| 1. |
- Pfeiffer, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting the replicability of social and behavioural science claims in a crisis: The COVID-19 Preprint Replication Project
- 2023
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Replications are important for assessing the reliability of published findings. However, they are costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything. Accurate, fast, lower-cost alternatives such as eliciting predictions could accelerate assessment for rapid policy implementation in a crisis. We elicited judgments from participants on 100 claims from preprints about an emerging area of research (COVID-19 pandemic) using an interactive structured elicitation protocol, and we conducted 29 new high-powered replications. After interacting with their peers, participant groups with lower task expertise (‘beginners’) updated their estimates and confidence in their judgements significantly more than groups with greater task expertise (‘experienced’). For experienced individuals, the average accuracy was 0.57 (95% CI: [0.53, 0.61]) after interaction, and they correctly classified 61% of claims; beginners’ average accuracy was 0.58 (95% CI: [0.54, 0.62]), correctly classifying 69% of claims. The difference in accuracy between groups was not statistically significant, and their judgments on the full set of claims were correlated (r=.48). These results suggest that both beginners and more experienced participants using a structured process have some ability to make better-than-chance predictions about the reliability of ‘fast science’ under conditions of high uncertainty. However, given the importance of such assessments for making evidence-based critical decisions in a crisis, more research is required to understand who the right experts in forecasting replicability are and how their judgements ought to be elicited.
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| 2. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 3. |
- Jang, Seon-Kyeong, et al.
(författare)
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Rare genetic variants explain missing heritability in smoking.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature human behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 6:11, s. 1577-1586
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Common genetic variants explain less variation in complex phenotypes than inferred from family-based studies, and there is a debate on the source of this 'missing heritability'. We investigated the contribution of rare genetic variants to tobacco use with whole-genome sequences from up to 26,257 unrelated individuals of European ancestries and 11,743 individuals of African ancestries. Across four smoking traits, single-nucleotide-polymorphism-based heritability ([Formula: see text]) was estimated from 0.13 to 0.28 (s.e., 0.10-0.13) in European ancestries, with 35-74% of it attributable to rare variants with minor allele frequencies between 0.01% and 1%. These heritability estimates are 1.5-4 times higher than past estimates based on common variants alone and accounted for 60% to 100% of our pedigree-based estimates of narrow-sense heritability ([Formula: see text], 0.18-0.34). In the African ancestry samples, [Formula: see text] was estimated from 0.03 to 0.33 (s.e., 0.09-0.14) across the four smoking traits. These results suggest that rare variants are important contributors to the heritability of smoking.
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| 4. |
- Rowan, John, et al.
(författare)
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Early Pleistocene large mammals from Maka’amitalu, Hadar, lower Awash Valley, Ethiopia
- 2022
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Ingår i: PeerJ. - Corte Medera : PeerJ. - 2167-8359. ; 10, s. e13210-e13210
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Early Pleistocene was a critical time period in the evolution of eastern Africanmammal faunas, but fossil assemblages sampling this interval are poorly known fromEthiopia’s Afar Depression. Field work by the Hadar Research Project in theBusidima Formation exposures (~2.7–0.8 Ma) of Hadar in the lower Awash Valley,resulted in the recovery of an early Homo maxilla (A.L. 666-1) with associated stonetools and fauna from the Maka’amitalu basin in the 1990s. These assemblages aredated to ~2.35 Ma by the Bouroukie Tuff 3 (BKT-3). Continued work by the HadarResearch Project over the last two decades has greatly expanded the faunal collection.Here, we provide a comprehensive account of the Maka’amitalu large mammals(Artiodactyla, Carnivora, Perissodactyla, Primates, and Proboscidea) and discusstheir paleoecological and biochronological significance. The size of the Maka’amitalu assemblage is small compared to those from the Hadar Formation (3.45–2.95 Ma)and Ledi-Geraru (2.8–2.6 Ma) but includes at least 20 taxa. Bovids, suids, andTheropithecus are common in terms of both species richness and abundance, whereascarnivorans, equids, and megaherbivores are rare. While the taxonomic compositionof the Maka’amitalu fauna indicates significant species turnover from the HadarFormation and Ledi-Geraru deposits, turnover seems to have occurred at a constantrate through time as taxonomic dissimilarity between adjacent fossil assemblages isstrongly predicted by their age difference. A similar pattern characterizes functionalecological turnover, with only subtle changes in dietary proportions, body sizeproportions, and bovid abundances across the composite lower Awash sequence.Biochronological comparisons with other sites in eastern Africa suggest that the taxarecovered from the Maka’amitalu are broadly consistent with the reported age of theBKT-3 tuff. Considering the age of BKT-3 and biochronology, a range of 2.4–1.9 Mais most likely for the faunal assemblage.
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| 5. |
- Ahlstrom, Christina A., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for continental-scale dispersal of antimicrobial resistant bacteria by landfill-foraging gulls
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 764, s. 1-10
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anthropogenic inputs into the environment may serve as sources of antimicrobial resistant bacteria and alter the ecology and population dynamics of synanthropic wild animals by providing supplemental forage. In this study, we used a combination of phenotypic and genomic approaches to characterize antimicrobial resistant indicator bacteria, animal telemetry to describe host movement patterns, and a novel modeling approach to combine information from these diverse data streams to investigate the acquisition and long-distance dispersal of antimicrobial resistant bacteria by landfill-foraging gulls. Our results provide evidence that gulls acquire antimicrobial resistant bacteria from anthropogenic sources, which they may subsequently disperse across and between continents via migratory movements. Furthermore, we introduce a flexible modeling framework to estimate the relative dispersal risk of antimicrobial resistant bacteria in western North America and adjacent areas within East Asia, which may be adapted to provide information on the risk of dissemination of other organisms and pathogens maintained by wildlife through space and time. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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| 6. |
- Clark, Christopher E., et al.
(författare)
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Associations Between Systolic Interarm Differences in Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes and Mortality : Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis, Development and Validation of a Prognostic Algorithm: The INTERPRESS-IPD Collaboration
- 2021
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Ingår i: Hypertension. - 1524-4563. ; 77:2, s. 650-661
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Systolic interarm differences in blood pressure have been associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease. We undertook individual participant data meta-analyses to (1) quantify independent associations of systolic interarm difference with mortality and cardiovascular events; (2) develop and validate prognostic models incorporating interarm difference, and (3) determine whether interarm difference remains associated with risk after adjustment for common cardiovascular risk scores. We searched for studies recording bilateral blood pressure and outcomes, established agreements with collaborating authors, and created a single international dataset: the Inter-arm Blood Pressure Difference - Individual Participant Data (INTERPRESS-IPD) Collaboration. Data were merged from 24 studies (53 827 participants). Systolic interarm difference was associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: continuous hazard ratios 1.05 (95% CI, 1.02-1.08) and 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02-1.11), respectively, per 5 mm Hg systolic interarm difference. Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality increased with interarm difference magnitude from a ≥5 mm Hg threshold (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.14]). Systolic interarm differences per 5 mm Hg were associated with cardiovascular events in people without preexisting disease, after adjustment for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (hazard ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.00-1.08]), Framingham (hazard ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.01-1.08]), or QRISK cardiovascular disease risk algorithm version 2 (QRISK2) (hazard ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.18]) cardiovascular risk scores. Our findings confirm that systolic interarm difference is associated with increased all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular events. Blood pressure should be measured in both arms during cardiovascular assessment. A systolic interarm difference of 10 mm Hg is proposed as the upper limit of normal. Registration: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42015031227.
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| 7. |
- Gerkin, Richard C., et al.
(författare)
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Recent Smell Loss Is the Best Predictor of COVID-19 Among Individuals With Recent Respiratory Symptoms
- 2021
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Ingår i: Chemical Senses. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0379-864X .- 1464-3553. ; 46
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In a preregistered, cross-sectional study, we investigated whether olfactory loss is a reliable predictor of COVID-19 using a crowdsourced questionnaire in 23 languages to assess symptoms in individuals self-reporting recent respiratory illness. We quantified changes in chemosensory abilities during the course of the respiratory illness using 0–100 visual analog scales (VAS) for participants reporting a positive (C19+; n = 4148) or negative (C19−; n = 546) COVID-19 laboratory test outcome. Logistic regression models identified univariate and multivariate predictors of COVID-19 status and post-COVID-19 olfactory recovery. Both C19+ and C19− groups exhibited smell loss, but it was significantly larger in C19+ participants (mean ± SD, C19+: −82.5 ± 27.2 points; C19−: −59.8 ± 37.7). Smell loss during illness was the best predictor of COVID-19 in both univariate and multivariate models (ROC AUC = 0.72). Additional variables provide negligible model improvement. VAS ratings of smell loss were more predictive than binary chemosensory yes/no-questions or other cardinal symptoms (e.g., fever). Olfactory recovery within 40 days of respiratory symptom onset was reported for ~50% of participants and was best predicted by time since respiratory symptom onset. We find that quantified smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 amongst those with symptoms of respiratory illness. To aid clinicians and contact tracers in identifying individuals with a high likelihood of having COVID-19, we propose a novel 0–10 scale to screen for recent olfactory loss, the ODoR-19. We find that numeric ratings ≤2 indicate high odds of symptomatic COVID-19 (4 < OR < 10). Once independently validated, this tool could be deployed when viral lab tests are impractical or unavailable.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Fazey, Ioan, et al.
(författare)
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Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth : Visions of future systems and how to get there
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy Research & Social Science. - : Elsevier. - 2214-6296 .- 2214-6326. ; 70
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent.
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| 10. |
- Feng, Shaohong, et al.
(författare)
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Dense sampling of bird diversity increases power of comparative genomics
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 587:7833
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whole-genome sequencing projects are increasingly populating the tree of life and characterizing biodiversity(1-4). Sparse taxon sampling has previously been proposed to confound phylogenetic inference(5), and captures only a fraction of the genomic diversity. Here we report a substantial step towards the dense representation of avian phylogenetic and molecular diversity, by analysing 363 genomes from 92.4% of bird families-including 267 newly sequenced genomes produced for phase II of the Bird 10,000 Genomes (B10K) Project. We use this comparative genome dataset in combination with a pipeline that leverages a reference-free whole-genome alignment to identify orthologous regions in greater numbers than has previously been possible and to recognize genomic novelties in particular bird lineages. The densely sampled alignment provides a single-base-pair map of selection, has more than doubled the fraction of bases that are confidently predicted to be under conservation and reveals extensive patterns of weak selection in predominantly non-coding DNA. Our results demonstrate that increasing the diversity of genomes used in comparative studies can reveal more shared and lineage-specific variation, and improve the investigation of genomic characteristics. We anticipate that this genomic resource will offer new perspectives on evolutionary processes in cross-species comparative analyses and assist in efforts to conserve species. A dataset of the genomes of 363 species from the Bird 10,000 Genomes Project shows increased power to detect shared and lineage-specific variation, demonstrating the importance of phylogenetically diverse taxon sampling in whole-genome sequencing.
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