3] declined from the coast towards inland. Both [O3] and [NO2] were elevated at the coast, indicating that the gradient in [O3] from the coast was not caused by NO titration. The conclusions were that surface [O3] in marine environments is higher than in coastal, and higher in coastal than inland areas, especially during night.
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