| 1. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Haribabu, S., et al.
(författare)
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Effect of Al Addition on the Microstructure and Phase Stability of P91 Ferritic-Martensitic Steel
- 2019
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Ingår i: Metallurgical and Materials Transactions. A. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1073-5623 .- 1543-1940. ; 50:3, s. 1421-1436
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the results of an experimental and computational study carried out to elucidate the effect of Al on the microstructure and phase stability of P91 F/M steel in as-cast, homogenized and normalized conditions. Al-added steels followed ‘Ferritic-Austenitic’ mode of solidification and the as-cast microstructures consisted of δ-ferrite + α′-martensite, the volume fraction of ferrite and hardness of martensite increased with Al concentration. Heat treatments and DSC experiments confirmed increased stability for δ-ferrite with Al addition. Systematic change in the phase transformations temperatures and volume fraction of equilibrium phases due to Al addition was estimated with the help of Thermo-Calc®. Al addition promoted the formation of AlN which was confirmed through electron microscopy-based investigations. AlN dissolution temperature was always above γ-loop which made it impossible to dissolve during austenization. With the help of Scheil and equilibrium simulations using Thermo-Calc®, elemental partitioning between δ-ferrite and α′ phases was found to be the reason for higher hardness of martensite. Based on experimental evidences, it is concluded that except in the case of 0.48 wt pct Al-added steel it is impossible to obtain single phase γ-field (without ferrite) at high temperature thereby a fully martensite structure on cooling.
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| 3. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 4. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 5. |
- Selvavinayagam, Sivaprakasam T., et al.
(författare)
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Clinical characteristics and novel mutations of omicron subvariant XBB in Tamil Nadu, India - a cohort study
- 2023
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Ingår i: LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH - SOUTHEAST ASIA. - : ELSEVIER. - 2772-3682. ; 19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Despite the continued vaccination efforts, there had been a surge in breakthrough infections, and the emergence of the B.1.1.529 omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in India. There is a paucity of information globally on the role of newer XBB variants in community transmission. Here, we investigated the mutational patterns among hospitalised patients infected with the XBB omicron sub-variant, and checked if there was any association between the rise in the number of COVID-19 cases and the observed novel mutations in Tamil Nadu, India. Methods Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs, collected from symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 patients were subjected to real-time PCR followed by Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) to rule out the ambiguity of mutations in viruses isolated from the patients (n = 98). Using the phylogenetic association, the mutational patterns were used to corroborate clinico-demographic characteristics and disease severity among the patients. Findings Overall, we identified 43 mutations in the S gene across 98 sequences, of which two were novel mutations (A27S and T747I) that have not been reported previously with XBB sub-variants in the available literature. Additionally, the XBB sequences from our cohort had more mutations than omicron B.1.1.529. The phylogenetic analysis comprising six major branches clearly showed convergent evolution of XBB. Our data suggests that age, and underlying conditions (e.g., diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease) or secondary complications confers increased susceptibility to infection rather than vaccination status or prior exposure. Many vaccinated individuals showed evidence of a breakthrough infection, with XBB.3 being the predominant variant identified in the study population. Interpretation Our study indicates that the XBB variant is highly evasive from available vaccines and may be more transmissible, and potentially could emerge as the 'next' predominant variant, which likely could overwhelm the existing variants of SARS-CoV-2 omicron variants.Funding National Health Mission (India), SIDA SARC, VINNMER (Sweden), ORIP/NIH (USA).Copyright (c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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| 6. |
- Selvavinayagam, Sivaprakasam T., et al.
(författare)
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Genomic surveillance of omicron B.1.1.529 SARS‐CoV‐2 and its variants between December 2021 and March 2023 in Tamil Nadu, India—A state‐wide prospective longitudinal study
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Medical Virology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0146-6615 .- 1096-9071. ; 96:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A state-wide prospective longitudinal investigation of the genomic surveillance of the omicron B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant and its sublineages in Tamil Nadu, India, was conducted between December 2021 and March 2023. The study aimed to elucidate their mutational patterns and their genetic interrelationship in the Indian population. The study identified several unique mutations at different time-points, which likely could attribute to the changing disease characteristics, transmission, and pathogenicity attributes of omicron variants. The study found that the omicron variant is highly competent in its mutating potentials, and that it continues to evolve in the general population, likely escaping from natural as well as vaccine-induced immune responses. Our findings suggest that continuous surveillance of viral variants at the global scenario is warranted to undertake intervention measures against potentially precarious SARS-CoV-2 variants and their evolution.
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| 7. |
- Selvavinayagam, Sivaprakasam T., et al.
(författare)
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Low SARS-CoV-2 viral load among vaccinated individuals infected with Delta B.1.617.2 and Omicron BA.1.1.529 but not with Omicron BA.1.1 and BA.2 variants
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers In Public Health. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-2565. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the global population is indicative of the development of selective advantages in emerging virus strains. Here, we performed a case-control investigation of the clinical and demographic characteristics, clinical history, and virological markers to predict disease progression in hospitalized adults for COVID-19 between December 2021 and January 2022 in Chennai, India. COVID-19 diagnosis was made by a commercial TaqPath COVID-19 RT-PCR, and WGS was performed with the Ion Torrent Next Generation Sequencing System. High-quality (<5% of N) complete sequences of 73 Omicron B.1.1.529 variants were randomly selected for phylogenetic analysis. SARS-CoV-2 viral load, number of comorbidities, and severe disease presentation were independently associated with a shorter time-to-death. Strikingly, this was observed among individuals infected with Omicron BA.2 but not among those with the BA.1.1.529, BA.1.1, or the Delta B.1.617.2 variants. Phylogenetic analysis revealed severe cases predominantly clustering under the BA.2 lineage. Sequence analyses showed 30 mutation sites in BA.1.1.529 and 33 in BA.1.1. The mutations unique to BA.2 were T19I, L24S, P25del, P26del, A27S, V213G, T376A, D405N and R408S. Low SARS-CoV-2 viral load among vaccinated individuals infected with Delta B.1.617.2 and the Omicron BA.1.1.529 variant but not with Omicron BA.1.1 or BA.2 suggests that the newer strains are largely immune escape variants. The number of vaccine doses received was independently associated with increased odds of developing asymptomatic disease or recovery. We propose that the novel mutations reported herein could likely bear a significant impact on the clinical characteristics, disease progression, and epidemiological aspects of COVID-19. Surging rates of mutations and the emergence of eclectic variants of SARS-CoV-2 appear to impact disease dynamics.
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| 8. |
- Selvavinayagam, Sivaprakasam T, et al.
(författare)
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Plasma CXCL8 and MCP-1 as surrogate plasma biomarkers of latent tuberculosis infection among household contacts-A cross-sectional study
- 2023
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Ingår i: PLOS Global Public Health. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 2767-3375. ; 3:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Early detection of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is critical to TB elimination in the current WHO vision of End Tuberculosis Strategy. The study investigates whether detecting plasma cytokines could aid in diagnosing LTBI across household contacts (HHCs) positive for IGRA, HHCs negative for IGRA, and healthy controls. The plasma cytokines were measured using a commercial Bio-Plex Pro Human Cytokine 17-plex assay. Increased plasma CXCL8 and decreased MCP-1, TNF-a, and IFN-? were associated with LTBI. Regression analysis showed that a combination of CXCL8 and MCP-1 increased the risk of LTBI among HHCs to 14-fold. Our study suggests that CXCL-8 and MCP-1 could serve as the surrogate biomarkers of LTBI, particularly in resource-limited settings. Further laboratory investigations are warranted before extrapolating CXCL8 and MCP-1 for their usefulness as surrogate biomarkers of LTBI in resource-limited settings.
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| 9. |
- Selvavinayagam, Sivaprakasam T., et al.
(författare)
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Platelet-Large Cell Ratio and Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate are Surrogate Predictors of Latent Tuberculosis Infection
- 2024
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Aims: Prompt detection and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) holds the key to global TB elimination. The lack of an established test for predicting LTBI poses a substantial challenge in disease management. Here, we identified the biochemical and hematological markers of LTBI, and correlated their usefulness to discriminate LTBI from healthy controls. Main Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional investigation and correlated the various biochemical and hematological markers for detecting LTBI among household contacts (HHCs) of TB infection. Our study included 90 individuals – 30 healthy controls, 30 interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) positive HHCs, and 30 IGRA-negative HHCs. Biomarkers were measured using designated auto analyzers. Key Findings: ESR, MPV, D-dimer, P-LCR, and PDW were significantly higher among LTBI subjects. ESR, PDW, and P-LCR were markedly associated with LTBI. Multivariate analysis showed that either ESR or P-LCR greater than their respective predetermined cut-off values showed higher odds of developing LTBI. Our study demonstrated that ESR and P-LCR are good surrogate markers for diagnosing LTBI. Also, significantly low ferritin in females and MCHC in males belonging to the HHC/IGRA-ve were observed. Significance: The ESR and P-LCR could aid in predicting LTBI among HHCs. Further, the low serum ferritin is associated with TB resisters.
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| 10. |
- Vimali, Jaisheela, et al.
(författare)
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HIV-HPgV Co-Infected Individuals Display Functional MAIT and Follicular T Cells Irrespective of PD-1 Expression
- 2023
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Human Pegivirus (HPgV) appears to alter the clinical outcome of HIV disease by modulating T-cell homeostasis, chemokine/cytokine production, as well as by reducing T-cell activation, and proliferation to limit HIV replication. Here, we evaluated if HPgV had any ‘favorable’ impact on the quantity and quality of T cells in HIV-infected individuals. T-cell subsets such as CD4lo, CD4hi, and CD8+ T cells, CD4+ MAIT cells, CD8+ MAIT cells, follicular helper T cells (Tfh), and follicular cytotoxic T cells (Tfc) were characterized based on the expression of markers associated with immune activation (CD69, ICOS), proliferation (ki67), cytokine production (TNF-α, IFN-γ), and exhaustion (PD-1). HIV+HPgV+ individuals had lower plasma liver transaminase SGOT and GGT (biliary) than those who were HPgV-. HIV/HPgV co-infection was significantly associated with increased absolute CD4+ T-cell counts. HIV+HPgV+ and HIV+HPgV- individuals had highly activated T-cell subsets with high expression of CD69 and ICOS on bulk CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, CD4+ MAIT cells, CD8+ MAIT cells and CXCR5+CD4+ T cells and CXCR5+CD8+ T cells as compared to healthy controls. Irrespective of activation markers these cells also expressed higher levels of PD-1 on CD4+ T and CD8+ T cells and their counterparts. However, exploring their functionality based on the mitogen stimulation demonstrated higher levels of cytokine production by CD4+ MAIT and CD8+ MAIT cells as compared to healthy controls. Decrease in absolute CD4+ T cell counts correlated positively with intracellular IFN-γ levels by CD4lo T cells, whereas increase of the same correlated inversely with TNF-α in the CD4lo T cells of HIV+HPgV+ individuals. Together, we found that HIV/HPgV co-infected individuals display functional CD4+ and CD8+ MAIT, Tfh and Tfc cells irrespective of PD-1 expression.
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