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- Exalto, Lieza G, et al.
(författare)
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Midlife risk score for the prediction of dementia four decades later
- 2013
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Ingår i: Alzheimer's & Dementia. - : Wiley. - 1552-5260 .- 1552-5279. ; 10:5, s. 562-570
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to obtain external validation of the only available midlife dementia risk score cardiovascular risk factors , aging and dementia study (CAIDE) constituting age, education, hypertension, obesity, and hyperlipidemia in a larger, more diverse population. Our second aim was to improve the CAIDE risk score by additional midlife risk factors.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study was conducted in an integrated health care delivery system. A total of 9480 Kaiser Permanente members who participated in a health survey study (age range, 40–55 years) from 1964 to 1973 were included in this study. Dementia diagnoses from primary care and medical specialist visits were collected from January 1, 1994 to January 16, 2006, using International Classification of Diseases 9 codes 290.0, 290.1 for “possible dementia,” and 331.0 and 290.4 for “specialist confirmed dementia.” Risk model prediction and validation were examined with the C statistic, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement. Dementia risk per sum score was calculated with Kaplan-Meier estimates.ResultsA total of 2767 participants (25%) were diagnosed with any type of dementia, of which 1011 diagnoses (10.7%) were specialist-confirmed diagnoses. Average time between midlife examination and end of follow-up was 36.1 years. The CAIDE risk score replicated well with a C statistic of 0.75, quite similar to the original CAIDE C statistic of 0.78. The CAIDE score also predicted well within different race strata. Other midlife risk factors (central obesity, depressed mood, diabetes mellitus, head trauma, lung function, and smoking) did not improve predictability. The risk score allowed stratification of participants into those with 40-year low (9%) and high (29%) dementia risk.ConclusionsA combination of modifiable vascular risk factors in midlife is highly predictive of the likelihood of dementia decades later. Possible dementia prevention strategies should point to a life course perspective on maintaining vascular health.
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| 2. |
- Rusanen, Minna, et al.
(författare)
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Heavy smoking in midlife and long-term risk of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia
- 2011
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Ingår i: Archives of Internal Medicine. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0003-9926 .- 1538-3679. ; 171:4, s. 333-339
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Smoking is a risk factor for several life-threatening diseases, but its long-term association with dementia is controversial and somewhat understudied. Our objective was to investigate the long-term association of amount of smoking in middle age on the risk of dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), and vascular dementia (VaD) several decades later in a large, diverse population.METHODS: We analyzed prospective data from a multiethnic population-based cohort of 21,123 members of a health care system who participated in a survey between 1978 and 1985. Diagnoses of dementia, AD, and VaD made in internal medicine, neurology, and neuropsychology were collected from January 1, 1994, to July 31, 2008. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the association between midlife smoking and risk of dementia, AD, and VaD.RESULTS: A total of 5367 people (25.4%) were diagnosed as having dementia (including 1136 cases of AD and 416 cases of VaD) during a mean follow-up period of 23 years. Results were adjusted for age, sex, education, race, marital status, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, body mass index, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, and alcohol use. Compared with nonsmokers, those smoking more than 2 packs a day had an elevated risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.14; 95% CI, 1.65-2.78), AD (adjusted HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.63-4.03), and VaD (adjusted HR, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.20-6.18).CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort, heavy smoking in midlife was associated with a greater than 100% increase in risk of dementia, AD, and VaD more than 2 decades later. These results suggest that the brain is not immune to long-term consequences of heavy smoking.
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