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- Calderón-Contreras, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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A regional PECS node built from place-based social-ecological sustainability research in Latin America and the Caribbean
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecosystems and People. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2639-5908 .- 2639-5916. ; 18:1, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainability requires a combination of meaningful co-production of locally relevant solutions, synthesis of insights gained across regions, and increased cooperation between science, policy and practice. The Programme for Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) has been coordinating Place-Based Social-Ecological Sustainability Research (PBSESR) across the globe and emphasizes the need for regional scientific nodes from diverse biocultural regions to inform sustainability science and action. In this paper, we assess the strengths of the PBSESR communities in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). We provide an overview of PBSESR literature associated with this region and highlight the achievements of two prominent regional networks: The Social-Ecological Systems and Sustainability Research Network from Mexico (SocioEcoS) and the South American Institute for Resilience and Sustainability Studies from Uruguay (SARAS Institute). Finally, we identify the potential in these nodes to constitute a regional PECS node in Latin America and discuss the capacity needed to ensure such function. The results of the literature review show that while still loosely interconnected across the region, networks play key roles in connecting otherwise cloistered teams and we illustrate how the SocioEcoS network (focusing on transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge towards sustainability) and the SARAS Institute (focusing on innovative approaches for looking at complex social-ecological problems, rooted in slow science and arts) operate as key connectors in the region. We conclude that these organizations combined can embody a Latin American node for PECS, and would thereby not only contribute to regional but also global capacities to advance the sustainability agenda.
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| 4. |
- Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel, et al.
(författare)
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Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment
- 2018
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X. ; 159, s. 260-274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the "According to Our Current Knowledge" (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.
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- Biskaborn, Boris K., et al.
(författare)
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Permafrost is warming at a global scale
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
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| 7. |
- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(författare)
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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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| 8. |
- Chazdon, Robin L., et al.
(författare)
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Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics
- 2016
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 2:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km2 of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.
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| 9. |
- Cohen, Joachim, et al.
(författare)
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Differences in place of death between lung cancer and COPD patients : a 14-country study using death certificate data
- 2017
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Ingår i: npj Primary Care Respiratory Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2055-1010. ; 27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer are leading causes of death with comparable symptoms at the end of life. Cross-national comparisons of place of death, as an important outcome of terminal care, between people dying from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer have not been studied before. We collected population death certificate data from 14 countries (year: 2008), covering place of death, underlying cause of death, and demographic information. We included patients dying from lung cancer or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and used descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regressions to describe patterns in place of death. Of 5,568,827 deaths, 5.8% were from lung cancer and 4.4% from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Among lung cancer decedents, home deaths ranged from 12.5% in South Korea to 57.1% in Mexico, while hospital deaths ranged from 27.5% in New Zealand to 77.4% in France. In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients, the proportion dying at home ranged from 10.4% in Canada to 55.4% in Mexico, while hospital deaths ranged from 41.8% in Mexico to 78.9% in South Korea. Controlling for age, sex, and marital status, patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were significantly less likely die at home rather than in hospital in nine countries. Our study found in almost all countries that those dying from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as compared with those from lung cancer are less likely to die at home and at a palliative care institution and more likely to die in a hospital or a nursing home. This might be due to less predictable disease trajectories and prognosis of death in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
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| 10. |
- de Miguel Ramos, Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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Synergies and Trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals : The Case of Spain
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 12:24
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The United Nations plans have marked global sustainable development for more than two decades. Most of the developed and developing countries have adopted these plans to achieve the Agenda 2030, currently formed by the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis of the interactions between the SDGs is a growing area in research and of interest for governments. However, studies on how positive correlations can improve deteriorated goals are scarce for countries to date. This study aims at filling this gap by finding and quantifying the synergies and trade-offs among the SDGs of Spain. During the years 2000-2019, almost 80% of the SDG targets had significant interactions, either positive (synergy) or negative (trade-off). SDG 4 (quality education), SDG 5 (gender Equality) and SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) contained the largest number of positive interactions, more than 60% in all of them. SDG 3 (good health and wellbeing) was strongly linked with indicators from SDG 4 (quality education) and also SDG 6 (clean water and sanitation). Furthermore, indicators from SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) shared a high correlation with the ones from SGD 12 (responsible consumption and production) and SDG 15 (life on land). SDG 1 (no poverty), 2 (zero hunger), 6 (clean water and sanitation), 8 (decent work and economic growth) and 11 (sustainable cities and communities) had the slowest evolution during the years 2000-2019, showing contractions in some instances. We developed a regression model to assess the influence that selected targets have had on a less evolved target (target 8.6-proportion of youth not in education, employment or training). We managed to clarify high influence from target 1.3 (unemployment compensations), target 8.4 (domestic material consumption) and target 10.5 (non-performing loans) on the dependent variable. Identifying numerical dependencies between the SDGs may help nations to develop a roadmap where targets work as cogwheel towards achieving the Agenda 2030.
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