| 1. |
- Barack, Leor, et al.
(författare)
-
Black holes, gravitational waves and fundamental physics : a roadmap
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Classical and quantum gravity. - : IOP Publishing. - 0264-9381 .- 1361-6382. ; 36:14
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The grand challenges of contemporary fundamental physics dark matter, dark energy, vacuum energy, inflation and early universe cosmology, singularities and the hierarchy problem all involve gravity as a key component. And of all gravitational phenomena, black holes stand out in their elegant simplicity, while harbouring some of the most remarkable predictions of General Relativity: event horizons, singularities and ergoregions. The hitherto invisible landscape of the gravitational Universe is being unveiled before our eyes: the historical direct detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration marks the dawn of a new era of scientific exploration. Gravitational-wave astronomy will allow us to test models of black hole formation, growth and evolution, as well as models of gravitational-wave generation and propagation. It will provide evidence for event horizons and ergoregions, test the theory of General Relativity itself, and may reveal the existence of new fundamental fields. The synthesis of these results has the potential to radically reshape our understanding of the cosmos and of the laws of Nature. The purpose of this work is to present a concise, yet comprehensive overview of the state of the art in the relevant fields of research, summarize important open problems, and lay out a roadmap for future progress. This write-up is an initiative taken within the framework of the European Action on 'Black holes, Gravitational waves and Fundamental Physics'.
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
- Mishra, A, et al.
(författare)
-
Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 615:7954, s. 874-883
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.
|
|
| 6. |
- Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel, et al.
(författare)
-
Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X. ; 159, s. 260-274
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the "According to Our Current Knowledge" (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.
|
|
| 7. |
- Acar-Denizli, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Systemic phenotype related to primary Sjögren's syndrome in 279 patients carrying isolated anti-La/SSB antibodies
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Clinical and Experimental Rheumatology. - : CLINICAL & EXPER RHEUMATOLOGY. - 0392-856X .- 1593-098X. ; 38:4; Suppl. 126, s. S85-S94
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To evaluate the systemic phenotype associated with the presence of isolated anti-La/SSB antibodies in a large international registry of patients with primary Sjogren's syndrome (pSS) fulfilling the 2002 classification criteria.Methods: The Big Data Sjogren Project Consortium is an international, multicentre registry created in 2014. Baseline clinical information from leading centres on clinical research in SS of the 5 continents was collected. Combination patterns of anti-Ro/SSA-La/SSB antibodies at the time of diagnosis defined the following four immunological phenotypes: double positive (combined Ro/SSA and La/SSB,) isolated anti-Ro/SSA, isolated anti-La/SSB, and immunonegative.Results: The cohort included 12,084 patients (11,293 females, mean 52.4 years) with recorded ESSDAI scores available. Among them, 279 (2.3%) had isolated anti-La/SSB antibodies. The mean total ESSDAI score at diagnosis of patients with pSS carrying isolated anti-La/SSB was 6.0, and 80.4% of patients had systemic activity (global ESSDAI score >= 1) at diagnosis. The domains with the highest frequency of active patients were the biological (42.8%), glandular (36.8%) and articular (31.2%) domains. Patients with isolated anti-La/ SSB showed a higher frequency of active patients in all ESSDAI domains but two (articular and peripheral nerve) in comparison with immune-negative patients, and even a higher absolute frequency in six clinical ESSDAI domains in comparison with patients with isolated anti-Ro/SSA. In addition, patients with isolated anti-La/SSB showed a higher frequency of active patients in two ESSDAI domains (pulmonary and glandular) with respect to the most active immunological subset (double-positive antibodies). Meanwhile, systemic activity detected in patients with isolated anti-La/SSB was overwhelmingly low. Even in ESSDAI domains where patients with isolated anti-La/SSB had the highest frequencies of systemic activity (lymphadenopathy and muscular), the percentage of patients with moderate or high activity was lower in comparison with the combined Ro/SSA and La/SSB group.Conclusion: Patients carrying isolated La/SSB antibodies represent a very small subset of patients with a systemic SS phenotype characterised by a significant frequency of active patients in most clinical ESSDAI domains but with a relative low frequency of the highest severe organ-specific involvements. Primary SS still remains the best clinical diagnosis for this subset of patients.
|
|
| 8. |
- Anguelovski, Isabelle, et al.
(författare)
-
Does greening generate exclusive residential real estate development? Contrasting experiences from North America and Europe
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Urban Forestry and Urban Greening. - 1618-8667. ; 101
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the branding of a city as green increasingly serving to amplify attractiveness andinvestment while also contributing to patterns of green gentrification, the incentive to link real estate development and green space is growing. Yet, little is known about the extent to which this incentive has generated a spatial relationship between green space and newly constructed housing at the city-wide level and in ways that can be compared between cities. This gap in knowledge makes it difficult to precisely indicate the implications for housing rights, affordability, and broader goals of urban green justice. In response, this study explores quantitative trends in 26 mid-sized North American and European cities, utilizing greening and real estate data from the last three decades. Results show that greening becomes a more significant driver of development over time and operates to attract development in a growing number of cities, although more so in US cities. Next, in order to contextualize the quantitative results, we employ qualitative field data gathered through field work in Atlanta and Amsterdam. We contrast the greening and development trajectories of these cities by examining implications for housing rights and social justice, accounting for the fact that those cities exhibit different green gentrification trends, as demonstrated in the literature. Green gentrification is indeed a proxy for understanding housing justice implications in the relationship between greening and development. We find that Amsterdam's legacy of housing rights and policies acts as a protection against growing inequities embedded in the relationship between urban greening, development, and gentrification. In contrast, Atlanta embodies patterns of historic racial segregation and continued gentrification of Black neighborhoods which urban greening has further intensified. This analysis shows that greening can attract real estate development across a city, but the implications need not always be harmful to social equity.
|
|
| 9. |
|
|
| 10. |
- Biskaborn, Boris K., et al.
(författare)
-
Permafrost is warming at a global scale
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
|
|
