| 1. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 5. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 7. |
- Hong, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Critical thresholds of long-pressure reactivity index and impact of intracranial pressure monitoring methods in traumatic brain injury
- 2024
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Ingår i: Critical Care. - : Springer Nature. - 1364-8535 .- 1466-609X. ; 28:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) has a global mortality rate of about 30%, resulting in acquired life-long disabilities in many survivors. To potentially improve outcomes in this TBI population, the management of secondary injuries, particularly the failure of cerebrovascular reactivity (assessed via the pressure reactivity index; PRx, a correlation between intracranial pressure (ICP) and mean arterial blood pressure (MAP)), has gained interest in the field. However, derivation of PRx requires high-resolution data and expensive technological solutions, as calculations use a short time-window, which has resulted in it being used in only a handful of centers worldwide. As a solution to this, low resolution (longer time-windows) PRx has been suggested, known as Long-PRx or LPRx. Though LPRx has been proposed little is known about the best methodology to derive this measure, with different thresholds and time-windows proposed. Furthermore, the impact of ICP monitoring on cerebrovascular reactivity measures is poorly understood. Hence, this observational study establishes critical thresholds of LPRx associated with long-term functional outcome, comparing different time-windows for calculating LPRx as well as evaluating LPRx determined through external ventricular drains (EVD) vs intraparenchymal pressure device (IPD) ICP monitoring.Methods: The study included a total of n = 435 TBI patients from the Karolinska University Hospital. Patients were dichotomized into alive vs. dead and favorable vs. unfavorable outcomes based on 1-year Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS). Pearson's chi-square values were computed for incrementally increasing LPRx or ICP thresholds against outcome. The thresholds that generated the greatest chi-squared value for each LPRx or ICP parameter had the highest outcome discriminatory capacity. This methodology was also completed for the segmentation of the population based on EVD, IPD, and time of data recorded in hospital stay.Results: LPRx calculated with 10-120-min windows behaved similarly, with maximal chi-square values ranging at around a LPRx of 0.25-0.35, for both survival and favorable outcome. When investigating the temporal relations of LPRx derived thresholds, the first 4 days appeared to be the most associated with outcomes. The segmentation of the data based on intracranial monitoring found limited differences between EVD and IPD, with similar LPRx values around 0.3.Conclusion: Our work suggests that the underlying prognostic factors causing impairment in cerebrovascular reactivity can, to some degree, be detected using lower resolution PRx metrics (similar found thresholding values) with LPRx found clinically using as low as 10 min-by-minute samples of MAP and ICP. Furthermore, EVD derived LPRx with intermittent cerebrospinal fluid draining, seems to present similar outcome capacity as IPD. This low-resolution low sample LPRx method appears to be an adequate substitute for the clinical prognostic value of PRx and may be implemented independent of ICP monitoring method when PRx is not feasible, though further research is warranted.
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| 8. |
- Kumar, Umesh, et al.
(författare)
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Multi-omics approaches in plant-microbe interactions hold enormous promise for sustainable agriculture
- 2023
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Ingår i: Agronomy. - Switzerland : MDPI. - 2073-4395. ; 13:7
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plants do not grow in isolation; they interact with diverse microorganisms in their habitat.The development of techniques to identify and quantify the microbial diversity associated with plantscontributes to our understanding of the complexity of environmental influences to which plants areexposed. Identifying interactions which are beneficial to plants can enable us to promote healthygrowth with the minimal application of agrochemicals. Beneficial plant–microbial interactionsassist plants in acquiring inaccessible nutrients to promote plant growth and help them to copewith various stresses and pathogens. An increased knowledge of plant–microbial diversity can beapplied to meet the growing demand for biofertilizers for use in organic agriculture. This reviewhighlights the beneficial effects of soil–microbiota and biofertilizers on improving plant health andcrop yields. We propose that a multi–omics approach is appropriate to evaluate viability in thecontext of sustainable agriculture.
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| 9. |
- Lindblad, Caroline, et al.
(författare)
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Current state of high-fidelity multimodal monitoring in traumatic brain injury
- 2022
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Ingår i: Acta Neurochirurgica. - : Springer Nature. - 0001-6268 .- 0942-0940. ; 164:12, s. 3091-3100
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Multimodality monitoring of patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is primarily performed in neurocritical care units to prevent secondary harmful brain insults and facilitate patient recovery. Several metrics are commonly monitored using both invasive and non-invasive techniques. The latest Brain Trauma Foundation guidelines from 2016 provide recommendations and thresholds for some of these. Still, high-level evidence for several metrics and thresholds is lacking. Methods Regarding invasive brain monitoring, intracranial pressure (ICP) forms the cornerstone, and pressures above 22 mmHg should be avoided. From ICP, cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) (mean arterial pressure (MAP)-ICP) and pressure reactivity index (PRx) (a correlation between slow waves MAP and ICP as a surrogate for cerebrovascular reactivity) may be derived. In terms of regional monitoring, partial brain tissue oxygen pressure (PbtO(2)) is commonly used, and phase 3 studies are currently ongoing to determine its added effect to outcome together with ICP monitoring. Cerebral microdialysis (CMD) is another regional invasive modality to measure substances in the brain extracellular fluid. International consortiums have suggested thresholds and management strategies, in spite of lacking high-level evidence. Although invasive monitoring is generally safe, iatrogenic hemorrhages are reported in about 10% of cases, but these probably do not significantly affect long-term outcome. Non-invasive monitoring is relatively recent in the field of TBI care, and research is usually from single-center retrospective experiences. Near-infrared spectrometry (NIRS) measuring regional tissue saturation has been shown to be associated with outcome. Transcranial doppler (TCD) has several tentative utilities in TBI like measuring ICP and detecting vasospasm. Furthermore, serial sampling of biomarkers of brain injury in the blood can be used to detect secondary brain injury development. Conclusions In multimodal monitoring, the most important aspect is data interpretation, which requires knowledge of each metric's strengths and limitations. Combinations of several modalities might make it possible to discern specific pathologic states suitable for treatment. However, the cost-benefit should be considered as the incremental benefit of adding several metrics has a low level of evidence, thus warranting additional research.
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| 10. |
- Malik, Yashpal Singh, et al.
(författare)
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Coronavirus Disease Pandemic (COVID-19) : Challenges and a Global Perspective
- 2020
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Ingår i: Pathogens. - : MDPI AG. - 2076-0817. ; 9:7
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The technology-driven world of the 21st century is currently confronted with a major threat to humankind, represented by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome, coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). As of now, COVID-19 has affected more than 6 million confirmed cases and took 0.39 million human lives. SARS-CoV-2 spreads much faster than its two ancestors, SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome-CoV (MERS-CoV), but has low fatality rates. Our analyses speculate that the efficient replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 might be due to the high-density basic amino acid residues, preferably positioned in close proximity at both the furin-like cleavage sites (S1/S2 and S2 ') within the spike protein. Given the high genomic similarities of SARS-CoV-2 to bat SARS-like CoVs, it is likely that bats serve as a reservoir host for its progenitor. Women and children are less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, while the elderly and people with comorbidities are more prone to serious clinical outcomes, which may be associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and cytokine storm. The cohesive approach amongst researchers across the globe has delivered high-end viral diagnostics. However, home-based point-of-care diagnostics are still under development, which may prove transformative in current COVID-19 pandemic containment. Similarly, vaccines and therapeutics against COVID-19 are currently in the pipeline for clinical trials. In this review, we discuss the noteworthy advancements, focusing on the etiological viral agent, comparative genomic analysis, population susceptibility, disease epidemiology and diagnosis, animal reservoirs, laboratory animal models, disease transmission, therapeutics, vaccine challenges, and disease mitigation measures.
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